I read in an old thread from back in 2014 that the German Empire once considered purchasing Hokkaidō from Japan in exchange for a German-Japanese Alliance. What if Germany purchased Hokkaidō from Japan and what would this mean for Germany's power projection in East Asia? How would the Russian Empire react to German Hokkaidō being close to Sakhalin? Would the Japanese keep Karafuto to the north or include it in the deal with Germany?
Germany Purchases Hokkaidō from Japan
- Thread starter Montgomerie Ward
- Start date
Anaxagoras
Banned
Any Japanese government that even remotely considered this would be overthrown in a revolution, rendering the question moot. But since nothing like this would ever be considered in the first place, it was moot already.
Hokkaido isn't populous, it's never been populous. In fact up in 1873 it's population was just 58,000. That increased to 250,000 within a decade after the implementation of American farming techniques. But even then Hokkaido did not become a massive population hub as it only had a few million during WWII. Honestly, Hokkaido was not at all relevant until the early 20th century and then it was only relevant because of its food production.
Even considering that I'm not sure how plausible it would be for Japan to give the island away. However if any European power took it pre-1873 they could easily turn it into a solid, stable settler colony.
It would be politically unthinkable for Japan to sell Hokkaido. It already had 123,668 people by 1873. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_Japan_before_the_Meiji_Restoration (And this was to double within a decade.) In 1875, Japan, in return for acknowledging Russian rights in Sakhalin, insisted on control of the practically uninhabited Kuril Islands. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Saint_Petersburg_(1875)
Hokkaido may have been "sparsely populated" compared to the other Home Islands but it was not some uninhabited distant wilderness colony. It would be about as plausible as the US selling Maine or the New Mexico Territory.
Hokkaido may have been "sparsely populated" compared to the other Home Islands but it was not some uninhabited distant wilderness colony. It would be about as plausible as the US selling Maine or the New Mexico Territory.
trurle
Banned
IOTL, Meiji government has performed a systematic settlement program of Hokkaido since 1888 - it lured soldiers to Hokkaido garrisons which were constantly kept over-strength. Retired soldiers were given land lots on Hokkaido. And even before Japan had full sovereignty over Hokkaido and showed no tolerance for independence as early as in 1669. (during Shakushain revolt)
Germany purchasing Hokkaido may therefore work only if Japanese government is kept at the gunpoint. And the treaty will be cancelled immediately as the gun is removed.
The closest thing I could find to the suggestion in the OP was in Brand Martin, *Japan and Germany in the Modern World*, pp. 25-6.
"Consul Brandt, at his forgotten outpost, thereupon took to outlining highly promising colonial projects with which to assert his own influence on the then topical issue of whether Germany was to have colonies of her own. Since the Prussian expedition, German naval circles had secretly favoured acquiring Formosa as a colony. Brandt, who knew about this, tried to shift the German interest away from the subtropical island and towards the northern Japanese isle of Hokkaido. In two voluminous memoranda he tried to convince Bismarck and the admiralty staff of the natural advantages of Hokkaido and outlined plans for taking possession of the Japanese island by sending a 5,000 man landing force together with between six and eight gunboats. With typical early imperialist thinking, Brandt justified his plans for annexing Japanese territory by labelling the Japanese 'culturally incapable' and unable to cultivate the island by themselves. When the government in Berlin did not respond to these theoretical reflections, Brandt took action on his own and tried to create a fait accompli.
"During the turmoil of the civil war, the Prussian representative supported the Japanese opposition groups whom he supplied with arms. This did not prevent Brandt, after the victory of the South, from engaging in talks with one of the defeated daimyos (feudal lords) from the North about selling their land to the Prussian Crown. In order to prove that Hokkaido was perfectly suitable for German settlement, with the help of the Prussian Honourary Consul in Hokkaido a 100-hectare area had been turned into an experimental estate - 'Augustenfelde' - and had been taken on a 99-year lease. Bismarck, however, reminded the consul that the treaty powers, including Prussia, had declared their neutrality in the civil war. The Prussian navy was not altogether opposed to the project, but considered the present time as inappropriate. *However, in case the Japanese Empire collapsed the navy would be there to take its share.* [emphasis added--DT] Although his Hokkaido project had been turned down, far from giving up, Brandt, together with the geographer von Richthofen and the navy, pursued his colonial aims on a smaller leve1.7 He now looked for any islands which would be suitable for a naval base and which were outside of the new Japanese government's sphere of influence. Yet, Bismarck did not hold with these plans either. He considered the German navy too weak to 'stand its ground if in case of war it were to be seriously attacked by the enemy's probably superior armed forces'. The hazardous imperialist policy of the first German diplomat in Japan was thwarted by the unexpected ending of the civil war and by Bismarck's fundamental unwillingness to engage in colonial adventures."
https://books.google.com/books?id=7_jBOpYASMQC&pg=PA25
So, a few observations"
(1) We are actually talking about Prussia acquiring Hokkaido at a time prior to German unification--and indeed before the Japanese Emperor had consolidated his authroty in the Boshin War.
(2) The idea was that of a mere Consul (Brandt), and had no chance of getting Bismarck's approval. Obviously Bismarck thought German unification had to take precedence over colonial advantures in the Pacific.
(3) Brandt was not under any illusion that the Japanese central government would sell Hokkaido--he wanted to take it by force. Later, he did propose to "buy" it--from the defeated daimyos of the North. But they were after all *defeated* and were in no position to sell it. In any event, the short-lived Republic of Ezo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ezo was under the guidance of French military advisers, who would not be very likely to look with favor on a sale to Prussia.
(4) Once the Emperor had consolidated his power, there was no chance of Japan selling Hokkaido to the Germans or anyone else. Whoever wanted it would have to take it by war.
Basically, the only (very slim) possibility for a German Hokkaido is indicated in the sentence from Martin that I have emphasized: "However, in case the Japanese Empire collapsed the navy would be there to take its share."
"Consul Brandt, at his forgotten outpost, thereupon took to outlining highly promising colonial projects with which to assert his own influence on the then topical issue of whether Germany was to have colonies of her own. Since the Prussian expedition, German naval circles had secretly favoured acquiring Formosa as a colony. Brandt, who knew about this, tried to shift the German interest away from the subtropical island and towards the northern Japanese isle of Hokkaido. In two voluminous memoranda he tried to convince Bismarck and the admiralty staff of the natural advantages of Hokkaido and outlined plans for taking possession of the Japanese island by sending a 5,000 man landing force together with between six and eight gunboats. With typical early imperialist thinking, Brandt justified his plans for annexing Japanese territory by labelling the Japanese 'culturally incapable' and unable to cultivate the island by themselves. When the government in Berlin did not respond to these theoretical reflections, Brandt took action on his own and tried to create a fait accompli.
"During the turmoil of the civil war, the Prussian representative supported the Japanese opposition groups whom he supplied with arms. This did not prevent Brandt, after the victory of the South, from engaging in talks with one of the defeated daimyos (feudal lords) from the North about selling their land to the Prussian Crown. In order to prove that Hokkaido was perfectly suitable for German settlement, with the help of the Prussian Honourary Consul in Hokkaido a 100-hectare area had been turned into an experimental estate - 'Augustenfelde' - and had been taken on a 99-year lease. Bismarck, however, reminded the consul that the treaty powers, including Prussia, had declared their neutrality in the civil war. The Prussian navy was not altogether opposed to the project, but considered the present time as inappropriate. *However, in case the Japanese Empire collapsed the navy would be there to take its share.* [emphasis added--DT] Although his Hokkaido project had been turned down, far from giving up, Brandt, together with the geographer von Richthofen and the navy, pursued his colonial aims on a smaller leve1.7 He now looked for any islands which would be suitable for a naval base and which were outside of the new Japanese government's sphere of influence. Yet, Bismarck did not hold with these plans either. He considered the German navy too weak to 'stand its ground if in case of war it were to be seriously attacked by the enemy's probably superior armed forces'. The hazardous imperialist policy of the first German diplomat in Japan was thwarted by the unexpected ending of the civil war and by Bismarck's fundamental unwillingness to engage in colonial adventures."
https://books.google.com/books?id=7_jBOpYASMQC&pg=PA25
So, a few observations"
(1) We are actually talking about Prussia acquiring Hokkaido at a time prior to German unification--and indeed before the Japanese Emperor had consolidated his authroty in the Boshin War.
(2) The idea was that of a mere Consul (Brandt), and had no chance of getting Bismarck's approval. Obviously Bismarck thought German unification had to take precedence over colonial advantures in the Pacific.
(3) Brandt was not under any illusion that the Japanese central government would sell Hokkaido--he wanted to take it by force. Later, he did propose to "buy" it--from the defeated daimyos of the North. But they were after all *defeated* and were in no position to sell it. In any event, the short-lived Republic of Ezo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ezo was under the guidance of French military advisers, who would not be very likely to look with favor on a sale to Prussia.
(4) Once the Emperor had consolidated his power, there was no chance of Japan selling Hokkaido to the Germans or anyone else. Whoever wanted it would have to take it by war.
Basically, the only (very slim) possibility for a German Hokkaido is indicated in the sentence from Martin that I have emphasized: "However, in case the Japanese Empire collapsed the navy would be there to take its share."
It really is rather out of the way. The Japanese looked over Sakhalin and found it to be mostly worthless. While the physical value of Hokkaido can be debated, there really isn't much reason for the Germans to want it. Getting one of the Ryukus would be more well placed, though I suppose Hokkaido would make a decent settler colony. I wouldn't want to be the guy who had to tell the Japanese public that they were going to have to remove a hunk hunk of land from their national maps.
Max Sinister
Banned
Even in case Hokkaido went independent and Japan was powerless, I rather guess that either Russia, Britain or the US would snatch it before Germany can do anything.
It shall go to the US, of course. It shall first be named the Unorganized Territory, then be renamed to Indian Territory once Oklahoma is emptied out and they got the new inhabitants on a boat.