effect on cold war of ottoman surviving

Let say WWI end as same otl with German defeat and Lenin in power in Russia but ottoman stay neutral.

Ottoman empire have turkey Syria Lebanon Israel Jordan Iraq Yemen Saudi Arabia Bahrain Kuwait Qatar UAE Oman.

Ottoman get Persian gulf states as reward for declaration of war against Hitler.

What are effect of ottoman empire surviving on cold war ?
 

Baldrick

Banned
If the surviving Ottomans don't implode owing to issues of inept governance and an oil-centred economy, I might be able to see them making it to 1939.

However, they'll get chewed up by the Wehrmacht in no time, with Anatolia providing a useful bridge to the South Caucasus in 1941. Even if a part of the empire survives in the Middle East, they won't do much.

edit: I have a hard time seeing the Ottomans gaining any territory in 1939 for joining the Western Allies. The British wouldn't be too keen on ceding territory right then, even to an ally.
 
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Garetor

Gone Fishin'
If the surviving Ottomans don't implode owing to issues of inept governance and an oil-centred economy, I might be able to see them making it to 1939.

However, they'll get chewed up by the Wehrmacht in no time, with Anatolia providing a useful bridge to the South Caucasus in 1941. Even if a part of the empire survives in the Middle East, they won't do much.

There's no way that the Wehrmacht attacks the Ottomans in 1941. Attacking Turkey in 1941 OTL would have been a fatal mistake for Hitler, let alone a unified Ottoman empire. That's another couple hundred miles of mountainous, hostile territory across a vulnerable strait passage. And when do you do it? Before Barbarossa, thus making a clear move to encircle the USSR that even Stalin can't ignore? You'd lose strategic surprise and the war gets much harder much quicker for Germany. After Barbarossa? Where on the Eastern Front do you strip armies from? How long will they be out of action, and how will you deal with British troops and supplies pouring in?

A unified and surviving Ottoman empire exponentially worsens this proposal. They'd have had years of war by the colonial powers to profit, renegotiate the unequal treaties, and retool their economies. Then, 20 years of oil profits from an increasingly oil-hungry world to further enrich, arm, and industrialize their country. Unless they go utterly without improvement or reform for all those decades, this is not going to be a house of cards you can just push over-it would be a massive engagement which would be undercut at every turn by the British.

Even assuming they somehow stole a march and charged across Anatolia, the empire is more than that. Try to thrust at the Caucuses across that area, you're going to be constantly at threat of being cut off and encircled by British and Ottoman troops swarming the peninsula.
 
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Garetor

Gone Fishin'
As far as the question of the thread goes, I see the Ottomans becoming a *powerful* point of focus for both powers. Definitely the most important neutral power in the world, at least until India and China begin their rise. The USA would be the most natural ally for the surviving Ottomans due to Russian fixation on the straits, but if they manage to really reform and experience a boom during their decades after WW1, they may well become a leader for developing nations who don't want to be drawn into the orbit of one superpower or the other. If the Soviets find a way to play nice and not be overtly threatening to the Ottomans, I think they play both sides against each other to get the best deal out of everything.

Ottoman control of Gulf oil allows them to exert outsized influence internationally, and soft power to the rest of the Muslim world would be concomitantly strong. I suspect they achieve nuclear status by the late 60's or early 70's. Ottoman control might be so threatening to the other powers that they explore fracking and shale oil earlier.

Honestly, the butterflies are so enormous it's hard to say exactly what the world looks like by the 90's. SO much might be different.
 
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