Interesting… like periodic Baby Busts? One in 1913-21ish, another in 1941-50ish, one in the 1960s, 80s, and so on?
Into the Cincoverse - The Cinco de Mayo EU Thread and Wikibox Repository
- Thread starter KingSweden24
- Start date
I don't think there'd be one in the early 1910's, it's more about when people who would've otherwise been born aren't because their parents died or were never born - Eastern Europe being the most well-known example, as they experience huge baby Busts every 20-30 years or so based about on 1923 (the year where the most people who died in WW2 were born). In fact, I believe they're currently undergoing the fourth wave (the first being in the 1940's with WW2, then the second in the late 1960's, and the third in the early 90's). The carnage of the GAW means less people are born (basing it around, say 1895-1898, depending on how many people die 1913 vs 1916), and then every 20-30 years the reproductive population just smaller - thus leading to a baby bust. The Soviet Union's collapse and the current politics stuff matching with the busts is not really a coincidence.
Depends, of course, if the GAW actually reaches WW2 Eastern front level of horror - if it doesn't then the baby busts wouldn't be big enough to notice.
Ahhh ok I was thinking of the generation going to war starting 1913 thus not producing many babies starting that year but I see what you mean.
GAW probably isn’t as bad as WW2 but it’ll still be very, very rough on Confederate demographics in part due to the aftermath as much as the war itself
Not him specifically; though I’ve never seen a TL get creative with him
You are indeed correct! Maybe I use him for something in Canada, rather than the US
2020 Canadian federal election
The 2020 Canadian federal election was held on October 20, 2020, to elect the 45th Parliament of Canada. The minority government of James Moore, Conservative Prime Minister since November of 2015, was defeated in a landslide, along with its further-right confidence provider Reform, and replaced by a minority government under the Co-Operative Commonwealth Federation of Peter Julian, who was acclaimed as Prime Minister upon his securing a confidence and supply agreement with the Liberal Party and Green Party.
After taking over for John Baird after the November 24, 2015 extraordinary leadership convention, Moore had surprised observers by leading the Tories to a second minority government a year later in the 2016 elections in which they gained seats, buffeted by a strong economy and weak opposition leaders. During the following Parliament, however, Moore's government had been riven by infighting between moderate and conservative factions and was deeply unpopular with both the left and the "crank right" after signing the United States-Canada Free Association Agreement, in which Canada agreed to further limit its tariffs on American products and, crucially, entered a passport union with the United States that eliminated all border controls on both sides. Controversies plagued several reports on paramilitary violence in the late 1980s and early 1990s under the provisions of the State Secrets Act that implicated public figures in the political and economic chaos surrounding the revocation of Confederation by Quebec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, in particular several senior Tory grandees including former party chairman Tom Long. Corruption scandals took down Moore's Finance Minister Rob Nicholson in 2018 and Foreign Minister Scott Reid was forced to resign from Parliament in 2019 after being caught on camera suggesting Chinese-Canadian businesses in Toronto were a front for heroin dealers. Exacerbating issues, Moore's government was forced into an unpopular and unprecedented vote of confidence on recognizing same-sex civil unions early in 2020 following the passage of the Ontario Human Rights Ordinance under that province's Liberal government, with Moore supporting provincial conscience but his Reform partners threatening to bring down government, and the Tories and Reform together blocked the implementation of OHRO by one vote. Besides social issues and questions of corruption swirling around the government, the 2019-20 recession struck Canada particularly hard, and by the time the writs of election were dropped in early August for a seventy-five day campaign, Canada's unemployment rate was 8.8%, a full two points higher than a year earlier and its highest level in a decade.
The campaign began with a high-single digit polling lead for the CCF, led by Peter Julian since summer of 2017 and running on a pragmatic platform of provincial conscience, immigration reform, alleviation for unemployment and the cost-of-living crisis, and infrastructure spending. The traditionally third-party Liberals, meanwhile, were led into the campaign by Mark Holland, one of the few survivors of the 2008 and 2012 electoral disasters inflicted upon the party and enjoying the advantage of being the only major party leader from Ontario (Moore, Julian, and Reform leader Mark Strahl all hailed from British Columbia, as did longtime Greens leader Elizabeth May) and who campaigned on a more centrist-progressive straightforward platform to appeal to Toronto and Vancouver suburbanites turned off by Moore's pivot to the right on OHRO. Surprising observers was a surge of support for the Canadian Action Party which emerged as an anti-trade protest organization that attracted a variety of fringe figures of both left and right, running in direct opposition to the Free Association Agreement and positioning itself as an alternative to Reform for anti-centralist, conservative voters skeptical of Reform's shift rightwards on social issues during the 2010s and lack of appeal outside of the West.
The 2020 election was an unprecedented landslide defeat for the longstanding "party of government" Tories, their worst performance in both percentage and total seat count since Confederation, losing half their caucus, the majority of their frontbench and even Moore himself was defeated in his home riding. Conservatives were shut out of British Columbia for the first time in history and retained only 19 seats west of Ontario, just two ahead of traditionally Western-focused Reform. Reform's leader Strahl was himself defeat, though the party suffered a loss of only seven seats. The CCF gained 14 seats to become the largest in Parliament, largely on the strength of a ten-seat pickup in British Columbia, and became the first party to go from opposition to government while failing to add additional seats in Ontario; Holland's Liberals, in addition to winning their first seats west of Manitoba since 2005, emerged as the second-largest party in Ontario behind the CCF. The election was in particular noted for the overperformance of Canadian Action, which had been expected to perhaps stand pat, particularly in the provinces of Ontario and Alberta where it won several CCF and Tory targets.
Following the election there was some question of whether Holland would enter a coalition with the CCF, or whether he would attempt to serve as Opposition Leader; on October 22, 2020, Holland announced a ten-point confidence agreement with the CCF for the 45th Parliament through 2024 which the Greens under May endorsed separately, and Julian became the Prime Minister of Canada the next day.
After taking over for John Baird after the November 24, 2015 extraordinary leadership convention, Moore had surprised observers by leading the Tories to a second minority government a year later in the 2016 elections in which they gained seats, buffeted by a strong economy and weak opposition leaders. During the following Parliament, however, Moore's government had been riven by infighting between moderate and conservative factions and was deeply unpopular with both the left and the "crank right" after signing the United States-Canada Free Association Agreement, in which Canada agreed to further limit its tariffs on American products and, crucially, entered a passport union with the United States that eliminated all border controls on both sides. Controversies plagued several reports on paramilitary violence in the late 1980s and early 1990s under the provisions of the State Secrets Act that implicated public figures in the political and economic chaos surrounding the revocation of Confederation by Quebec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, in particular several senior Tory grandees including former party chairman Tom Long. Corruption scandals took down Moore's Finance Minister Rob Nicholson in 2018 and Foreign Minister Scott Reid was forced to resign from Parliament in 2019 after being caught on camera suggesting Chinese-Canadian businesses in Toronto were a front for heroin dealers. Exacerbating issues, Moore's government was forced into an unpopular and unprecedented vote of confidence on recognizing same-sex civil unions early in 2020 following the passage of the Ontario Human Rights Ordinance under that province's Liberal government, with Moore supporting provincial conscience but his Reform partners threatening to bring down government, and the Tories and Reform together blocked the implementation of OHRO by one vote. Besides social issues and questions of corruption swirling around the government, the 2019-20 recession struck Canada particularly hard, and by the time the writs of election were dropped in early August for a seventy-five day campaign, Canada's unemployment rate was 8.8%, a full two points higher than a year earlier and its highest level in a decade.
The campaign began with a high-single digit polling lead for the CCF, led by Peter Julian since summer of 2017 and running on a pragmatic platform of provincial conscience, immigration reform, alleviation for unemployment and the cost-of-living crisis, and infrastructure spending. The traditionally third-party Liberals, meanwhile, were led into the campaign by Mark Holland, one of the few survivors of the 2008 and 2012 electoral disasters inflicted upon the party and enjoying the advantage of being the only major party leader from Ontario (Moore, Julian, and Reform leader Mark Strahl all hailed from British Columbia, as did longtime Greens leader Elizabeth May) and who campaigned on a more centrist-progressive straightforward platform to appeal to Toronto and Vancouver suburbanites turned off by Moore's pivot to the right on OHRO. Surprising observers was a surge of support for the Canadian Action Party which emerged as an anti-trade protest organization that attracted a variety of fringe figures of both left and right, running in direct opposition to the Free Association Agreement and positioning itself as an alternative to Reform for anti-centralist, conservative voters skeptical of Reform's shift rightwards on social issues during the 2010s and lack of appeal outside of the West.
The 2020 election was an unprecedented landslide defeat for the longstanding "party of government" Tories, their worst performance in both percentage and total seat count since Confederation, losing half their caucus, the majority of their frontbench and even Moore himself was defeated in his home riding. Conservatives were shut out of British Columbia for the first time in history and retained only 19 seats west of Ontario, just two ahead of traditionally Western-focused Reform. Reform's leader Strahl was himself defeat, though the party suffered a loss of only seven seats. The CCF gained 14 seats to become the largest in Parliament, largely on the strength of a ten-seat pickup in British Columbia, and became the first party to go from opposition to government while failing to add additional seats in Ontario; Holland's Liberals, in addition to winning their first seats west of Manitoba since 2005, emerged as the second-largest party in Ontario behind the CCF. The election was in particular noted for the overperformance of Canadian Action, which had been expected to perhaps stand pat, particularly in the provinces of Ontario and Alberta where it won several CCF and Tory targets.
Following the election there was some question of whether Holland would enter a coalition with the CCF, or whether he would attempt to serve as Opposition Leader; on October 22, 2020, Holland announced a ten-point confidence agreement with the CCF for the 45th Parliament through 2024 which the Greens under May endorsed separately, and Julian became the Prime Minister of Canada the next day.
I still say Balkanized, right-wing, basket case Canada is your greatest accomplishment.
mortonofski
Donor
Great job, you got my soon-to-be-MP to resign for accusing Chinese-Canadian businesses of being fronts for heroin trafficking. Hopefully he still has his family department store empire to fall back on (although I think the more Orange!Canada thing to do would have been to have said department store empire's logistics network handle the heroin trafficking). As a bonus, you gave Lanark Landowner-in-Chief Randy Hillier nearly two dozen seats! I am impressed, and agree wholeheartedly with @Curtain Jerker's assessment.
(And snark aside, I would actually be quite pleased with a CCF-led government...)
(And snark aside, I would actually be quite pleased with a CCF-led government...)
Thank you sir! I am quite proud of it, and why I keep coming back to this well in the EU thread so frequently lol
Thanks! That you’re familiar with some of these goons makes the randomness with which I chose them even better! 😂 Hillier and CAP were tough to figure out, especially since I doubted David Orchard would still be leading the party in Parliament by 2020, but as a Canadian I’m sure you can figure out immediately what their vibe is these days from Hillier’s involvement…
Canada here is modeled a bit more after the UK, with CCF as Labour and Liberals as… well, the Liberal Democrats. One of the aims of the TL is that while Canada has a much worse 20th century it’ll have a decent 21st, as we’ll see while I move backwards (I’m only going to mostly cover post-2000 material in the EU since that’s so far off in the main thread)
mortonofski
Donor
Randy Hillier is very much on-brand for TTL, though he didn't reach his final form OTL until COVID-19 hit.
There were thoughts that something like this would happen IOTL in 2011 (with the NDP taking up the left-centre mantle, the Tories keeping the right alive, and the Liberals playing the LibDem spoiler role, in much the same proportions as Britain), but the Liberals (generally referred to around these parts as the "Natural Governing Party") came roaring back four years later.
Seattle Subway - New System (Lines 7-9)
The New System of the Seattle Subway refers to the lines created after the completion of the initial Bogue System by 1960 and the reorganization of the lines in 1964. In total, this includes Lines 7-13 of the Subway, primarily focused on extending rapid, six-minute-headway lines out into Seattle's suburbs, as well as proposed or under-construction future lines. As Lines 9, 10, 11, 12 and 13 were all opened (or intended to be opened) in conjunction with the 2000 Winter Olympics, New System lines are also often referred to as "Olympic System" lines or, due to their association with Mayor Norm Rice, "Rice Trains" or "the Norm System."
Line 7 - Madrona to Des Moines
The strain on the Dearborn Trunk, 3rd Avenue Tunnel and 27th Avenue Tunnel meant that any additional lines would need to enjoy their own infrastructure, and in the wake of congestion during the 1958 Winter Olympics the Subway decided to extend service into previously-underserved South Seattle, particularly in the proximity of King County Airport, today known as Boeing Field, which at the time was still a small commercial airport that had been frequently used during the Olympics. The Line was placed in its own tunnel bisecting Capitol Hill east-west, beginning at a terminus in Madrona and running through what was known as the Pine Street Tunnel, with connections to the lines on the 27th Avenue Tunnel as well as the Capitol Hill Circulator (Line 6) at stations at 19th Avenue and at Broadway. From there, it continued into downtown, connecting to the 3rd Avenue Tunnel at a new deep station at 3rd and Pike, before entering a tunnel running the length of Western Avenue near the waterfront and then under 1st the entire length of the Industrial District to the Duwamish River, where it emerged onto a high bridge over the river into the South Park neighborhood. This initial line, completed for revenue service in December of 1968, connected people to industrial harbor jobs and was in relatively close proximity to King County Airfield.
More changes were to come, though, as the line was well short of Seattle-Henry Jackson International Airport, then known as Seattle-Tacoma International. Arguments for a route of extension to SEA dominated regional planning discussions for nearly two decades as other lines were opened or streamlined and planned, with a particular debate around the long-term needs at SEA and the placement of its parking facilities. A route and approach were finally decided upon in 1981 and the extension to Seattle-Jackson was finally completed in March 1988, unfortunately a mere eight months before the collapse in air travel during the late 1980s oil crisis began, leaving the line used more sparingly than intended for the first several years of its use. Further extensions of the Line 7 were largely discounted for years, with focus instead placed on running other lines on its infrastructure to get more trains-per-hour to Seattle-Jackson, but a proposal to extend the line to a terminus at Highline College in Des Moines was finally approved by regional planners in 2012 during discussions on how to get more lines extended into South King County, and the Des Moines Extension, despite cost overruns and delays, finally opened in July 2020.
Line 8 - Eastlake to South Center
The Roanoke Tunnel was an idea bandied about in the original Bogue Plan that was put off for years due to concerns about its viability - Eastlake was, after all, already on a major north-south line. However, with spare capacity in the 27th Avenue Tunnel for the time being and a relative lack of interest in ending a future Line 8 at the increasingly obsolete Madison Terminal, Eastlake, via a tunnel under Roanoke, became the most obvious terminus for a new line, and Line 8's opening in 1974 made the neighborhood sandwiched between Lake Union and Capitol Hill thus a major transit hub that it remains to this day. The core of Line 8 was not its small hook west to Eastlake off of the 27th Avenue Tunnel, however, but rather the "New Dearborn Trunk" built between 1971-73 immediately south of the existing tunnel, with stations on the Old Trunk and New Trunk capable of cross-mezzanine transfers between lines using each track. The New Trunk thus opened up considerably more east-west capacity at the south end of downtown Seattle but also was unable to interline directly with the 3rd Avenue Tunnel, and so a new solution was born - running trains out of the New Trunk south, on an elevated guideway over 8th Avenue through the Industrial District. This 8th Avenue Elevated would be designed even in the 1970s to support an interchange station on the Spokane Street Viaduct, and continued on south initially with stops in Georgetown and at King County Airport (allowing airport employees a potential one seat ride to work) and then a final stop at North Marginal until an extension via the Duwamish Bridge to North Tukwila was completed in 1980.
Much like the Des Moines Extension, this remained Line 8's terminus for over thirty years, until a six-kilometer extension to the old South Center Mall campus was completed in 2014 after being approved in 2008; not coincidentally, in 2014, a master plan for a massive eco-district in central Tukwila at the previously auto-oriented South Center site was approved and began construction three years later, and the South Center Extension passed relatively close to the Tukwila station on the Amrail mainline for commuter and intercity rail services.
Line 9 - Eastlake to Burien
Other than small line extensions, the 1980s were a generally quiet time for the Subway, but planning for the 2000 Winter Olympic bid that would succeed in 1993 required a major push for hotel, airport and transport capacity in the Puget Sound region and Line 9 was designed to be a part of that. One major complaint in prior years had been the lack of connection for West Seattle to the rest of the system, which Seattle Mayor Norm Rice declared in 1988 during his inaugural "would be corrected at last" - indeed, planning for a "SkyBridge" over the Duwamish River had begun even before he came to office, but the largest expansion of the Subway since the 1930s/early 1940s heyday was set aside for the 1990s as Seattle boomed and the Olympics loomed. The first piece would be the opening of the SkyBridge between the Spokane Street Viaduct interconnection with the 8th Avenue Elevated, and when Line 9 opened in February of 1992 it ran only to a station at Delridge North, but still West Seattle finally had its subway connection. Phased openings then followed, frustrating residents and transit planners alike as overruns and delays plagued Rice's ambitious "Millennium Project" in the city proper. The line was opened along Delridge Avenue all the way to Delridge South in June of 1994, and finally the Burien extension was wrapped up in August of 1996, a full four years after it had been intended to be complete, though the litigious and expensive story of Line 9 was nothing compared to some of the other "Olympic System" plans that would become infamous over the same years...
Line 7 - Madrona to Des Moines
The strain on the Dearborn Trunk, 3rd Avenue Tunnel and 27th Avenue Tunnel meant that any additional lines would need to enjoy their own infrastructure, and in the wake of congestion during the 1958 Winter Olympics the Subway decided to extend service into previously-underserved South Seattle, particularly in the proximity of King County Airport, today known as Boeing Field, which at the time was still a small commercial airport that had been frequently used during the Olympics. The Line was placed in its own tunnel bisecting Capitol Hill east-west, beginning at a terminus in Madrona and running through what was known as the Pine Street Tunnel, with connections to the lines on the 27th Avenue Tunnel as well as the Capitol Hill Circulator (Line 6) at stations at 19th Avenue and at Broadway. From there, it continued into downtown, connecting to the 3rd Avenue Tunnel at a new deep station at 3rd and Pike, before entering a tunnel running the length of Western Avenue near the waterfront and then under 1st the entire length of the Industrial District to the Duwamish River, where it emerged onto a high bridge over the river into the South Park neighborhood. This initial line, completed for revenue service in December of 1968, connected people to industrial harbor jobs and was in relatively close proximity to King County Airfield.
More changes were to come, though, as the line was well short of Seattle-Henry Jackson International Airport, then known as Seattle-Tacoma International. Arguments for a route of extension to SEA dominated regional planning discussions for nearly two decades as other lines were opened or streamlined and planned, with a particular debate around the long-term needs at SEA and the placement of its parking facilities. A route and approach were finally decided upon in 1981 and the extension to Seattle-Jackson was finally completed in March 1988, unfortunately a mere eight months before the collapse in air travel during the late 1980s oil crisis began, leaving the line used more sparingly than intended for the first several years of its use. Further extensions of the Line 7 were largely discounted for years, with focus instead placed on running other lines on its infrastructure to get more trains-per-hour to Seattle-Jackson, but a proposal to extend the line to a terminus at Highline College in Des Moines was finally approved by regional planners in 2012 during discussions on how to get more lines extended into South King County, and the Des Moines Extension, despite cost overruns and delays, finally opened in July 2020.
Line 8 - Eastlake to South Center
The Roanoke Tunnel was an idea bandied about in the original Bogue Plan that was put off for years due to concerns about its viability - Eastlake was, after all, already on a major north-south line. However, with spare capacity in the 27th Avenue Tunnel for the time being and a relative lack of interest in ending a future Line 8 at the increasingly obsolete Madison Terminal, Eastlake, via a tunnel under Roanoke, became the most obvious terminus for a new line, and Line 8's opening in 1974 made the neighborhood sandwiched between Lake Union and Capitol Hill thus a major transit hub that it remains to this day. The core of Line 8 was not its small hook west to Eastlake off of the 27th Avenue Tunnel, however, but rather the "New Dearborn Trunk" built between 1971-73 immediately south of the existing tunnel, with stations on the Old Trunk and New Trunk capable of cross-mezzanine transfers between lines using each track. The New Trunk thus opened up considerably more east-west capacity at the south end of downtown Seattle but also was unable to interline directly with the 3rd Avenue Tunnel, and so a new solution was born - running trains out of the New Trunk south, on an elevated guideway over 8th Avenue through the Industrial District. This 8th Avenue Elevated would be designed even in the 1970s to support an interchange station on the Spokane Street Viaduct, and continued on south initially with stops in Georgetown and at King County Airport (allowing airport employees a potential one seat ride to work) and then a final stop at North Marginal until an extension via the Duwamish Bridge to North Tukwila was completed in 1980.
Much like the Des Moines Extension, this remained Line 8's terminus for over thirty years, until a six-kilometer extension to the old South Center Mall campus was completed in 2014 after being approved in 2008; not coincidentally, in 2014, a master plan for a massive eco-district in central Tukwila at the previously auto-oriented South Center site was approved and began construction three years later, and the South Center Extension passed relatively close to the Tukwila station on the Amrail mainline for commuter and intercity rail services.
Line 9 - Eastlake to Burien
Other than small line extensions, the 1980s were a generally quiet time for the Subway, but planning for the 2000 Winter Olympic bid that would succeed in 1993 required a major push for hotel, airport and transport capacity in the Puget Sound region and Line 9 was designed to be a part of that. One major complaint in prior years had been the lack of connection for West Seattle to the rest of the system, which Seattle Mayor Norm Rice declared in 1988 during his inaugural "would be corrected at last" - indeed, planning for a "SkyBridge" over the Duwamish River had begun even before he came to office, but the largest expansion of the Subway since the 1930s/early 1940s heyday was set aside for the 1990s as Seattle boomed and the Olympics loomed. The first piece would be the opening of the SkyBridge between the Spokane Street Viaduct interconnection with the 8th Avenue Elevated, and when Line 9 opened in February of 1992 it ran only to a station at Delridge North, but still West Seattle finally had its subway connection. Phased openings then followed, frustrating residents and transit planners alike as overruns and delays plagued Rice's ambitious "Millennium Project" in the city proper. The line was opened along Delridge Avenue all the way to Delridge South in June of 1994, and finally the Burien extension was wrapped up in August of 1996, a full four years after it had been intended to be complete, though the litigious and expensive story of Line 9 was nothing compared to some of the other "Olympic System" plans that would become infamous over the same years...
Would be amazing if the CSA was the ones taking point on this. Implausible bordering on impossible, but still amazing.
Gotta have *some* way to make Miami a desired tourist port for someone....
🤐🤐🤐
One doubts the Grits could have achieved what they did in 2015 without Justin during his peak honeymoon phase at the helm (especially considering how en vogue his brand of empty performative progressivism was during 2014-16). A 2015 with, say, Carolyn Bennett at the helm and a Mulcair Majority would be a fascinating TL…
This is not the ASB thread sir
Well you can always just have casinos and money laundering if that’s your concern!
