Consequences of Leningrad falling in 1941-42?

[Old1812]

POD: In October 1941, Hitler approves von Leeb's plan to clear the left bank of the Volkhov. The attack is successful, and 54th Army is overwhelmed. While the Soviets likely still make an attempt to create an ice road over Lake Ladoga, it isn't enough to supply Leningrad, which is forced to surrender by January 1942. Further south, Operation Typhoon still fails to capture Moscow. The Soviet counteroffensives still occur, but Leningrad remains in German hands. How does the loss of Leningrad affect the German-Soviet war going forward?

Assuming Leningrad falls, the Finns can now turn their attention to cutting the Murmansk railway, which cuts off much of the Northern lend lease route. Can Arkhangelsk cover for the loss of Murmansk?

The troops freed up by the capture of Leningrad - such as AOK 11 - should be helpful for the operations in 1942, especially Case Blue.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Does it really change that much? The Soviets are still going to win in the long run and a few more casualties won't mean the end.

 

[Parmenion]

Does it really change that much? The Soviets are still going to win in the long run and a few more casualties won't mean the end.

Can we please stop with this all or nothing mindset? Sure the end result won't change, but that doesn't mean we can'g discuss the changes to the course of the war

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Can we please stop with this all or nothing mindset? Sure the end result won't change, but that doesn't mean we can'g discuss the changes to the course of the war

What changes is German troops are free to try to conquer something else but I don't see how these troops can make the Battle of Moscow a German victory or any other operation being significantly changed.

 

[duckie]

I think it will have some major impacts even in the later stages of the war. Everybody looks at the situation on land and ignores the implications for the naval side in the Baltic. With the capture of Leningrad, all the ships / ports of the Russian Baltic Fleet are gone, Freeing up resources that where needed to contain the Russian Navy (mines etc) and making the use of freighters for supplying the nothern front possible (ice breakers etc during winter). Even when the Russian Army pushes the Germans out ofLeningrad, the Baltic Sea will remain an German Lake because the Russian Navy will have no ships and submarines in place. And the means to build them wil take years before being availble (shipyards / shipbuilders etc.).

 

[Parmenion]

What changes is German troops are free to try to conquer something else but I don't see how these troops can make the Battle of Moscow a German victory or any other operation being significantly changed.

I think a more organized push to cut the Murmansk railroad is likely. Even subtracting those, you free up several hundred thousand soldiers for use to the South.

 

[Garrison]

POD: In October 1941, Hitler approves von Leeb's plan to clear the left bank of the Volkhov. The attack is successful, and 54th Army is overwhelmed.

Well here's where I see a problem, you would need to show that the plan was likely to succeed. The Germans had lots of plan during the war in the East and they all fell short.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

I think a more organized push to cut the Murmansk railroad is likely. Even subtracting those, you free up several hundred thousand soldiers for use to the South.

Transferring troops from army group north to army group south isn't that easy, and if they just get trapped in Stalingtad then this doesn't change much.

 

[thaddeus]

my speculation whenever this subject is raised is for some greater naval effort towards Leningrad initially, the Soviet evacuations from Tallinn https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_evacuation_of_Tallinn (and a little more detailed https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/the-soviet-dunkirk-the-tallinn-offensive/) and a bit later from Hanko https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Hanko_(1941) materially aided the defense of the city.

in practical terms the Oranienbaum Bridgehead is likely eliminated https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oranienbaum_Bridgehead or never firmly established. the Germans would not be facing some or most of the Soviet naval guns employed historically and conversely might bring up naval vessels of their own (they have the ancien WWI-era ships with 11" guns)

I think it will have some major impacts even in the later stages of the war. Everybody looks at the situation on land and ignores the implications for the naval side in the Baltic. With the capture of Leningrad, all the ships / ports of the Russian Baltic Fleet are gone, Freeing up resources that where needed to contain the Russian Navy (mines etc) and making the use of freighters for supplying the nothern front possible (ice breakers etc during winter). Even when the Russian Army pushes the Germans out ofLeningrad, the Baltic Sea will remain an German Lake because the Russian Navy will have no ships and submarines in place. And the means to build them wil take years before being availble (shipyards / shipbuilders etc.).

it seems to me some reverse Stalingrad or Rzhev meat grinder writ large could occur with the Soviets losing Kiev and Leningrad but holding Moscow in 1941 and making some broad counterattack(s) in 1942, but the Germans would be holding onto a land corridor and be in a port city with Leningrad.

 

[Old1812]

Well here's where I see a problem, you would need to show that the plan was likely to succeed. The Germans had lots of plan during the war in the East and they all fell short.

I would like for this thread to be focused on the consequences of Leningrad falling, though I could create a separate thread for discussing the POD itself.

That said, I think this thread does a good job making a case for von Leeb's plan: link - the distance to Novaya Ladoga is comparable to the distance to Tikhvin, over similar terrain, so I expect the Germans could make it there relatively quickly. While taking Novaya Ladoga doesn't make the Road of Life impossible, I would wager it makes it significantly more difficult.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

It would have resulted in a depressing humanitarian disaster, even by World War 2 standards, and worse than the siege that happened instead.

However, ITTL, the Germans kept drawing up plans to take the city and kept shelving them, as the forces designated kept being needed on more important fronts. At the start of Barbarossa, Army Group North consisted of two normal armies, a panzer armee, and an air army. The panzers and the air were transferred out for the Typhoon push on Moscow, so for most of the war Army Group North consisted of the 16th and 18th army. This is about the size of the force the Germans would have needed to hold the northwest flank of the Eastern Front anyway, if they weren't besieging Leningrad.

And since the siege of Leningrad lasted for years, the Red Army forces in the pocket obviously weren't being employed elsewhere, so their loss is a non-factor.

Its a big propaganda boost, and this might matter. The improved naval situation for the Axis in the Baltic might matter. But projects to cut the northern Lend Lease route would run into the same problems that projects to assault the city ran into ITTL, that there are too many things going on elsewhere. Its also hard to get a POD going without German units being drawn or not sent somewhere else. As awful as the siege was, there were good reasons why the Germans just didn't take the city.

 

[Parmenion]

Transferring troops from army group north to army group south isn't that easy, and if they just get trapped in Stalingtad then this doesn't change much.

Well who said they'd get trapped in Stalingrad? If Leningrad falls in late 41, that gives them the better part of a year to move troops around.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Well who said they'd get trapped in Stalingrad? If Leningrad falls in late 41, that gives them the better part of a year to move troops around.

The reason why they got trapped in Stalingrad is because of leadership and lack of supplies, not really solved by conquering Leningrad.

 

[Parmenion]

The reason why they got trapped in Stalingrad is because of leadership and lack of supplies, not really solved by conquering Leningrad.

My point is though that a POD a year before Stalingrad means the battle may not even happen, much less the same way.

 

[Cudymcar]

While the Soviets likely still make an attempt to create an ice road over Lake Ladoga, it isn't enough to supply Leningrad, which is forced to surrender by January 1942

Nope, Hitler has other plans. He doesn't accept the surrender and keeps the blockade in place until everyone dies. And then Leningrad is erased completely, to the ground.

 

[Garrison]

I would like for this thread be focused on the consequences of Leningrad falling, though I could create a separate thread for discussing the POD itself.

That said, I think this thread does a good job making a case for von Leeb's plan: link - the distance to Novaya Ladoga is comparable to the distance to Tikhvin, over similar terrain, so I expect the Germans could make it there relatively quickly. While taking Novaya Ladoga doesn't make the Road of Life impossible, I would wager it makes it significantly more difficult.

But the consequences depend on the how and if the plan was even realistic to begin with.

 

[Old1812]

But the consequences depend on the how and if the plan was even realistic to begin with.

The plan seems workable, you just have to save Tikhvin for later.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

My point is though that a POD a year before Stalingrad means the battle may not even happen, much less the same way.

The Germans would still try to conquer the Caucasus, I doubt they wouldn't end up fighting in Stalingrad.

 

[Old1812]

The Germans would still try to conquer the Caucasus, I doubt they wouldn't end up fighting in Stalingrad.

Hitler knew how vital the Caucasus oilfields were, so I'm pretty sure Case Blue would still happen. However, without Leningrad, AOK 11 could remain in one piece and be added to Case Blue.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

On the game board the consequences are large. (Insert caveat about war-games not predicting precisely alternate history.). How huge depends on the specific game design. Usually its a tough fight that can go either way, & usually requires reducing offensive operations elsewhere from autumn to provide the extra combat power. The consequences have more to do with the terrain, getting around the Validai Hills, around the marshlands among other things. Also obtaining railway access of sufficient capacity to the region north of Moscow. The city itself does not mean much, other than its railways that pass through.