Into the Cincoverse - The Cinco de Mayo EU Thread and Wikibox Repository

[DanMcCollum]

IIRC the Detroit automotive industry got fucked ITTL, which certainly removes that factor.

It seems as if it is going to be more decentralized than in OTL, and maybe a bit weaker, but the US is going going to be an automotive powerhouse - there's too many factors that push in that direction (strong steel industry, demand, etc)

Because the CSA would never have the urban planning necessary to avoid that. Although I don't know that anyone will ever promote a highway system in the CSA that helps this along (I don't think they will have their own Eisenhower/Pershing, for one) or that the CSA government would even have the ability to build it even if they wanted to.

I could see Long pushing for a Highway system - puts people to work, helps give the natonal government more traction and clout, and - of course - it would be neccesary for national defence (especially after the disaster of the railroad gauges in the GAW). He'd probably actually use it as one of his Presidency's prestige pieces: showing that he not only brought order back to the CSA but that his government can directly impact, and help, the average Confederate's daily lives. And, because its the CSA, such a project would ALSO have the benefit of coming with a lot of graft included - it would be a good way to reward his allies and punish his enemies.

 

[Devoid]

And, because its the CSA, such a project would ALSO have the benefit of coming with a lot of graft included - it would be a good way to reward his allies and punish his enemies.

WAY too true. Although a likely consequence of that is that those infrastructure projects likely end up taking DECADES to get finished because delays = more opportunities for graft. Or at the very least, deliberately shitty road quality both as a way to overcharge the government (by claiming to use better materials than are actually used) and create more need for repairs to such road reworks.

especially after the disaster of the railroad gauges in the GAW

This could possibly lead to an expansion of the CSA rail network? Or maybe it's the impetus to abandon rail in the CSA for pothole-ridden, uneven highways.

 

[SultanArda]

it would be a good way to reward his allies and punish his enemies.

I can see several massive cities not getting the highway road for themselves because of their politician being against Long, while several small towns with a population of a thousand or so farmers getting a highway route because their politicians would have make their entire family slaves if Long wanted it so.
Which can create some ghost cities and some boom cities, as former transportation hubs who are unlucky to have an anti-Long mayor/representative/senator will find itself out of times, while once a sleeping poor town can be a new transportation hub.
It will be great to see the alternative CSA cities, come to think of it!

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Although I do have this idea that sprawl in the Confederacy is probably way worse than any other North American country. Not sure why - it just kinda screams the vibe that @KingSweden24 is going for in his Dixie-fried Confederate nightmare

If our author is going for a caudillo/one corrupt ruling party CSA like in many Latin American countries (looking at you PRI Mexico!) then emulating the horrific traffic of many Latin American cities (I still shudder when I remember driving through Bogota) would be one more parallel.

 

[Aged_Urbanist]

WAY too true. Although a likely consequence of that is that those infrastructure projects likely end up taking DECADES to get finished because delays = more opportunities for graft.

There’s a sweet spot between the world where anti-corruption measures slow everything down and reduce competition because of the sheer burden of compliance (procurement in most American public sector entities today) and the one where things don’t get built because corruption siphons off too many resources (much of Sub-Saharan African or MENA procurement).

IOTL Western Europe and East Asia do reasonably well in hitting that spot, the Anglosphere and Germany are too worried about corruption and most of the rest of the globe insufficiently worried. But the early 20th century political machines of the US were actually quite good at it; their voters expected work and an ever-improving built environment so they delivered, albeit in ways which favored political backers and friends to get a bit on the side.

Long, I expect, will be able to hit a similar sweet spot.

 

[KingSweden24]

I actually like the idea of cities in this alt-US being much more self-contained and not experiencing the sprawl that was common in the US of OTL. Some form of sprawl is probably inevitable - the US (and CS. And Texas. And Canada) simply have so much open space that it makes a level of sense. This, mixed with a strong automotive industries which make communiting more viable, means its going to happen. But, even in OTL, Canadian cities don't seem to suffer from it to the same extent as the US, so its certainly possible that the worst excesses could be reigned in.

Although I do have this idea that sprawl in the Confederacy is probably way worse than any other North American country. Not sure why - it just kinda screams the vibe that @KingSweden24 is going for in his Dixie-fried Confederate nightmare

Canadian cities are sort of the model, to be sure. There’s still sprawl-y suburbs for the reasons you mention but there aren’t giant freeways blasted through inner cities in the same way. More ringroads; more commuter rail. Suburbs exist and most people probably get around them by personal automobile. But the areas by train and subway stations have walkable downtowns with a sense of place. Stores have smaller parking lots, and often one to three stories of apartments on top of them. Less strip malls, less commercial real estate in general. Cities are typically 1.5-2x denser.

To use my Seattle area as an example - Seattle and the inner ring is way denser and more populous, like Vancouver and Surrey, and then areas on the periphery in say Snohomish County are much more small town or even farmland in their feel.

IIRC the Detroit automotive industry got fucked ITTL, which certainly removes that factor.

Because the CSA would never have the urban planning necessary to avoid that. Although I don't know that anyone will ever promote a highway system in the CSA that helps this along (I don't think they will have their own Eisenhower/Pershing, for one) or that the CSA government would even have the ability to build it even if they wanted to.

It seems as if it is going to be more decentralized than in OTL, and maybe a bit weaker, but the US is going going to be an automotive powerhouse - there's too many factors that push in that direction (strong steel industry, demand, etc)



I could see Long pushing for a Highway system - puts people to work, helps give the natonal government more traction and clout, and - of course - it would be neccesary for national defence (especially after the disaster of the railroad gauges in the GAW). He'd probably actually use it as one of his Presidency's prestige pieces: showing that he not only brought order back to the CSA but that his government can directly impact, and help, the average Confederate's daily lives. And, because its the CSA, such a project would ALSO have the benefit of coming with a lot of graft included - it would be a good way to reward his allies and punish his enemies.

Yeah there’s still a huge auto industry in the US, but it’s more than just three firms and it’s less hyperdependent on Detroit, specifically, even if that’s the epicenter of the industry.

Long was IOTL known for paving rural roads so that’d certainly be part of his legacy, but it’s nothing like Ike/Pershing infrastructure investments

I can see several massive cities not getting the highway road for themselves because of their politician being against Long, while several small towns with a population of a thousand or so farmers getting a highway route because their politicians would have make their entire family slaves if Long wanted it so.
Which can create some ghost cities and some boom cities, as former transportation hubs who are unlucky to have an anti-Long mayor/representative/senator will find itself out of times, while once a sleeping poor town can be a new transportation hub.
It will be great to see the alternative CSA cities, come to think of it!

A good thought!

If our author is going for a caudillo/one corrupt ruling party CSA like in many Latin American countries (looking at you PRI Mexico!) then emulating the horrific traffic of many Latin American cities (I still shudder when I remember driving through Bogota) would be one more parallel.

Indeed - traffic jams like Latin America or Southeast Asia would probably be pretty common.

There’s a sweet spot between the world where anti-corruption measures slow everything down and reduce competition because of the sheer burden of compliance (procurement in most American public sector entities today) and the one where things don’t get built because corruption siphons off too many resources (much of Sub-Saharan African or MENA procurement).

IOTL Western Europe and East Asia do reasonably well in hitting that spot, the Anglosphere and Germany are too worried about corruption and most of the rest of the globe insufficiently worried. But the early 20th century political machines of the US were actually quite good at it; their voters expected work and an ever-improving built environment so they delivered, albeit in ways which favored political backers and friends to get a bit on the side.

Long, I expect, will be able to hit a similar sweet spot.

This is indeed exactly part of why I wanted to keep well-greased machines as part of the equation for longer OTL - they were actually pretty effective at getting stuff built before the lawyer-industrial and consultant-industrial complexes took over in the 1970s

 

[naraht]

Yeah and don’t forget. The FHA, GI Bill and interstate acts aren’t acting in concert to drive all that sprawl in the 1940s and 50s on top of Texas’ federal funding and intrastate migration, so Texas would sprawl much later on

Also, Texas may get worse deals on the Rio Grande Water treaties with a stronger Mexico and working alone. Though the US will probably want to take water upstream of El Paso.

 

[naraht]

WAY too true. Although a likely consequence of that is that those infrastructure projects likely end up taking DECADES to get finished because delays = more opportunities for graft. Or at the very least, deliberately shitty road quality both as a way to overcharge the government (by claiming to use better materials than are actually used) and create more need for repairs to such road reworks.

This could possibly lead to an expansion of the CSA rail network? Or maybe it's the impetus to abandon rail in the CSA for pothole-ridden, uneven highways.

I still think it could be *incredibly* sad/funny if the easiest/safest way to get by rail in 1950 from Richmond to New Orleans by Rail is Richmond to Baltimore to Kansas City to Houston to New Orleans...

 

[KingSweden24]

Also, Texas may get worse deals on the Rio Grande Water treaties with a stronger Mexico and working alone. Though the US will probably want to take water upstream of El Paso.

A fair point, hadn’t thought of that

 

[Aged_Urbanist]

before the lawyer-industrial and consultant-industrial complexes took over in the 1970s

I come from the consulting engineering sector.

Don’t get me wrong, Shakespeare was right in picking targets, shoot all the lawyers first. But we need to be up there too, maybe behind the public opinion and equity consultants on our better days, but definitely no lower than fifth on that list.

Without those two acting as an intellectual justification for the “never build anything” crowd you’d need fewer than half of my cohort to build shit. Most of us would have to be (clutches pearls) construction management professionals instead.

The less said about the environmental services folks and the unending NEPA grift, the better.

 

[Aged_Urbanist]

@KingSweden24

More on point, without a very rapid suburban flight phenomenon, machine politics is going to continue for much longer, albeit in healthier ways than its OTL endgame in the 70’s.

 

[KingSweden24]

I come from the consulting engineering sector.

Don’t get me wrong, Shakespeare was right in picking targets, shoot all the lawyers first. But we need to be up there too, maybe behind the public opinion and equity consultants on our better days, but definitely no lower than fifth on that list.

Without those two acting as an intellectual justification for the “never build anything” crowd you’d need fewer than half of my cohort to build shit. Most of us would have to be (clutches pearls) construction management professionals instead.

The less said about the environmental services folks and the unending NEPA grift, the better.

The day NEPA is fed into the wood chipper is the day the US can actually start solving environmental issues for real rather than “solve” them by buying environmental law lawyers a new yacht

@KingSweden24

More on point, without a very rapid suburban flight phenomenon, machine politics is going to continue for much longer, albeit in healthier ways than its OTL endgame in the 70’s.

Indeed. You’ll still have suburbs of course, but growing at a much slower pace and a bit later on

(It’s important to note that even many cities in the 1910s/20s OTL were heavily single family housing stock, so North American land development patterns aren’t really avoidable. You’re not going to make most places look like Paris or Amsterdam)

 

[Aged_Urbanist]

The day NEPA is fed into the wood chipper is the day the US can actually start solving environmental issues for real rather than “solve” them by buying environmental law lawyers a new yacht

I agree completely but am genuinely surprised anyone else here does, given how this place usually is.

(It’s important to note that even many cities in the 1910s/20s OTL were heavily single family housing stock

Even at that point the median household in the US was over 2x as wealthy as the French or German, and its cities were newer and better planned.

It’s no wonder that Baltimore, Philadelphia, and the outskirts of New York are filled with single-family row/townhomes, Chicago with closely-spaced twins and quadplexes.

And also no wonder that we leapt into suburban SFH building early and rapidly too.

There’s no avoiding it in any TL, but land value taxes and a 1920’s era urban revitalization drive, plus no Great Migration, will means that the cities blend more seamlessly into dense rail and streetcar suburbs, rather than halting at the city line in favor of car-centric suburbs. Everywhere would look like NYC or parts of Greater Philadelphia, basically

 

[KingSweden24]

I agree completely but am genuinely surprised anyone else here does, given how this place usually is.


Even at that point the median household in the US was over 2x as wealthy as the French or German, and its cities were newer and better planned.

It’s no wonder that Baltimore, Philadelphia, and the outskirts of New York are filled with single-family row/townhomes, Chicago with closely-spaced twins and quadplexes.

And also no wonder that we leapt into suburban SFH building early and rapidly too.

There’s no avoiding it in any TL, but land value taxes and a 1920’s era urban revitalization drive, plus no Great Migration, will means that the cities blend more seamlessly into dense rail and streetcar suburbs, rather than halting at the city line in favor of car-centric suburbs. Everywhere would look like NYC or parts of Greater Philadelphia, basically

Agreed. That effect would probably not be quite as observable in younger metro areas out West (Los Angeles for instance) but east of the Mississippi absolutely, and even the West would have way denser towns than OTL, probably 1.5-2x denser

 

[BearBear91]

The interesting part to me at least would be cities like Buffalo (where I’m from) or like Indianapolis, that are smaller. Also god help the snow removal crews if cities look like the borough of Queens, man those streets are tight.

 

[KingSweden24]

The interesting part to me at least would be cities like Buffalo (where I’m from) or like Indianapolis, that are smaller. Also god help the snow removal crews if cities look like the borough of Queens, man those streets are tight.

You’d still have quite a bit of density in cities like that but places like Hamilton/Hendricks County, Indiana, are probably a hair smaller than OTL even with Indiana having a much larger population over all, just as an example.

Suburbs are still there - it’s just that their proportion of major metros is smaller.

 

[KingSweden24]

El Bronco Rides the Wave

It has been said that Mexican politics are like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde - one moment, a politician or party will be hugely successful, the next moment they are grievously unpopular. To wit - Vicente Fox governed as Prime Minister for an unprecedented nine consecutive years and resigned in late 2008 broadly popular; his successor, Santiago Creel, resigned after only fifteen months on the job due to huge unpopularity over his handling of the H1N1 "swine flu" pandemic of 2009-10 in Mexico. Marcelo Ebrard was at one moment the popular democratic socialist who built hundreds of schools, apartments, busways and parks across Mexico and saw Mexico's football team win on home soil, and six months later he was resigning over a wide-ranging bribery scandal that penetrated almost every corner of his Partido Social Democratico, or Social Democratic Party.

What is impressive about Mexico's current Prime Minister, Jaime "Bronco" Rodriguez Calderon, is his ability to speed run this process. Bronco, as he is almost universally known (and often derided) governed Nuevo Leon for much of the 2010s and the department's massive economic growth and prosperity is often credited to his populist measures and developmentalism. He further transformed Mexican politics when he founded his own party - Independent Broncos, or the BI - and, baffling observers, placed first in the June 2021 snap elections called after the collapse of the Ebrard ministry just months earlier, and did it again in having the BI as well as coalition partner Movimiento Ciudadanos - Citizens, a progressive center-left party - expand their seat totals considerably in April of 2023, when he went to the country demanding a "mandate of the people."

Eleven months later, much has changed. Mexico is teetering on the edge of recession as Bronco's government continues its obsession with controlling inflation - long a scourge of the Mexican economy - at the expense of everything else. Real wages, GDP per capita and foreign direct investment are all lower today than they were three years ago when Mexico was one of the few major economies to avoid the sharp but brief 2020 recession, while unemployment has risen from 7% when Rodriguez kissed hands with Emperor Maximilian II at the Chapultepec to closer to 12% now; youth unemployment figures are thought to be nearly double that. Making matters worse for Bronco was the devastation of Hurricane Otto this past October, in which five hundred people were killed and billions in damage were done in Acapulco, one of Mexico's major coastal cities and tourist hubs. All this is to say that if elections were held today, just eleven months after Mexicans last went to the polls, the Bronco would be turfed out; a strange set of circumstances for a man who just a year ago was considered one of the most popular Prime Ministers in Mexican history.

How can the ship be turned around? The good news for the current government is that though Rodriguez can call an election whenever he wants, polls aren't due again until April 2027, a long ways off. Though Rodriguez' populist flair on the campaign trail has raised eyebrows about his commitment to Mexican democracy, crime has remained low and Rodriguez has made a show of taming both corruption and bureaucratic bloat that has often angered Mexican people. While infrastructure investments have plummeted in the last two years compared to the splashy projects that are associated with the golden years of the conservative Fox or socialist Ebrard, Rodriguez has not cancelled major projects such as the rebuilding of airports or the high-speed rail line to Puebla that is due to be finished in a few years.

Nonetheless, the persistent austerity measures and the perception that his government mishandled Hurricane Otto - leaving thousands without water or power for days - linger. Rodriguez's growing ties to traditionalist Catholic figures have given his MC coalition partners pause, and there is a good chance that if they withdraw from the government, Rodriguez would invite in the conservative, Christian democratic People's Party (PP) to govern instead in a move that would shift Mexican politics sharply back to the right. While his endorsement of Texas' entry into the North American Free Travel Area was met with relief in Philadelphia, he has famously not gotten along well with America's milquetoast, center-right President Brian Sandoval, despite the latter's Mexican ancestry and eagerness to further deepen US-Mexico relations.

Bronco's ride so far has been wild, from the government house of Nuevo Leon to Mexico City, and possibly soon out to pasture again - but one cannot second-guess one of Mexico's, and North America's, most mercurial figures.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Real wages, GDP per capita and foreign direct investment are all lower today than they were three years ago when Mexico was one of the few major economies to avoid the sharp but brief 2020 recession, while unemployment has risen from 7% when Rodriguez kissed hands with Emperor Maximilian II at the Chapultepec to closer to 12% now; youth unemployment figures are thought to be nearly double that.

Overjoyed that Mexico still has Emperors. I'm assuming they are more or less figureheads but still, pretty cool!

 

[naraht]

Eleven months later, much has changed. Mexico is teetering on the edge of recession as Bronco's government continues its obsession with controlling inflation - long a scourge of the Mexican economy - at the expense of everything else. Real wages, GDP per capita and foreign direct investment are all lower today than they were three years ago when Mexico was one of the few major economies to avoid the sharp but brief 2020 recession, while unemployment has risen from 7% when Rodriguez kissed hands with Emperor Maximilian II at the Chapultepec to closer to 12% now; youth unemployment figures are thought to be nearly double that. Making matters worse for Bronco was the devastation of Hurricane Otto this past October, in which five hundred people were killed and billions in damage were done in Acapulco, one of Mexico's major coastal cities and tourist hubs. All this is to say that if elections were held today, just eleven months after Mexicans last went to the polls, the Bronco would be turfed out; a strange set of circumstances for a man who just a year ago was considered one of the most popular Prime Ministers in Mexican history.

I presume this is OTL's Otis, which keeps TTL's rule of keeping Weather events when they happen iOTL.

However, the amount of damage brings up an interesting point in currency. The amount of damage was about $11-$17 Billion, about 200-300 Billion (New) Mexican Pesos. This author probably wouldn't be referring to the amount as Billions if amount in (New) Mexican Pesos was more than 200 Billion. (they *might* if it was as little as 50 Billion Pesos, let's assume that as a Max) So at worst, it seem iTTL the current currency of Mexican is worth about 20 cents US. Note the New Mexican Peso is worth 1000 old Mexican Pesos.

If the Mexicans have not remonitized, then instead of OTL where in 1920 it was 2 Mexican Pesos to the US Dollar and in 2024 that (old) Peso was 17,000 Pesos to the US Dollar, we have a currency that at worst is 5 Mexican Pesos to the US Dollar and could be at equality.

So if the Mexicans have not remonitized, their currency has remained approximately as powerful over the last century where iOTL, it dropped to .1% of its original value!

 

[mortonofski]

[H]is successor, Santiago Creel, resigned after only fifteen months on the job due to huge unpopularity over his handling of the H1N1 "swine flu" pandemic of 2009-10 in Mexico

Oh, any relation to our old friend Enrique?

I presume this is OTL's Otis, which keeps TTL's rule of keeping Weather events when they happen iOTL.

However, the amount of damage brings up an interesting point in currency. The amount of damage was about $11-$17 Billion, about 200-300 Billion (New) Mexican Pesos. This author probably wouldn't be referring to the amount as Billions if amount in (New) Mexican Pesos was more than 200 Billion. (they *might* if it was as little as 50 Billion Pesos, let's assume that as a Mex) So at worst, it seem iTTL the current currency of Mexican is worth about 20 cents US. Note the New Mexican Peso is worth 1000 old Mexican Pesos.

If the Mexicans have not remonitized, then instead of OTL where in 1920 it was 2 Mexican Pesos to the US Dollar and in 2024 that (old) Peso was 17,000 Pesos to the US Dollar, we have a currency that at worst is 5 Mexican Pesos to the US Dollar and could be at equality.

So if the Mexicans have not remonitized, their currency has remained approximately as powerful over the last century where iOTL, it dropped to .1% of its original value!

Hasn't @KingSweden24 described CdM as a Mexico-wank?