Largest Surviving Japanese Empire

[JamesBond88]

In OTL Japan's Empire stretched from the South Pacific to the islands of Alaska, and from China to Hawaii. This height couldn't have been achieved without sewing the seeds of its own destruction in the form of declaring war on the US. But suppose that Japan recognizes its inability to fight a prolonged conflict against the likes of the US, and takes all possible measures to avoid this outcome. How much territory could Japan hold onto in the near term, and onto the present day? The notion of Japan not expanding as much as possible might be borderline ASB, but I'm curious of the effects and possibilities of a more sensible Japanese foreign policy.

My personal assessment is that Japan could likely hold Korea, Manchuria, and swathes of China in a satellite state. The colonies of the European empires though is the big question, I expect Japan could gain some colonies in limited conflicts, or from great feats of diplomacy, but there's no way they'd be able to take Indochina or Indonesia without a victorious Germany.

What does everyone else think? Maps are welcome, but not necessary by any means.

 

[twistedirregular]

If Japan proves to be more sensible, it could choose to stop expanding into China beyond annexing Manchuria and transform China into a client state via supporting the Nationalists in their campaign to unite China. In regards to the European colonies, you could see covert Japanese efforts at supporting anti-colonialist independence movements throughout Southeast Asia and focus on expanding their influence in order to establish a genuine "Co-Prosperity Sphere". You'd probably need the civilian government to be more powerful somehow and successfully rein in the Imperial Japanese military from being too expansionist as well as batshit insane when it comes to Japanese expansion. Then again, this might prove to be ASB.

 

[Pelranius]

They probably could keep all the islands; Manchukuo is too artificial to prop up, and when it goes via the Soviets or KMT sponsoring an insurgency, Japanese Korea will go the way of French Algeria.

 

[trurle]

In OTL Japan's Empire stretched from the South Pacific to the islands of Alaska, and from China to Hawaii. This height couldn't have been achieved without sewing the seeds of its own destruction in the form of declaring war on the US. But suppose that Japan recognizes its inability to fight a prolonged conflict against the likes of the US, and takes all possible measures to avoid this outcome. How much territory could Japan hold onto in the near term, and onto the present day? The notion of Japan not expanding as much as possible might be borderline ASB, but I'm curious of the effects and possibilities of a more sensible Japanese foreign policy.

My personal assessment is that Japan could likely hold Korea, Manchuria, and swathes of China in a satellite state. The colonies of the European empires though is the big question, I expect Japan could gain some colonies in limited conflicts, or from great feats of diplomacy, but there's no way they'd be able to take Indochina or Indonesia without a victorious Germany.

What does everyone else think? Maps are welcome, but not necessary by any means.

Home islands, Pacific mandate, South Sakhalin, Kuriles and Taiwan. These territories were well recognized to be Japanese before the WWII. The rest is (Korea and Manchurian) questionable.

 

[walmart]

If Japan proves to be more sensible, it could choose to stop expanding into China beyond annexing Manchuria and transform China into a client state via supporting the Nationalists in their campaign to unite China.

Horrible Idea. The nationalists were anti-Japanese from moment they invaded Manchuria. A united china under anyone who isn't a Japanese imposed puppet is going to hostile and gunning for Manchuria as soon as possible.

 

[trurle]

Horrible Idea. The nationalists were anti-Japanese from moment they invaded Manchuria. A united china under anyone who isn't a Japanese imposed puppet is going to hostile and gunning for Manchuria as soon as possible.

Not quite. The cooperation between Japanese and Kuomintang has completely broken only in August 1937.
The relations were progressively soured after Mukden incident in 1931 (marking the creation in Manchukuo), but Japanese still sold armaments to Kuomintang in 1932. The relation difficulties of 1932 were mostly influenced by popular anti-Chinese sentiments in Japan, not the anti-Japanese sentiments in China. Chinese at that period were mostly concerned about economic expansion of Japan (under-priced clothes import in particular), resulting in boycotts rather than moves to re-integrate Manchukuo.

 

[JamesBond88]

They probably could keep all the islands; Manchukuo is too artificial to prop up, and when it goes via the Soviets or KMT sponsoring an insurgency, Japanese Korea will go the way of French Algeria.

If Japan gets to the end of WW2 without alienating the US, and isn't at war with the Soviets, I don't see how the Soviets could take it off them. The Cold War would still have happened, and the US would have been keen to avoid any Soviet expansion.

 

[walmart]

Not quite. The cooperation between Japanese and Kuomintang has completely broken only in August 1937.
The relations were progressively soured after Mukden incident in 1931 (marking the creation in Manchukuo), but Japanese still sold armaments to Kuomintang in 1932. The relation difficulties of 1932 were mostly influenced by popular anti-Chinese sentiments in Japan, not the anti-Japanese sentiments in China. Chinese at that period were mostly concerned about economic expansion of Japan (under-priced clothes import in particular), resulting in boycotts rather than moves to re-integrate Manchukuo.

I don't see China giving up on Manchuria and long term China will be a major threat to Japan .

 

[Pelranius]

If Japan gets to the end of WW2 without alienating the US, and isn't at war with the Soviets, I don't see how the Soviets could take it off them. The Cold War would still have happened, and the US would have been keen to avoid any Soviet expansion.

The Soviets just need to arm and train an insurgency and watch Manchuria and Korea turn into one giant mess (it's not like the Japanese are going to be able to confront post WWII Red Army). If anything, the US will probably try to support the KMT side of the insurgency (after all, apart from French Indochina, the US didn't support colonial empires).

 

[Tzaero]

Here's a timeline of relevance to the thread topic https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...of-the-soviet-japanese-war-and-beyond.398361/

It pretty much details an Imperial Japan that largely stays out of WWII.
It holds onto China and Korea for a while longer but ultimately loses them, much like Europe and it's colonial holdings.

 

[JamesBond88]

The Soviets just need to arm and train an insurgency and watch Manchuria and Korea turn into one giant mess (it's not like the Japanese are going to be able to confront post WWII Red Army). If anything, the US will probably try to support the KMT side of the insurgency (after all, apart from French Indochina, the US didn't support colonial empires).

I'm inclined to think the Japanese would be able to suppress any insurgencies, given that they wouldn't have fought in WW2 in this scenario, and would likely have had to reach some kind of resolution in China. If Japan controls, directly or indirectly, any serious portion of Northern China, I doubt we'd see a serious rising in Manchuria.