Most threads talking about a larger/more populous/more powerful Canada go the route of "Southern Expansion," giving Canada more of the Midwest, Great Plains, and PNW. That requires a much earlier POD though, usually War of 1812 or before.
I'm more curious about the capacity to develop Canada within its existing borders. Not even a specific POD per se, but discussing the actual urban/development/population capacity of Canadian regions (e.g., assuming Canada's population grew to somewhere between 50 and 80 million over the course of the 20th century, where would those people live and what areas would be more developed as a result?).
This is pretty niche and I'm not sure I expect a lot of engagement, but typing it all out definitely helped me a clarify a lot in my own head at least and I'd be happy for feedback/criticism, especially from a plausibility lens.
1. Assuming the most of the new population live in existing cities, increasing urban core density somewhat but mainly expanding those contiguous urban areas outwards (rather than spreading out across rural areas and mildly increasing density country-wide), what urban centers have the most potential to take on more population and what small OTL fairly unimportant urban areas have the capacity and potential to grow into cities?
@TheMann wrote a interesting comment on the awesome thread The Greater North - A world where Canada is a superpower by @Yourdamgrandpa:
Although that TL has Canada encompass much of the northern U.S., I think a lot of that could still be applied to a more populous Canada without that territorial expansion.
The Golden Horseshoe
The most obvious place for urbanization is the Southern Ontario Windsor-Toronto corridor. Development tends to go in the path of least resistance, all other things being equal. Southern Ontario has a milder climate than a lot of Canada is is nice flat farmland for the most part -- very easy to develop. OTL Toronto is a metro area of ~6.2 million (2021) and has mainly grown along the shores of Lake Ontario without going very far inland (unlike sprawling Chicago). As TheMann mentioned, the first area to fill-in with a higher population is the undeveloped parts of the Golden Horseshoe along the lakefront -- an unbroken urban area along Lake Ontario from Clarington to St. Catharines (which has itself amalgamated into a contiguous urban area with Niagara Falls and Welland).
That basically doubles the population of Clarington (101,427 in 2021) to 200,000, more than doubles Oshawa (415,311) to ~1 million, triples "Greater Hamilton" (785,184) to ~2 million. St. Catharines-Niagara Falls-Welland (433,604) filling in probably entails them doubling. Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (575,847) area also probably fills in and amalgamates with Guelph (165,588) in this scenario, and Hamilton probably sprawls out to connect with Brantford (144,162). All those places doubling to achieve that gives Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo-Guelph ~1.5 million people and amalgamated Hamilton-Brantford ~150,000 more.
That's all from filling in space between areas rather than increasing population in Toronto proper -- if this also entails a density increase I'd guess conservatively that pushes the total to ~11 million. So almost 3 million more people in the inner "core" Golden Horseshoe and another 750k in nearby Waterloo.
Barrie (212,856), Peterborough (128,624), Belleville (111,184), and Kingston (172,546) are all likely to grow significantly given the much larger metropolis they'll be supporting in this scenario. The "extended" Golden Horseshoe could easily go from ~10 million to ~15 million.
I don't know how plausible it is that Toronto ends up sprawling into what is OTL the southern portions of the Ontario Greenbelt to create a contiguous urban area/amalgamate with Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo-Guelph. If that occurred there looks to at least be enough space for the OTL Toronto Metro population itself to double, creating an urban area equivalent in population to Greater Los Angeles or New York-Newark-Jersey City. That does seem a bit far fetched for Canada.
2. How many people could the Golden Horseshoe realistically support if "fully" developed?
Southern Ontario
What would it take to make Detroit-Windsor a true "twin cities" situation rather than Windsor (422,630) being a glorified suburb? Windsor definitely has the space to be a lot bigger but it would need an economic reason to grow or else people will be drawn to larger centers of gravity/opportunity in mega-Greater Toronto. Maybe an expanded Canadian auto industry?
London-St. Thomas with 543,551 & 42,840 doubling but generally keeping the same density would turn it into a single contiguous urban area of ~1.2 million. There's space for those additional 600,000 and frankly many more than that via both density and outward expansion into surrounding farmland, but again there needs to be an economic impetus for growth there. Sarnia (97,592) and the Chatham-Kent region similarly have space to grow if given a reason.
Northern Ontario
TheMann suggested a line of communities "built around steel mills, smelters, lumber products, minerals and all associated goods" stretching from Sault Ste. Marie to Ottawa (incl. Elliot Lake, Espanola, Sudbury, North Bay, Mattawa, Deep River, and Petawawa-Pembroke) with Sudbury as its anchor, adding "~600,000 to the population of Northern Ontario." This region would also fully exploit its hydropower potential like OTL Quebec, and combined with nuclear plants, create a lot of wealth by selling power to the Golden Horseshoe and Americans further south. That seems pretty reasonable to me.
Ottawa (1,488,307 in 2021) is also definitely bigger in this scenario, with at least 2 million residents. That adds ~1.2 million people in the corridor between Lake Huron and Ottawa. Thunder Bay is also definitely going to be bigger.
That means conservatively Ontario's 2021 population grows from ~14.2 million to 21.5 million.
3. Are there any other regions of Northern Ontario that would be ripe for expansion/development/industrialization if there were more people to go around in 20th century Canada?
Quebec & the Maritimes
I'm sure the communities along the Saint Lawrence have capacity to grow, especially if Montreal, Sorel-Tracy, Trois-Rivieres, Quebec City, Halifax, and Saint John had maintained and expanded their shipbuilding industry and ports. Quebec and the Maritimes seem pretty densely populated and developed as is though, unsure how much more room there is for easy large-scale expansion.
4. Does anyone who knows more about Quebec and the Maritimes want to weigh in?
The Prairies
TheMann has Winnipeg (834,678 in 2021) swelling to ~2.5 million as a major transportation hub and secondary area for the west coast aerospace industry. I'm sure Regina (249,217) and Saskatoon (317,480) could grow some as well, although I'm not sure I see these becoming major cities.
That's ~2.2 million additional people in the Prairies.
Alberta
TheMann suggested turning Alberta into a far more developed and populated region, increasing the size of Calgary (1,481,806) and Edmonton (1,418,118) to 2.5-3 million, Lethbridge (123,847) to 800,000-1 million, and growing the surrounding satellite towns (Red Deer, Medicine Hat, Brooks...etc.) to support the larger urban centers. Oil extracted from a more exploited NW Territories comes south to Albertan refineries and chemical plants. The province is also a hub for the agricultural industry on the eastern edge of the Rockies, manufacturing "the chemicals, machinery, trucks, and equipment" required to sustain the ag sector and hosting the "vast grain elevators, bakeries, breweries, food processing and meat packing plants...etc." needed to create finished products.
That already adds ~4 million people to Alberta's population, bringing it from 4.3 million (2021) to 8.3 million.
British Columbia & Alaska
I think part of this timeline includes Alaska being ceded to Britain as part of the Crimean War settlement in 1856 and joining Canada as a territory upon confederation. Maybe it becomes a province, maybe not, but its population is likely less than its OTL U.S. state counterpart (maybe 400-600,000 people). That said, Canadian Alaska allows Vancouver to benefit from the Klondike goldrush like OTL Seattle and probably makes Canada a bit wealthier and more populous as a whole. Vancouver gets OTL Seattle's goldrush boost and ITTL Vancouver Metro (2.6 million in 2021) has 3.6 million people. Van definitely has space to expand though, so I'd bump that up to ~4.5 million and expand the urban areas stretching to Abbotsford-Mission (195,726) and Chilliwack (113,767), increasing those populations by ~600,000.
Kamloops (114,142), Kelowna (222,162), Prince George (89,490), and Prince Rupert (13,442) all definitely have potential to significantly expand, especially with better infrastructure connecting north and south BC. The former two can double and the latter two can become a proper port and northern capital with the right development -- attracting ~500,000 more residents to northern BC. I don't see Victoria (397,237) growing into a massive metropolis but another 200,000 people doesn't seem implausible.
That's 4.1 million more people in the Pacific region and brings British Columbia's population from 5 million to ~8.6 million.
Overall
Without really touching Quebec or the Maritimes, the above would increase Canada's overall 2021 population by 17.6 million, from 37 million to 54.6 million (Ontario would makeup 40% of that). Honestly that's less than I hoped for as I was aiming for 60 million at least. Are there areas I considered that could be plausibly further expanded, or other areas I didn't cover that have potential to expand?
I'm more curious about the capacity to develop Canada within its existing borders. Not even a specific POD per se, but discussing the actual urban/development/population capacity of Canadian regions (e.g., assuming Canada's population grew to somewhere between 50 and 80 million over the course of the 20th century, where would those people live and what areas would be more developed as a result?).
This is pretty niche and I'm not sure I expect a lot of engagement, but typing it all out definitely helped me a clarify a lot in my own head at least and I'd be happy for feedback/criticism, especially from a plausibility lens.
1. Assuming the most of the new population live in existing cities, increasing urban core density somewhat but mainly expanding those contiguous urban areas outwards (rather than spreading out across rural areas and mildly increasing density country-wide), what urban centers have the most potential to take on more population and what small OTL fairly unimportant urban areas have the capacity and potential to grow into cities?
@TheMann wrote a interesting comment on the awesome thread The Greater North - A world where Canada is a superpower by @Yourdamgrandpa:
Although that TL has Canada encompass much of the northern U.S., I think a lot of that could still be applied to a more populous Canada without that territorial expansion.
The Golden Horseshoe
The most obvious place for urbanization is the Southern Ontario Windsor-Toronto corridor. Development tends to go in the path of least resistance, all other things being equal. Southern Ontario has a milder climate than a lot of Canada is is nice flat farmland for the most part -- very easy to develop. OTL Toronto is a metro area of ~6.2 million (2021) and has mainly grown along the shores of Lake Ontario without going very far inland (unlike sprawling Chicago). As TheMann mentioned, the first area to fill-in with a higher population is the undeveloped parts of the Golden Horseshoe along the lakefront -- an unbroken urban area along Lake Ontario from Clarington to St. Catharines (which has itself amalgamated into a contiguous urban area with Niagara Falls and Welland).
That basically doubles the population of Clarington (101,427 in 2021) to 200,000, more than doubles Oshawa (415,311) to ~1 million, triples "Greater Hamilton" (785,184) to ~2 million. St. Catharines-Niagara Falls-Welland (433,604) filling in probably entails them doubling. Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (575,847) area also probably fills in and amalgamates with Guelph (165,588) in this scenario, and Hamilton probably sprawls out to connect with Brantford (144,162). All those places doubling to achieve that gives Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo-Guelph ~1.5 million people and amalgamated Hamilton-Brantford ~150,000 more.
- || Toronto Metro 6200
- Hamilton 800 + 1200
- St Cat-Niagara 430 + 450
- Oshawa 415 + 600
- Brantford 150 + 150 ||
- Waterloo 575 + 600
- Guelph 165 + 150
That's all from filling in space between areas rather than increasing population in Toronto proper -- if this also entails a density increase I'd guess conservatively that pushes the total to ~11 million. So almost 3 million more people in the inner "core" Golden Horseshoe and another 750k in nearby Waterloo.
Barrie (212,856), Peterborough (128,624), Belleville (111,184), and Kingston (172,546) are all likely to grow significantly given the much larger metropolis they'll be supporting in this scenario. The "extended" Golden Horseshoe could easily go from ~10 million to ~15 million.
I don't know how plausible it is that Toronto ends up sprawling into what is OTL the southern portions of the Ontario Greenbelt to create a contiguous urban area/amalgamate with Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo-Guelph. If that occurred there looks to at least be enough space for the OTL Toronto Metro population itself to double, creating an urban area equivalent in population to Greater Los Angeles or New York-Newark-Jersey City. That does seem a bit far fetched for Canada.
2. How many people could the Golden Horseshoe realistically support if "fully" developed?
Southern Ontario
What would it take to make Detroit-Windsor a true "twin cities" situation rather than Windsor (422,630) being a glorified suburb? Windsor definitely has the space to be a lot bigger but it would need an economic reason to grow or else people will be drawn to larger centers of gravity/opportunity in mega-Greater Toronto. Maybe an expanded Canadian auto industry?
London-St. Thomas with 543,551 & 42,840 doubling but generally keeping the same density would turn it into a single contiguous urban area of ~1.2 million. There's space for those additional 600,000 and frankly many more than that via both density and outward expansion into surrounding farmland, but again there needs to be an economic impetus for growth there. Sarnia (97,592) and the Chatham-Kent region similarly have space to grow if given a reason.
Northern Ontario
TheMann suggested a line of communities "built around steel mills, smelters, lumber products, minerals and all associated goods" stretching from Sault Ste. Marie to Ottawa (incl. Elliot Lake, Espanola, Sudbury, North Bay, Mattawa, Deep River, and Petawawa-Pembroke) with Sudbury as its anchor, adding "~600,000 to the population of Northern Ontario." This region would also fully exploit its hydropower potential like OTL Quebec, and combined with nuclear plants, create a lot of wealth by selling power to the Golden Horseshoe and Americans further south. That seems pretty reasonable to me.
Ottawa (1,488,307 in 2021) is also definitely bigger in this scenario, with at least 2 million residents. That adds ~1.2 million people in the corridor between Lake Huron and Ottawa. Thunder Bay is also definitely going to be bigger.
That means conservatively Ontario's 2021 population grows from ~14.2 million to 21.5 million.
3. Are there any other regions of Northern Ontario that would be ripe for expansion/development/industrialization if there were more people to go around in 20th century Canada?
Quebec & the Maritimes
I'm sure the communities along the Saint Lawrence have capacity to grow, especially if Montreal, Sorel-Tracy, Trois-Rivieres, Quebec City, Halifax, and Saint John had maintained and expanded their shipbuilding industry and ports. Quebec and the Maritimes seem pretty densely populated and developed as is though, unsure how much more room there is for easy large-scale expansion.
4. Does anyone who knows more about Quebec and the Maritimes want to weigh in?
The Prairies
TheMann has Winnipeg (834,678 in 2021) swelling to ~2.5 million as a major transportation hub and secondary area for the west coast aerospace industry. I'm sure Regina (249,217) and Saskatoon (317,480) could grow some as well, although I'm not sure I see these becoming major cities.
That's ~2.2 million additional people in the Prairies.
Alberta
TheMann suggested turning Alberta into a far more developed and populated region, increasing the size of Calgary (1,481,806) and Edmonton (1,418,118) to 2.5-3 million, Lethbridge (123,847) to 800,000-1 million, and growing the surrounding satellite towns (Red Deer, Medicine Hat, Brooks...etc.) to support the larger urban centers. Oil extracted from a more exploited NW Territories comes south to Albertan refineries and chemical plants. The province is also a hub for the agricultural industry on the eastern edge of the Rockies, manufacturing "the chemicals, machinery, trucks, and equipment" required to sustain the ag sector and hosting the "vast grain elevators, bakeries, breweries, food processing and meat packing plants...etc." needed to create finished products.
That already adds ~4 million people to Alberta's population, bringing it from 4.3 million (2021) to 8.3 million.
British Columbia & Alaska
I think part of this timeline includes Alaska being ceded to Britain as part of the Crimean War settlement in 1856 and joining Canada as a territory upon confederation. Maybe it becomes a province, maybe not, but its population is likely less than its OTL U.S. state counterpart (maybe 400-600,000 people). That said, Canadian Alaska allows Vancouver to benefit from the Klondike goldrush like OTL Seattle and probably makes Canada a bit wealthier and more populous as a whole. Vancouver gets OTL Seattle's goldrush boost and ITTL Vancouver Metro (2.6 million in 2021) has 3.6 million people. Van definitely has space to expand though, so I'd bump that up to ~4.5 million and expand the urban areas stretching to Abbotsford-Mission (195,726) and Chilliwack (113,767), increasing those populations by ~600,000.
Kamloops (114,142), Kelowna (222,162), Prince George (89,490), and Prince Rupert (13,442) all definitely have potential to significantly expand, especially with better infrastructure connecting north and south BC. The former two can double and the latter two can become a proper port and northern capital with the right development -- attracting ~500,000 more residents to northern BC. I don't see Victoria (397,237) growing into a massive metropolis but another 200,000 people doesn't seem implausible.
That's 4.1 million more people in the Pacific region and brings British Columbia's population from 5 million to ~8.6 million.
Overall
Without really touching Quebec or the Maritimes, the above would increase Canada's overall 2021 population by 17.6 million, from 37 million to 54.6 million (Ontario would makeup 40% of that). Honestly that's less than I hoped for as I was aiming for 60 million at least. Are there areas I considered that could be plausibly further expanded, or other areas I didn't cover that have potential to expand?
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That was exactly what I was hoping for from this thread, thank you so much for weighing in!! The Georgian Bay Canal seems like it would be a game-changer for Northern Ontario. I'm much less familiar with the far north regions but those proposals all seem plausible to me at face value.