Less Imperialistic Japan (therefore no Pearl Harbor) leading to a way more powerful Nazi Germany

A disclaimer first: what I am about to propose is completely unrealistic, and I am aware of that. So please don't just give me 500 comments saying "this is unrealistic". What I want is for you to give me the reasons why it's unrealistic, so I can make it more realistic. Stuff like numbers of troops, or dates at which tech is introduced, or explanations of the political/economical situations at the time, etc.

The main point of this initial post is to outline roughly where I want this to go, before then diving into it in a lot more depth once the initial premise is proven workable (or redesigning the premise if it is not workable). That's why this initial post is a page long, rather than 50 pages long.

Anyway, here's the TL that I've come up with so far.


——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————


The POD is around 1905. The Japanese navy in OTL was looking for an excuse to expand. The Mahanian doctrine of Satō Tetsutarō argued that to ensure security, Japan should have a navy capable of defeating the power which represented the greatest hypothetical threat. In the 1907 Imperial National Defense Policy, Japan's military focus shifted away from Russia and towards the United States, who now became the primary hypothetical threat to Japan's future security.

In 1907 there was no clash of interests between Japan and the US, nor was there any indication ether government desired confrontation. As such, the Imperial Defense Policy of 1907 promoted Japan's big-navy ideology in complete disregard of the realities of Japanese foreign policy.

ITL, that shift of military focus never happened, and Japan's navy was kept relatively small. Greater involvement in WWI gave them better relations with the Allies, and the shift towards extreme imperialism in the 20s and 30s got butterflied away. Instead of invading Manchuria, Japan sought to get the resources she needed from heightened trade with the US and pursued diplomatic talks with the Chinese to prevent future conflicts.

In Europe, and the rest of the world in general, everything progressed more or less as OTL. There was, however, a notable decrease in racism against the Japanese by the 1920s. In any case, the rise of Nazi Germany progressed, and she invaded Poland along with the Soviet Union in 1939. By 1941, they had captured France and the Battle of Britain ended in Germany's favor. Halifax became prime minister in 1940, and in late-1941 pursued a peace deal with Germany that effectively removed Britain from the war.

With Britain out of the picture, Germany turned her attention east. Operation Barbarossa was launched in early-1941, by the start of 1942 the Germans had advanced beyond Moscow, and they had pushed the Soviets back to the Ural Mountains by the end of 1942. Despite this success, the operation was in total a net loss for Germany, as the amount of resources and manpower needed to hold the territory she gained in Russia was considerably higher than expected. The rest of the Soviet Union, all the way to the Far East, would not be captured until mid-1944.

Meanwhile, the US had been gearing up for war. Although ITL Pearl Harbor never happened, thanks to much better US-Japan relations, the US was still considering entering the war and built up her forces as a result, although not at the same rate as OTL. At the same time, Britain had also been expanding her military forces, and in mid-1944 these were put to the test when the Germans launched operation Sealion.

The Germans launched the operation for a number of reasons. The main one, however, was to remove Britain as a starting point for a possible Allied invasion of Germany. To facilitate the operation Germany had been working on a number of so-called Wunderwaffe. The most important of these were jet-powered aircraft, like the Go 229 or Me 262 (which had just replaced the He 280 in service), and radio-controlled glide bombs and rockets, which allowed the Luftwaffe to destroy the RAF and sink the majority of the Royal Navy before the invasion started. Even before the first troops landed, the Luftwaffe was attacking British defensive positions and limiting their ability to counterattack.

In the end, a combination of Germany's technological advantage and a large number of Nazi supporters in Britain hampering any efforts to launch counterattacks lead to the invasion being a success. Britain officially surrendered in late 1944, and the remainder of their navy fled to the US or Canada (including the battlecruiser Hood).

The next phase of the war would be influenced by what could be the most important piece of espionage work in history. In late 1943 German spies in America unveiled a secret program the US was working on, Project Manhattan. The German's war plans were changed by this in many ways. While the US was currently neutral, there was no guarantee that they would stay that way forever. At first, they were not worried too much, believing that an American bomber could not penetrate their air defenses to deliver such a weapon. However, research being done by Von Braun quickly made them realize that may not always be the case. At this point, Germany had two options;

They could start their own project (which they were going to do regardless) and hope that they developed a viable delivery system for it first, allowing them to launch a nuclear attack against America without being retaliated against. However, while their spies had been able to penetrate the security around the Manhattan Project, they had not been able to do so for the US's rocketry program. As such, this option was seen as a 50/50 shot at best.

The second option was to try and delay the US's nuclear program. Initial attempts to do this via espionage failed spectacularly, with almost their entire US spy network being dismantled. This lead Germany to conclude that the only way to proceed was to try and destroy the US's nuclear program by force, and start a conventional war with the US in the process.

At first, the war plan to achieve this focused on using their better technology to achieve air superiority over the US and then launch long-range bombing strikes on Manhattan Project facilities while destroying their navy at sea and preventing the US from tying to launch an invasion through Alaska long enough to develop their own nuclear weapons. However, by early 1944 Adolf Hitler's mental situation was starting to decline, and he instead pushed for a full-scale invasion of the United States, citing the fact that strategic bombing might not succeed if the US moved her efforts underground, and that for this operation they needed a guarantee of success.

As a result, in early-1944 Germany started gearing up for war, not only with Britain but with the US as well. By late 1944 conscription levels had reached 75% of the male population and were still increasing, and at the start of the invasion of the US, Germany had an estimated 40 million men in her armed forces, of which around 25 million actively took part in the invasion, while the rest were placed around Germany's occupied territories to prevent a revolt.

The German invasion of America was given the codename Operation Oberherr in mid-1944 and was based on a series of sub-operations that would be carried out beforehand. The first of these consisted of securing Russian Far East to the point that an invasion could be carried out through Alaska without Soviet Resistance threatening it. The second was building a rail system that allowed the invasion forces and materials to cross Russia quickly. The third was the construction of a series of airbases, also in the Far East, to allow the Luftwaffe to sink any US ships that threatened the invading forces as they crossed the Bering Strait, and the fourth was to build up a very large number of troops in the Far East, ready to launch the invasion when the time comes.

The first of these operations would not be fully completed until just a few months before the invasion started, but the rest of them proceeded smoothly and the preparations were complete by November. The US had no way of performing reconnaissance over Siberia, and with their spy networks in Germany compromised they didn't realize the invasion was being prepared for until it actually started.

On December 7th, 1944, Operation Oberherr was launched. The Luftwaffe operating out of the Russian Far East wrecked US installations in Alaska, and 24 million German troops started being ferried across the Bering Strait. By January 1st, 1945, Alaska had fallen and the Germans had pushed 600 kilometers into Canada, and by the end of January, they had reached the US border.

However, Operation Oberherr did not just consist of a series of invasions staged through Alaska. In addition to those, it also consisted of amphibious landings in New York and Delaware, launched from Nazi-occupied Greenland with the goal of capturing Washington DC. In order to facilitate this the Kriegsmarine was expanded greatly, and by the start of the operation, they had 8 Graf Zeppelin-Class aircraft carriers (not the same ones as OTL, but ones that were actually good), as well as a very large supporting fleet of destroyers.

This fleet is generally considered to be the first truly modern fleet in history, relying mainly on aircraft carriers for its striking power and destroyers to protect from submarines, although it should be noted that the fleet also had amongst its ranks 2 Bismarck-class battleships, albeit refitted with a substantial number of primitive but still deadly radar-guided rocket missiles. The aircraft carried by the carriers were jet-powered Me 262, and they were outfitted with radio-controlled glide bombs for anti-ship work and a combination of dumb-fire rockets and bombs for anti-ground and close air support work.

The fleet, including both the strike force of carriers, battleships, and destroyers and the invasion fleet of amphibious assault ships, set out from Greenland towards the US east coast on December 7th along with the rest of Operation Oberherr. This was noted right away by US Naval Command, and the entire US ATLFLT and the remnants of the RN in Canada were immediately mobilized to intercept it. ITL without the pacific war the Atlantic fleet was the US's primary naval force, with 8 aircraft carriers, 12 battleships, and a huge supporting force of cruisers and destroyers. The RN added 2 aircraft carriers, 2 battleships, and a battlecruiser to that.

Meanwhile, US PACFLT and the Imperial Japanese Navy were notified of the invasion force crossing the Bering Strait, and they also mobilized to intercept them. The ensuing naval battles are generally considered to be the greatest in history.

The US ATLFLT and RN reached their targets first. On December 8, after steaming at war emergency power for almost an entire day, the American and British ships met their German counterparts. The initial attacks occurred in the air, with the superior German planes causing remarkably disproportionate casualties amongst the Allies. 7 Allied aircraft carriers and 10 battleships were lost to German air attacks before the Allied forces managed to get into gun range of the enemy ships.

However, once that point was reached the advantage firmly turned towards the Allies. The US still had 3 battleships left, and the RN had 1 battleship and a battlecruiser. The 2 German battleships put up an admirable fight but ultimately were defeated. However, the German battleships did succeed in drawing the Allied forces away from the amphibious assault fleet, and around half of the invasion, forces were able to reach the US east coast intact, although they were forced to divert to New Jersey.

On the other side of the Americas, the US PACFLT and the IJN intercepted the German invasion convoys at the Bering Strait on December 12th. The total number of ships was; 8 US battleships, 4 IJN battleships, 6 US carriers, 4 IJN carriers, and around 100 smaller vessels. Thanks to airbases in the Far East, however, the Germans were able to launch ground-based jet aircraft against the Allied ships. 7 battleships and 8 carriers were sunk before reaching the convoys, and the remaining ships were sunk or driven off before they could sink more than around 200 troopships. Nevertheless, this significantly damaged the German invasion plans and increased the amount of time it took for them to regroup in Alaska.

Upon landing in New Jersey, the quarter-million German troops were able to march inland and start securing positions. A significant amount of the US Army was diverted to New Jersey to stop the German forces from reaching Washington DC, and although they were eventually successful, it cost around a million Allied casualties thanks mainly to the effectiveness of German close air support.

The German invasion forces breaking through from Canada fared better. They prioritized taking the west coast, and by the end of April, they had advanced into California. By this point, the Germans had lost around 5 million troops, and the Americans had lost 7 million. On May 9th the German forces made a final advance towards San Fransisco and captured the city on May 25th. At this point they stopped advancing south and started moving east, capturing Las Vegas in June and pushing into Wyoming and Colorado by the end of July. By now the German troops numbered around 12 million, and more than 8 million of them were occupied trying to suppress resistance fighters in occupied territory.

On August 4th German forces started advancing on Denver, before suddenly being stopped in their tracks by the first nuclear detonation in history. Despite the German's best efforts at bombing its facilities, the Manhattan Project had progressed and on August 2nd a nuclear mine was placed 20 kilometers west of Denver and detonated 2 days later. The failed attack on Denver would prove to be the furthest the German forces would advance during WWII, and following that they started being pushed back on all fronts.

By September massive Allied counterattacks had forced the Germans back to the west coast, and in late October San Fransisco was liberated. The Germans were completely repelled from North America by January of 1946, almost exactly 1 year after Operation Oberherr was launched, thanks in no small part to freedom fighting movements in occupied territory that the Germans, now lacking manpower, were unable to suppress.

On the 21st of January, 1946, the Allies crossed the Bearing Strait and landed troops in the Russian Far East. Over the next 9 months, they would proceed to push the Germans back beyond the borders of pre-war Russia. However, thanks to the superior speed and armament of the aircraft used by the Luftwaffe, the use of nuclear weapons deployed by strategic bombers could never be realized. Instead, the Allies started developing long-range rockets based on mobile IRBM launchers they had found while liberating the US and Russia. By November 1946 the first prototypes were ready, and they were deployed to the frontlines in Russia. Over the course of November and December, 17 nuclear weapons were used, mainly against German troop concentrations, and on the 15th of December, a final nuclear weapon mounted atop an IRBM and fired at Berlin. Adolf Hitler was killed in the detonation, and the German Reich officially surrendered to the Allies on December 25th, 10 days later.

In the aftermath of the war, the United States occupied Russia and Europe, helping rebuild the pre-war nations there. The United States of Russia was created, and the original government was restored in Britain. Japan, who had assisted with the invasion of Nazi-occupied Russia, was allowed to keep a significant portion of the territories there. In China, the Republic won out, with the Communist government being exiled to Taiwan. By the 1950s, all of the major nations in the world were either a democracy or a constitutional monarchy, with no major authoritarian nations (like the OTL USSR or CCP) surviving.


——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————


So to sum it up, Japan never gets ultra-crazy and joins the Allies, Britain gets Halifax instead of Churchill and signs a peace deal in 1941, the US stays neutral (but still does lend-lease) and the Germans defeat the USSR. Then they turn back to the UK, and with a combination of having the Luftwaffe sink the RN and a crap-ton of nazi sympathizers all over the place in Britain they pull off a successful Sealion (that's the second most unrealistic thing here, btw).

Then they find out about the Manhattan project and conclude the best way to stop it in time is to invade the US through Alaska. They manage to make it to San Fransisco and Denver before the US gets itself together and repels them, pushing them back through Russia and eventually nuking Berlin.

That's the basic premise. I am well aware that it's probably not possible, but unfortunately, I lack the knowledge needed to figure out exactly what to change to make it more realistic. So, I'm hoping you guys can help with that. Any thoughts?
 
Last edited:
A disclaimer first: what I am about to propose is completely unrealistic, and I am aware of that. So please don't just give me 500 comments saying "this is unrealistic". What I want is for you to give me the reasons why it's unrealistic, so I can make it more realistic. Stuff like numbers of troops, or dates at which tech is introduced, or explanations of the political/economical situations at the time, etc.
Ok, there's a LOT of problems with this one, the first one being that a German invasion of America is just straight up impossible. No ifs, no buts, no nothings. It's not going to happen (when was the last time a successful trans-continental invasion was launched with no friendly bases nearby whatsoever? 1521 maybe? The art of war had changed a lot since then...).
Why? Logistics. I'm not sure how long you've been on the forum, but you'll come to hate the word before too long if you're new (and should already hate it if you've been here a while :) ). Seeing as you mentioned Barbarossa, I'm going to recommend the book Operation Barbarossa and Germany's Defeat in the East by David Stahel - it goes through the first couple of months of the war in the East, detailing just about every problem the German High Command faced, and in short why they were lucky to get as far as they did. (also Strange Victory by Ernest R May if you're interested in something similar about the 1938-40 period).

That said, your scenario...
First, Japan can become a peaceful nation with a POD in 1905 easily enough (just don't get the hawks into government), although I suspect the best time to do this is 1919 - if the Great Powers respect the Japanese delegation at Versailles, the Japanese will be satisfied with the outcome of WWI and will still be willing to work with the international community. If we combine this with some change in China that averts Warlordism (say the republican government of the period manages to hold together in some form), so that China isn't such an inviting target, then yeah Japan can remain peaceful (nations prefer not to go into wars unless there are madmen or 'good' reasons involved - fighting hurts them too!). No issues there.

Next, America remains isolationist in some form. Ok, they come back from WWI (you're not getting Hitler into power with a pre-1918 POD) and decide "hey that actually wasn't such a great idea, lots of people died sad face", and isolationism becomes stronger. How? Doesn't matter too much, so I'll ignore it. During the 1936 election, someone who opposes war ends up on the ticket of either the Republican or Democratic party and gets elected President. There's been 20 years since the POD, and enough people of that brand existed, so sure, it can work. He's popular, so he wins a second term in 1940, and a similar candidate (maybe his VP?) wins in 1944. Ok, I'll come back to this.

Next, Barbarossa. There's not going to be an "early 1941" invasion. Weather conditions don't allow it. At best, you can push the invasion back about two weeks. June 10 or so. Any earlier and the roads are mud, troops aren't fully in position (invading Greece had basically no impact on this BTW) &c &c. Then, could Leningrad be taken in 1941? Probably (there's a bunch of threads on the forum about this). Could Moscow be taken? Less likely, but within the realm of possibility - although it won't be any earlier than late October or more likely November. Everyone mentions at this point that there would be a huge Soviet counterattack, and there probably would be, but remember that the Red Army of 1941 is far less experienced, especially the officers, and Stalin is still being silly about the politics. Moscow might become a huge urban battlefield like Stalingrad, but this could just as easily chew up huge numbers of Red Army troops as it might the Wehrmacht. OTL Rzhev was a fiasco for the Red Army. Moscow can fall eventually.
To defeat the USSR, all Germany really needs to do at this point is "not lose". With Leningrad and Moscow in their hands, they control most of the Russian population. They hold the Ukraine too, so most of Russia's food production is gone. A Case Blue-type offensive aimed at controlling the Kuban and establishing a line on the Volga is probably still the plan for 1942. The Soviets won't be as likely caught off guard (unless they're still throwing men at Moscow), but for the sake of the scenario it is possible enough that this offensive succeeds to some degree (forget about Grozny or Baku - they're too far away). If they can hold a Leningrad-Moscow-Stalingrad line for the next year and a half, the USSR will fall into a famine (OTL they relied on capturing the Ukraine's grain crop in late 1943 in order to avoid this). Lend-lease likely doesn't exist, and even if it did it probably can't supply enough food to feed most of the remaining Soviet population (there's only so many rail lines and ports, and those are being used for everything they were IOTL and then some: most rail lines run through Moscow, and that has been captured!). Stalin has probably been toppled at this point, and someone among the Communist Party's top ranks might decide they'd rather just accept the defeat so they can focus on holding onto power in the rump state that is left. Something of a peace treaty is signed, all good for the Germans (and terrible for everyone else!).
Unfortunately, that was the easy part (and again, Stahel's book makes clear this was quite the struggle!).

Invading Britain... in 1940 it is impossible. In 1944, it is impossible. If the war goes on long enough, and the enlarged Germany has enough time to build ships in those yards it captured in the Baltic (Leningrad is so far out of range of British bombers that it is completely untouchable), then it might be able to cobble together something of a decent navy. Never a good one, but maybe a decent one. It is hard to say which economy would give out first - the British (without American help) or the German, but if the Germans have everything west of the Volga (Baku has been bombed by the RAF so frequently as to be useless, but by 1944 the Germans might be getting something out of Maikop, and are presumably using less oil than OTL seeing as the war in the east is purely an affair of killing partisans), they have enough of a chance to say "yeah, they could win". However at this point, if Britain is collapsing due to crippling war debt, it is more likely to sue for a peace that secures its independence and recognises the German gains thus far, than it is to wait for an invasion (remember, Hitler wanted peace with the British, he was much less interested in invading them!). If Sealion goes ahead in 1950 or something, after the RAF has been worn down due to a LONG battle of attrition against an empire spanning a continent, it probably still goes badly. You can bet the British are going to be prepared for anything at this point. The Kriegsmarine might be big (they've had God knows how much steel poured in to them the last few years), and the Channel unsafe for British ships, but invading an island is HARD. Look up D-Day. Look up any invasion of a Pacific island starting with Tarawa. Look up the plans for Operation Downfall (and that was going to be against an enemy that quite simply had no arms industry left). Possible? Maybe, depends how much good luck the Germans are allowed, because we're talking a "one in a billion billion" scenario by this point.

Everything I just said about how hard it is to invade Britain. Multiply that by 100. The channel is a barrier that has to be crossed, yes, but it is quite a small one. 40 kilometres or something. The Atlantic is several thousand. Unlike the Channel, it is impossible for the Luftwaffe to "control the skies" anywhere near the east coast (as for Alaska, Germany simply does not have the capability to cross the Ural mountains and press on to Vladivostok. I'm not sure they could get to the Urals even in a best-case scenario). None of the planes Germany built, planned to build, or could have built with the technology of the 1940s or 50s, could have crossed the Atlantic, maintained any sort of presence over New York or Boston (the closest locations to Europe in the USA IIRC), and flown back. If you say "Amerika Bomber", I remind you that you need fighters to escort them. There's no fighter capable of 10000 km range. I don't think any even exist in 2020. You're not getting them in 1955.
America... no matter who becomes President, because we're in post-1900 we have to assume that the US Government isn't just trying to self-sabotage. They're going to defend themselves. The most dovish president in the world would agree with that, or they would be impeached in record time. Isolation meant "America First" (or in this scenario, America Only?). It did not mean "gulp down multi-ton barrels of lead paint every day while pretending the rest of the world doesn't exist". President Dove will still build a navy to defend the Western Hemisphere, even if he is 100% unwilling to ever do anything aggressive towards Germany and thinks Britain ought to be left out to dry. Once the USSR falls, and Germany starts building a proper navy, the US shipyards will enter an arms race, and that is one that they will definitely win (they outbuilt the IJN by an absolutely stupid amount IOTL. Germany's starting from a position even worse than Japan, with next to no naval tradition, and no ships). The RN was only beaten because the Luftwaffe had a continent worth of industry supplying it. That doesn't work against the USN.
And even if you did avoid the USN somehow, and the Kriegsmarine finds some way to get troops ashore in New York, then guess what? America has a similar population to the USSR, is almost as large as the USSR (and unlike the USSR, all that land would actually have to be taken), and has almost as many guns as there are people. It would be an invasion at least as hard as Barbarossa was if the two countries shared a land border (and Barbarossa was a struggle). The Atlantic Ocean makes things a hundred times worse.
Finally, if you say the Germans conquer Greenland or something like you would in Hearts of Iron, well the US leadership is going to see that, and realise there's only one reason they would do that. If they think they're going to be invaded, rearmament is only going to accelerate!

The most generous scenario possible (and trust me, I am being extremely generous with all this) doesn't come close to what you seek.

- BNC
 
Ok, there's a LOT of problems with this one, the first one being that a German invasion of America is just straight up impossible. No ifs, no buts, no nothings. It's not going to happen (when was the last time a successful trans-continental invasion was launched with no friendly bases nearby whatsoever? 1521 maybe? The art of war had changed a lot since then...).

-SNIP-

The most generous scenario possible (and trust me, I am being extremely generous with all this) doesn't come close to what you seek.

- BNC

Thanks for the input! I really appreciate it, and I'll check out those books you mentioned.

Anyway, first things first, I just want to say that, right now at least, two of the things I'm least knowledgable about for this is what was going on over at the eastern front during Barborrosa (beyond what it says on Wikipedia), and Japans internal politics pre-1940. Hence why I was rather vague about that. I think the suggestion of moving the POD to 1919 is a good one, I'll do that.

Anyway, here's the deal: I want this TL to feature the US, Japan (and maybe china, British holdouts, etc) fighting as the 'last bastion of freedom' against a massively overpowered Nazi Germany, and for that to work, Nazi Germany has to A - be very strong, and B - provoke a war with the US / Japan / other Allies somehow. This presents a problem - the only way for Germany to get strong is for the US to be isolationist, but then if that's the case we just get Cold War when both sides get nukes. The only way an isolationist USA is going to go to war is if A - a new president gets elected and somehow turns public opinion round on a dime, or B - they get attacked directly.

I did consider getting around this by not having Nazi Germany get super strong, and have it be more like OTL WWII but with an allied Japan, but without Pearl Harbor that's probably not going to happen. So, I have concluded that the only way for this to work is to have Germany get to the point where it can, and does, threaten both the US and Japan (and probably the rest of Asia too). Plus, I also want big naval battles, which with the previous needs, naturally leads to a conclusion: Germany needs to declare war with the US.

This is a problem.

Germany OTL obviously cannot take over the entire US, even if they did somehow launch a successful invasion, they simply don't have enough soldiers to guard the US and prevent resistance movements from forming. And they would probably know that. That's why I picked a different reason to invade than conquest - In this case, they found out about Manhattan, looked at their V2s and put 2 and 2 together, realized that at some point MAD was going to cause their ability to expand to stagnate, and decided that preventing it at all costs was worth the risk of an invasion.

At the end of the day, the point is this: I want Japan and the US (and a few others, notably the remanents of the RN) to fight a large-scale war with Nazi Germany. The only way to do that is to have Germany herself declare war on the US/allies, and the only way they will do that is if they think they have a decent chance of winning. Hence why I concluded that the best way to do this was a German invasion of America.

Now that I'm looking at this again, though, I think I can see another way. What if, around 1944, the US gets a massive shift away from isolationism? Maybe word about the holocaust gets out, and the US population feels that abandoning Europe to die wasn't the best idea. The new president is very non-isolationist, and then around early-1944, Germany starts invading Japan / China. How they do that, exactly, could be a problem. Unless they want to push in through Africa, they need to conquer the entire Soviet Union, somehow, but we'll discuss that later. Point is, the Germans invade China and start setting up for an invasion of Japan, and the US who now feels that they should do something to oppose Germany decides to declare war.

The question, then, is how do we make that sort of thing work? Here's what, from what I can tell, needs to happen:

- Germany invades the Soviet Union, pushes them back to the Urals, and somehow keeps going, pushing them back to the Far East
- For that to happen, Germany needs a huge number of troops (20+ million, probably) and a massive technical advantage (He 280s by 1942 maybe?)
- Now controlling all of Europe and Russia, Germany decided they haven't yet finished lebensraum and wants to conquer Asia.
- The US around 1943-44 has a massive shift away from isolationism (I have no real idea how to make that happen, suggestions would be appreciated)
- The US declares war on Germany (Britan is probably still neutral, although I wouldn't be surprised if a significant portion of the RN decides to 'defect' to the US)
- Perhaps the US declares war after Germany has already gotten through China, maybe spurred on by the horrific accounts of what the Germans are doing there.
- Now Germany is building up the Kriegsmarine and Luftwaffe to invade Japan, for some reasion. Maybe Japan declared war on Germany?
- The US declares war on Germany just as the Germans try to invade Japan
- Awesome battles between Iowas + Yamatos vs H-44s
- Germany gets its ass kicked
- Profit???

That's just one option. There could be more ways to get what I want, but for now, I'll assume that that's what we're going with. Now the question is, what does Germany have to do to invade Russia, invade China, and have a decent chance of invading Japan before the US shows up to ruin the party?

Firstly, troop numbers. Germany has 80 million people, France has 40 million, and Russia has 170 million. Let's say 25% of the French and 5% of the Russians can be persuaded to fight for Germany. Cut that in half to subtract the women (I suspect that female soldiers aren't happening anytime soon), and we get 49.25 million. Mobilizing 60% of them gets us a figure of 29.55 million troops, of which around half would be used in the invasion. (Just to be clear, I'm pulling these figures from pretty much nowhere, I don't know what actual conscription rates were or if they used French soldiers, etc)

So, Germany probably has around 15 million troops to invade Asia with. What about technology levels?

The first jet-powered fighter, the He-280 flew in March of 1941. In OTL Hitler decided to pursue Messhersmitt instead, but ITL if he chooses Heinkel they could get an operational jet aircraft by mid-1942. Or, they could continue with the Me-262 and have the engine development program not be cut back by Goring, maybe leading to a working fighter by the end of 1942 to mid-1943. Also, the Ho-229 first flew in 1943, so with better funding maybe an introduction in mid to late-1944 is possible.

There are other things too. Radio-controlled bombs like the Fritz-X and Hs-293 started being used in 1943, and there were plans for TV-guided versions that never got put in place. It's possible that with more funding those could be used quite effectively by the Luftwaffe, maybe launched from jet-powered bombers, against the British / Japanese / US navies.

As for the Kriegsmarine, well it's possible that by 1944 that ship-launched guided rockets could be around. Primitive radar systems could probably be fitted into a V2-style missile, launched vertically from something akin to a VLS cell, guided in a certain direction by a gyroscope before switching to terminal radar guidance. With a flatter trajectory, say a max altitude of 20 km and a range of 150 km, then it might work. Or perhaps something like the V1 would work better.

Acoustic homing torpedos were a thing by the end of the war. So were submarines with snorkels and high speeds and such. So it's possible that submarines could be used effectively in an anti-warship role. And there were even plans to put a V2 missile in a giant submersible tube, towed behind a submarine. With these sorts of technological advantages, I could see the Germans taking Asia. The Chinese have, at most, 10 million troops by now, and they probably aren't that well equipped, so with 15 million troops and a massive technical advantage Germany could probably take and hold China.

Of course, to get my awesome battles between Yamato + Iowa vs H-44 I need Germany to declare war on Japan for some reason. Or perhaps Japan declared war on Germany? I need advice on how to proceed from here, or if any of this is even the right way to go, or even possible at all. Maybe my original idea was better? Or perhaps none of this is feasible and I need to start from scratch? I just don't know. Thoughts?

Oh, and also, this plan requires them to get all of Russia. After what you said, I'm not sure if that's even possible with the OTL Soviet Union, so perhaps ITL the USSR was undergoing way more problems, or outright collapsed at some point? Maybe the revolution wasn't successful, and it stayed Tsarist? I need advice on that as well.
 

Viola

Banned
Some pointers:

1 - I don't think that less Japanese aggression in the '20s would have resulted in less racism because in the '20s the Japanese were relatively chill OTL, they started their descent into imperialism and being an international pariah only from 1931 and their invasion of Manchuria onward.

2 - The Nazis had no interest in the lands beyond the Urals, their plan was Generalplan Ost and they didn't intend to settle Siberia. At most they would have ensured that no stable government may survive in what was left of the former USSR, but even that might have stretched their logistics too far (lots of extemely stretched logistics in this anyway).

3 - Operation Sealion is a meme on the forums because it's a popular trope in alternate history but to pull it off successfully the Germans should have a bunch of things on their side that they never had, including: sufficient boats to transport the troops and capable of resisting the tides, aerial superiority over the British Isles with the implicit destruction of the RAF, being able to stop the Royal Navy from interfering at all on pain of having a lot of your troops drown (even with aerial superiority that might be complicated to achieve), some kind of naval defense force to protect the transport ships that the Germans should build by sacrificing resources needed elsewhere.
Even in 1944 with all of Europe under Nazi control a successful invasion of England would have been a huge struggle, the Germans would have better luck here trying to bring the British on their side diplomatically (and that would be difficult in its own right, but at least it'd be humanly feasible).

4 - Luftwaffe's wunderwaffes are still just planes. They can't single-handedly deny the existence of both the navy and air force of the Allies.

5 - Historically German espionage in the United States resulted in huge failures, but I guess one can imagine a situation where the Germans have more luck.

6 - An amphibious invasion of North America is never going to happen. The Germans would have better luck trying to invade the Moon.

7 - An amphibious invasion of North America starting in Eastern Siberia, an occupied region immensely far away from the German heartland that seemingly had to be conquered to force, directed to Alaska, a region that combines the extreme temperatures of Siberia with very mountainous terrain and doesn't constitute a vital part of the United States at all exactly for that reason, all seemingly organized within 1944, staged entirely in Winter, is never, ever going to happen or end well.

8 - An amphibious invasion of North America starting in Eastern Siberia, directed at Alaska, all seemingly organized in 1944, staged entirely in Winter, by using a whooping 25 million men, fed by logistics that have to go through the entirety of Siberia, sent on ships that I hope to God aren't Rhine river boats, in a region extremely close to US naval bases and air power, while Germany is simultaneously trying to hold on extremely overstretched gains in Europe and is also knee deep in exterminating half of its population, is never, ever, ever going to end well and is insane enough that it might actually be something that could have been planned by nazis.

9 - Sending 25 million men across the Bering Straits in Winter in the hope that Goring's Luftwaffe and its mighty jet engines will be able to simultaneously fend off the combined aeronaval assault that the Americans will be able to unleash on the invading force at any moment and then also defend the stream of supplies having to go from Berlin to Vladivostok and then Anchorage does not describe a military operation, it describes an incoming massive humanitarian disaster.

10 - The poor bastards trying to land on the Eastern Coast are never getting there alive either, what kind of fleet can the Germans ensemble in so few years to challenge the US navy in the Atlantic to the point they feel like they can stage a trans-Atlantic invasion force?

If I were the Americans I'd just let the poor bastards land in Alaska, cut their insanely overstretched and vulnerable supply line, and then start investing in humanitarian aids for the 25 million people that will need food and blankets to resist the harsh winter.
 
Just to pick a few ... uh, interesting points:

The next phase of the war would be influenced by what could be the most important piece of espionage work in history. In late 1943 German spies in America unveiled a secret program the US was working on,

German spies in America couldn't find out what the President had for dinner, if you gave them a month and it was published in the NYT.

As a result, in early-1944 Germany started gearing up for war, not only with Britain but with the US as well. By late 1944 conscription levels had reached 75% of the male population

Aaaaand then the German economy collapsed into fiery ruin, and everyone starved.

On December 7th, 1944, Operation Oberherr was launched. The Luftwaffe operating out of the Russian Far East wrecked US installations in Alaska, and 24 million German troops started being ferried across the Bering Strait.

No ... just ... no. All of the no possible. I mean, if you want 24 million already hungry and cold German troops (since their economy just collapsed, after all) to starve and freeze to death, that's a great way to do it. First you just need the shipping. Of course, there wasn't enough in the world to transport 24 million troops, but hey, that's not exactly the least realistic part of this scenario.
 
Nazi Germany,
I'll start with this. The Nazis required a rather specific chain of events to get into power in the first place, another very specific chain of events to get them in a position where they can actually fight a war beginning in 1938 or 39, another very specific chain to get their OTL gains, and then an even more specific chain to get them to actually win the war. If you were to "reroll" the world a thousand times starting on November 11, 1918, you possibly get 50 occurrences of anything resembling the Nazis, and less than 10 where they start a world war and even fewer where they have any shot at winning at all. Hitler and his lot got very, very lucky on several occasions.

The problem is, the further back you place your POD, the more likely it becomes that one of these crucial events gets butterflied away. Change anything before 1915, it would be just about impossible, short of divine intervention, to get Hitler into power on January 30, 1933.
The other problem is, to set the world on a course of events anything like what you have described, you need to go back more than ten or twenty years before 1939. America overtook Germany in industrial ability by 1900 IIRC, and it could have been decades before that - if you want the two to be peer opponents, you have to pick a POD early enough to reasonably allow for this. Unfortunately for your scenario, that will make Nazism implausible, so we're stuck in a bit of a self-defeating loop.

Because of that, I'm not going to explore the finer details of your scenario - they really don't matter too much. Whether or not alt-Germany gets a V2 a year early doesn't matter when alt-Germany can't exist in the first place. Instead, let's explore what else you said :)

Firstly, troop numbers. Germany has 80 million people, France has 40 million, and Russia has 170 million. Let's say 25% of the French and 5% of the Russians can be persuaded to fight for Germany. Cut that in half to subtract the women (I suspect that female soldiers aren't happening anytime soon), and we get 49.25 million. Mobilizing 60% of them gets us a figure of 29.55 million troops, of which around half would be used in the invasion. (Just to be clear, I'm pulling these figures from pretty much nowhere, I don't know what actual conscription rates were or if they used French soldiers, etc)
80 million for Germany. Let's break that down a bit:
1/2 are women.
1/3 are kids or elderly people.
That leaves us with 1/3 of 80 million, or 26mn.
However, those 26mn are needed, in addition to being soldiers, to be able to grow food, run railroads, manage hospitals, electrical power, build stuff in factories (some of which are weapons of some form, some of which are not) &c &c.
You're not going to get 33% of the population actively fighting. A more appropriate number is about 5-7% as a soft maximum, and 10-12% if you are really desperate (and after doing this, the economy is going to suck for a long time). I don't have the exact figures on me, but I think 10% is roughly what the USSR managed IOTL. You're not getting much more than that.

The first jet-powered fighter, the He-280 flew in March of 1941. In OTL Hitler decided to pursue Messhersmitt instead, but ITL if he chooses Heinkel they could get an operational jet aircraft by mid-1942. Or, they could continue with the Me-262 and have the engine development program not be cut back by Goring, maybe leading to a working fighter by the end of 1942 to mid-1943. Also, the Ho-229 first flew in 1943, so with better funding maybe an introduction in mid to late-1944 is possible.

There are other things too. Radio-controlled bombs like the Fritz-X and Hs-293 started being used in 1943, and there were plans for TV-guided versions that never got put in place. It's possible that with more funding those could be used quite effectively by the Luftwaffe, maybe launched from jet-powered bombers, against the British / Japanese / US navies.

As for the Kriegsmarine, well it's possible that by 1944 that ship-launched guided rockets could be around. Primitive radar systems could probably be fitted into a V2-style missile, launched vertically from something akin to a VLS cell, guided in a certain direction by a gyroscope before switching to terminal radar guidance. With a flatter trajectory, say a max altitude of 20 km and a range of 150 km, then it might work. Or perhaps something like the V1 would work better.
EQUIPMENT DOES NOT MATTER. Or as General Patton put it, "Wars may be fought with weapons, but they are won by men".

I'm exaggerating a little bit here, but not much. Think about all the "wonder weapons" from IOTL. The Tiger tank... didn't work half the time and when it did, well Germany was still losing. Same goes for the T-34, the Red Army still got badly bloodied in 1941/2. Poison gas in WWI... a couple of quick breakthroughs on the early uses, and then not much. The atomic bomb... did less damage than a reasonably large firebombing raid. The sort of technological gap that is possible within a ten or twenty year timeframe isn't going to change anything much. One, because enemy spies will find out about it, so you can't get too far ahead (not to mention, Nazi spies were terrible). Two, the other side will adapt quite quickly. It will give a local advantage for a little while, but that's not going to be enough to take over a continent. A few counties maybe, no more (and no, not countries)
I can only think of a few instances where technological change had a real impact on helping one side win over the other:
- the Spanish conquest of the Americas, and even then, the Spanish used native recruits far more than anything their cannons and horses did.
- the Scramble for Africa/Italy v Ethiopia. And despite the British using machine guns on the Zulus, they still got beaten rather embarrassingly at least once.
- Opium Wars. A situation that only really occurred because the Qing court was obsessed with not modernising, and the British didn't really push inland.
In all those cases, the technological gap was a matter of centuries (millennia even?) between the two powers, and was basically the result of next to no contact between the two cultures beforehand (which isn't going to happen in the 20th century).

As an aside (and I know I said I wouldn't go into scenario specifics), you mention that Russia is completely overrun. IOTL it took the Mongols about 15 years to take over a comparable area. Even with combustion engines and aircraft, this won't be a quick campaign (as your tanks, trucks, &c can't effectively operate more than ~500km from their railheads). Setting up an occupation for a literal sixth of the planet's surface area will require years. Possibly one if there's no resistance. More likely two or three.

Of course, to get my awesome battles between Yamato + Iowa vs H-44 I need Germany to declare war on Japan for some reason. Or perhaps Japan declared war on Germany?
If all you want is a battleship fight, read my TL The Twin Vipers. Yamato and South Dakota go up against a few H-39s in it :) Not quite Iowas, but close enough.

I need advice on how to proceed from here, or if any of this is even the right way to go, or even possible at all. Maybe my original idea was better? Or perhaps none of this is feasible and I need to start from scratch? I just don't know. Thoughts?
None of it is feasible, and yeah I'd have to say, once you've read those books I've recommended you'll be able to appreciate there's a lot more to war than just "how much men can each side put up" and then give them cool weapons :) (It's all good that you haven't yet - I thought in a similar way when I wrote the Napolead years ago! All a learning experience :) )
If you really want to press on with your story, and have uber-Germany fight America and Japan, you could just put it in the ASB forum and say "ASBs just give Germany control of Eurasia and also give them a navy" and leave it at that. Although it may still get picked apart.

What I would recommend is instead, you think about why you want to write whatever story you decide to go forward with. If it is just "here's a cool idea to make a bunch of cool stuff go boom" then chances are you'll get bored of it after a few thousand words anyway (you don't want to know how many <1000 word "TLs" I've started and then scrubbed). If you want to explore a realistic version of a Nazi victory, first off there's already some great TLs out there exploring that for you to read (CalBear's Anglo/American-Nazi War being an excellent example), and definitely start up a discussion thread before you start outlining any sort of scenario - there's a lot of people out here with heaps of knowledge about the war that are happy to help you out! And actually plan out a TL before you start (I more or less sketched out the entirety of my current TL before I had written almost anything for it - you don't need to go that far but it certainly helps!). If you want to explore a German-occupied China (as an example), just post it in ASB rather than getting caught up on the impossible details that lead up to it. If your work is interesting people won't worry too much about how you got there in the first place.

Or, you are welcome to just ignore everything I said and write whatever you want anyway. This is supposed to be fun, do what you enjoy! (Unfortunately, ridiculous scenarios tend to get bogged down in dozens of negative comments picking them apart, but no-one is making you post them after all, it's your choice!)

EDIT: Turns out my first post to this thread was my 2000th post ever. I guess I've been making some good use out of my time on the forum! :p

- BNC
 
Some pointers:

-SNIP-

If I were the Americans I'd just let the poor bastards land in Alaska, cut their insanely overstretched and vulnerable supply line, and then start investing in humanitarian aids for the 25 million people that will need food and blankets to resist the harsh winter.

Just to pick a few ... uh, interesting points:

-SNIP-

No ... just ... no. All of the no possible. I mean, if you want 24 million already hungry and cold German troops (since their economy just collapsed, after all) to starve and freeze to death, that's a great way to do it. First you just need the shipping. Of course, there wasn't enough in the world to transport 24 million troops, but hey, that's not exactly the least realistic part of this scenario.

I'll start with this. The Nazis required a rather specific chain of events to get into power in the first place, another very specific chain of events to get them in a position where they can actually fight a war beginning in 1938 or 39, another very specific chain to get their OTL gains, and then an even more specific chain to get them to actually win the war. If you were to "reroll" the world a thousand times starting on November 11, 1918, you possibly get 50 occurrences of anything resembling the Nazis, and less than 10 where they start a world war and even fewer where they have any shot at winning at all. Hitler and his lot got very, very lucky on several occasions.

-SNIP-

EDIT: Turns out my first post to this thread was my 2000th post ever. I guess I've been making some good use out of my time on the forum! :p

- BNC

All very good points. I don't really have any way to rebut them, unfortunately. If I do decide to continue this, I'll probably do what BNC said and post it in the ASB forum.

I guess that means that this little exploration of a Japanese-US alliance vs Germany is over, at least for now. I'm going to make sure to do a lot more research the next time I post something like this.

For those of you wondering what my thought process was behind this, basically, I was doing some research and generally thinking about how to bring about a less military-lead Japan by the 1920s, at some point I stopped to consider what the long term implications of that would be and realized that without the Pacific War some really interesting stuff might happen on the other side of the planet. Now, at that time I was also working on a TL where Japan and America (from a world with a POD around 1810) fight Russia, and I thought that I could do something similar. AKA Japan + USA + Britain + China vs Nazi Germany + Occupied USSR. Combine that with the fact I was also reading a Man In The High Castle thread at that point, and you can see where my mind went.

To be fair, I still really like the idea of that sort of alliance, but based on what you guys have been saying A) I'm going to do a lot more research before taking another shot at it, and B) It probably won't have Germany get much past Moscow if they declare war on the USSR at all. Hell, depending on what I find I could drop Germany entirely and go back to my old idea of them fighting Russia.

In any case, thanks for all the advice, I do really appreciate it. Unfortunately, this thread is probably dead now, but I may revive it depending on what I find in my research.
 
Last edited:
Top