A couple years ago I posted a what-if about a fully Finlandized Eastern Europe which went nowhere. Here are some thoughts on what it might look like.
In countries from Poland to Bulgaria there is an understanding that local Communist parties end up in the ruling coalition even if they aren't needed for a majority.
Armies train for attacks from both East and West (though the generals may not actually find both threats equivalent).
Yugoslavia remains Communist (the Soviets didn't impose it there) and, with no Warsaw Pact, actually pays lip service to the brotherhood of Socialist states. Relations with the West are correspondingly poorer, though nothing like an Iron Curtain. In Albania, Hoxha temporarily allies himself with Tito before breaking with him once his regime is secure.
Germany and Austria are both unified but demilitarized (the four powers retain basing rights).The USSR is generously given transit rights across Poland by the grateful Polish people (or at least, that's how Pravda phrases it).
The Marshall Plan never occurs, the US offers debt relief, food aid and business investment across Europe but not in the quantities or quality of the Marshall Plan.
NATO is not formed. Western Europe forms a mutual defense alliance (I don't know if and when any Eastern countries would be included).
NORAD still exists, in fact the presence of a Central European buffer makes it even more crucial. Perhaps it includes Denmark (Bases in Greenland).
Turkey and Norway would not be neutral and their borders with the USSR would likely be more militarized than OTL. Each would also be a close ally of the United States.
Which reminds me, what about Greece? Is there a civil war? If so, the Communists will lose, they have no more access to international support than before (just Yugoslavia and Albania). A neutral Bulgaria will certainly not help them and with less focus on the Fulda Gap, the West has more resources to throw at the conflict. But is it possible for the war to be avoided. Could Greece too become part of the buffer states?
Far afield in East Asia, a Stalin more committed to his "socialism in one country" doesn't give a wink or a nod to Kim Il Sung and Taiwan falls.
How plausible is this? What other knock-on effects might there be? Most importantly, how does the world get there?
In countries from Poland to Bulgaria there is an understanding that local Communist parties end up in the ruling coalition even if they aren't needed for a majority.
Armies train for attacks from both East and West (though the generals may not actually find both threats equivalent).
Yugoslavia remains Communist (the Soviets didn't impose it there) and, with no Warsaw Pact, actually pays lip service to the brotherhood of Socialist states. Relations with the West are correspondingly poorer, though nothing like an Iron Curtain. In Albania, Hoxha temporarily allies himself with Tito before breaking with him once his regime is secure.
Germany and Austria are both unified but demilitarized (the four powers retain basing rights).The USSR is generously given transit rights across Poland by the grateful Polish people (or at least, that's how Pravda phrases it).
The Marshall Plan never occurs, the US offers debt relief, food aid and business investment across Europe but not in the quantities or quality of the Marshall Plan.
NATO is not formed. Western Europe forms a mutual defense alliance (I don't know if and when any Eastern countries would be included).
NORAD still exists, in fact the presence of a Central European buffer makes it even more crucial. Perhaps it includes Denmark (Bases in Greenland).
Turkey and Norway would not be neutral and their borders with the USSR would likely be more militarized than OTL. Each would also be a close ally of the United States.
Which reminds me, what about Greece? Is there a civil war? If so, the Communists will lose, they have no more access to international support than before (just Yugoslavia and Albania). A neutral Bulgaria will certainly not help them and with less focus on the Fulda Gap, the West has more resources to throw at the conflict. But is it possible for the war to be avoided. Could Greece too become part of the buffer states?
Far afield in East Asia, a Stalin more committed to his "socialism in one country" doesn't give a wink or a nod to Kim Il Sung and Taiwan falls.
How plausible is this? What other knock-on effects might there be? Most importantly, how does the world get there?
