What would be the latest possible POD for a united, independent India where Pakistan does not secede? I have put this question here, although that does not mean that I exclude the possibility that the latest possible POD could be before 1900.
Also, another question: Would a united and more religiously heterogenous India be more politically unstable?
Last possible POD is 1946, with Congress remaining committed to the Cabinet Mission Plan. India would have been a loose confederation of three groupings (plus the princely states). It's a very open question though as to whether this would have been sustainable. It could well have fallen apart at independence or shortly thereafter, and could result in a period of military rule.
PODs in the 1930s are also intriguing. Most pre-WWII PODs will result in no partition. Or India could have won independence in the late 1930s (as a dominion) if Labour or the Liberals were in power in Britain. In that case, an unpartitioned India will in many respects resemble India today, but with a few crucial differences:
- It will almost certainly have separate electorates for Hindus and Muslims (as well as Sikhs, Christians, Parsis, and Anglo-Indians). Perhaps at some point in the future this could have been reformed to a more equitable voting system like one electorate but proportional representation.
- Politics will be coalitional and consociational from the start. There will likely be a cordon sanitaire excluding religious parties from power at the center.
- Congress may well lose power earlier. While Congress is associated with the left in present-day India, pre-Indira Gandhi, the party was actually fairly conservative at the state and local levels, despite Nehru's socialism. Congress might well anchor the center-right in this scenario post-Nehru, while an alternative left-wing grouping, probably with the support of Muslim voters, acts as the main opposition. This is especially easy to imagine if Subhas Chandra Bose survives.
- This *might* have resulted in a more unstable political situation than India had post-independence. This could invite army intervention if the divisions cause a severe political crisis.
- Some South Asian cities will not exist: Islamabad and Chandigarh, for example. Calcutta may have remained its status as the financial and cultural capital of India. The film industry might have remained based in Lahore. The national language would be Hindustani (in both Devanagari and Urdu scripts).
- Islamism and Hindu nationalism will still be problems, though somewhat lesser than OTL. Religious revival movements have swept most countries and cultures in the last several decades. Indian Muslims will still be influenced by salafism from the Gulf, both from Saudi funding of Islamic madrassas and from migrant workers seeking employment in the Gulf. At the same time, you won't have the government *sponsoring* Islamist terrorist groups. You probably won't have the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and you definitely would not have funding or support for the Afghan mujahedeen or the Taliban.
A unified India would have significant problems, to be sure. It would more politically fractured, and - like present-day India - have various social disturbances, riots, etc., from time to time. But you wouldn't have had the million dead from Partition, you wouldn't have had the mass migration of 14 million people and you wouldn't have witnessed the marginalization of Indo-Islamic culture.
