foreign relations of a surviving apartheid south africa
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FieldMarshal
Banned
China and Russia spent the Cold War supporting the PAC and ANC (respectively) against apartheid, so doubtful they would support the apartheid government. Pretty much the only reason the West continued to support the apartheid government was because of the Cold War; once that was over, they really had no friends left.
Assuming it doesn't fall, South Africa would probably continue to slouch along as a pariah state. They do (did?) have a decent supply of strategic minerals, so they might be able to keep their economy afloat that way, at least for a while.
They might just keep their nukes for fear of invasion from the Front Line States or Western intervention, which would probably make their foreign relations even worse.
In any case, they would probably be forced to reform somewhat in order to continue surviving (either from threat of rebellion from within or worsening economic sanctions from without). Might even turn out better than the mess South Africa is today in OTL.
Assuming it doesn't fall, South Africa would probably continue to slouch along as a pariah state. They do (did?) have a decent supply of strategic minerals, so they might be able to keep their economy afloat that way, at least for a while.
They might just keep their nukes for fear of invasion from the Front Line States or Western intervention, which would probably make their foreign relations even worse.
In any case, they would probably be forced to reform somewhat in order to continue surviving (either from threat of rebellion from within or worsening economic sanctions from without). Might even turn out better than the mess South Africa is today in OTL.
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Israel kept up relations to the very end. Is there any reason they'd change their policy for a surviving Apartheid South Africa?
SA had relations with the US and UK until the end of apartheid. Apartheid partly ended because of the end of the Cold War. No 'red peril' meant the dynamics of the relationship between the Government and ANC changed.
Czar Kaizer
Banned
Please tell me how SA is a mess today???? Are you seriously insinuating that some form of minority rule is better than the multi racial democratic state I live in today? Idiot.
Czar Kaizer
Banned
An Apartheid SA that survives today would need the support of the US and the UK but it would struggle financially as the sanctions were already killing the economy big time and even in the US and UK there would be pressure to pull support, I can't imagine a Labour government continuing to show the same amount of support that the Thatcher gave SA in out TL. Relations with the rest of the world will be dire beyond a few crackpot dictatorships.
As has been stated there is no chance in hell of China or Russia supporting the Russians, considering that the ANC had been trained and supported by the Russians for decades and the Chinese had provided similar support to PAC, it goes against their ideology of anti imperialism to support a reactionary Nazi lite, minority settler state.
As has been stated there is no chance in hell of China or Russia supporting the Russians, considering that the ANC had been trained and supported by the Russians for decades and the Chinese had provided similar support to PAC, it goes against their ideology of anti imperialism to support a reactionary Nazi lite, minority settler state.
Its not even just a case of realpolitik making Apartheid SA no longer needed by grey men in Westminster and Washington - the emotional popular focus of the 1990s was inclusive, liberal democracy has proven itself the only game in town. Saddam was a paper tiger the West kept locked down (his internal crimes aside) and much of the focus on a boogeyman was the Yugoslav disaster. Its not hard to link Western concern over inter-ethnic strife in Bosnia to a tottering racist regime in SA.
The pressure will just keep mounting and if the regime simply refuses to budge, it will not end well. Blair and Clinton would be very loud no doubt for instance. You've got a racist rogue state with partial nuclear capabilities. There's a game plan for those kind of people.
Blue helmets, no fly zones and racial violence might be SA circa 2000.
EDIT: Or it might not even get that far. The usual "Racist SA dies hard" scenario involves black rebellion but by the point Mugabe is welcoming US military personnel into Harare whose to say the white population don't say "enough of this shit, we'll take majority rule over race war".
The pressure will just keep mounting and if the regime simply refuses to budge, it will not end well. Blair and Clinton would be very loud no doubt for instance. You've got a racist rogue state with partial nuclear capabilities. There's a game plan for those kind of people.
Blue helmets, no fly zones and racial violence might be SA circa 2000.
EDIT: Or it might not even get that far. The usual "Racist SA dies hard" scenario involves black rebellion but by the point Mugabe is welcoming US military personnel into Harare whose to say the white population don't say "enough of this shit, we'll take majority rule over race war".
samcster94
Banned
Taiwan(under Chiang Kai Shek's son) and Israel(which has engaged in some quasi-Apartheid policies in Palestine in OTL) are the only countries that stayed in it to the end. I imagine maybe some military dictators would defend this racist government until the bloody end(this would likely mean Mandela is dead by the 90's: the USSR continuing may or may not be needed).
Israel retained relations following the end of the Cold War. What would change after 1994 to stop this? Or, if ANC were in a different position, how would that alter Israel's decision to retain ties?
We can use a different word for it. The non-citizens are treated badly and the citizens are treated well and there is no way to move between the two groups. What word covers everything like that?
samcster94
Banned
Many legitimate critics have used the word occupied or besieged to describe what is going on in Palestine(especially Gaza, the West Bank is illegally being settled by Israelis).
Burton K Wheeler
Moderator
In what conceivable way could an apartheid state be better than today's South Africa? South Africa is better by every single metric than it was in 1994. It's had poor leaders since Mandela, but the economy and national institutions are strong despite the immense structural weakness the government inherited. What could an apartheid government have done better?
FieldMarshal
Banned
I certainly didn't mean to insinuate that minority rule is better. States ruled by minorities tend to end badly.
What I did mean is that two decades of ANC rule probably haven't been the best for South Africa, what with the crime and corruption and all. Meant to imply that maybe different circumstances meant that someone else winds up in power in post-Apartheid South Africa.
So, yeah, sorry about that.
What I did mean is that two decades of ANC rule probably haven't been the best for South Africa, what with the crime and corruption and all. Meant to imply that maybe different circumstances meant that someone else winds up in power in post-Apartheid South Africa.
So, yeah, sorry about that.
A more general rule is in play, states with a permanent population of second class citizens tend to end badly. The citizens enjoy relative peace and prosperity for so long as the second-class citizens can be prevented from organizing. Like in South Africa.
To be fair Mbeki was pretty good actually. Economy was growing strongly and the ANC was at its zenith.
He had some blind spots (Aids, Zimbabwe) but it is unfair to lump him with Zuma in a league of shitty leaders.
Well I suppose a Palestinian COULD claim to have Jewish ancestry (I suspect a lot of them do) and convert to Judaism. Has that ever been tried?
Not as far as I know. In some of the occupied territories, Palestinians are permitted to apply for citizenship, but it's rarely accepted. I'm certain it's more difficult to find someone to help them convert, and then have that conversion recognized by the Israeli government, than it is to go through that legal system.
ben0628
Banned
Would a surviving Portuguese Africa and Rhodesia help stabilize Apartheid South Africa? I know that the ANC and Namibian rebels had camps and bases in Angola, Zambia, and Mozambigue, etc. Perhaps if white rule continues to exist in Angola, Rhodesia, and Mozambigue, it would act as a buffer zone between Free Africa and South Africa. This would help the apartheid government deal with internal threats who wouldn't be able to get outside assistance.
That being said, economic sanctions from the west are still a problem. Of course, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia will no longer have real ties to 'communist' nations in Africa which might open up relations between the two nations. Also, a colonial Portugal and surviving Rhodesia would be friends with South Africa as well. Not only that but doesn't landlocked nations like Botswana and Zambia rely on South Africa for its ports?
Also, for a surviving Apartheid South Africa, perhaps the white government actually put a real effort into the homeland idea (which in reality was a farce). If they were to give each African ethnicity its own nation (and actual large swathes of decent instead of the worst land possible), Black Africans would be content?
That being said, economic sanctions from the west are still a problem. Of course, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia will no longer have real ties to 'communist' nations in Africa which might open up relations between the two nations. Also, a colonial Portugal and surviving Rhodesia would be friends with South Africa as well. Not only that but doesn't landlocked nations like Botswana and Zambia rely on South Africa for its ports?
Also, for a surviving Apartheid South Africa, perhaps the white government actually put a real effort into the homeland idea (which in reality was a farce). If they were to give each African ethnicity its own nation (and actual large swathes of decent instead of the worst land possible), Black Africans would be content?