Greetings, everyone. For the past couple of months, I've been working on a timeline where the Kalmar Union survives. The POD is in 1520, so it's about as late as possible. I've gotten through nine updates thus far, covering topics like Colonization, The Reformation (Spoiler Alert: I had the Kalmar Union go Protestant) and the conquest of Livonia. I'm now beginning to get to the point where the butterflies and knock-on effects of the union's survival will really kick in. How would a surviving, Protestant Kalmar Union affect the course of European and later World history? What changes would come to the family trees of Europe's main dynasties? How would this affect Europe's balance of power? What happens to events like the Dutch Revolt and 30 Years War? I could ask more questions, but that'd be making this opening post too long, so I'm gonna pass it to you guys now.
Butterflies and Knock-On Effects of a Surviving Kalmar Union
- Thread starter Gabingston
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- kalmar union scandinavia
I suspect that they would probably focus more on germany than russia, and without the swedish threat, Christian IV (assuming it's the otl monarchy for a while yet) might have better luck. But because the core of the realm is Danish, germany and Prussia are active threats to dismember, a position similar to france and the netherlands.
"Prussia" is not a power for a while after 1520, but this raises a question: What does the Union do with (Polish-Lithuanian) Commonwealth politics?
That it might very well control the exit to the Baltic is pretty relevant to both that and Russia, but more immediately the former.
I'm phrasing this as a question because it could go several ways, just that things with the Commonwealth seem a thing in its future whether favorable or not.
That it might very well control the exit to the Baltic is pretty relevant to both that and Russia, but more immediately the former.
I'm phrasing this as a question because it could go several ways, just that things with the Commonwealth seem a thing in its future whether favorable or not.
The commonwealth seems like it would be their second concern after Germany- I forgot Prussia was still nominally under the PLC, but the south Baltic coast is probably still their main goal
tbh i don't see anything here that stops the decline of the PLC- if anything, i would suspect that Scandinavia would be one of the biggest pushes for the partitions if given a chance (obviously the writer can do as they see fit though) because where Poland served as a buffer state for Prussia, Russia and Austria, it can't really meet that purpose for the Danish led union.
true.
It's land worth taking, yeah.
Probably not, but there's some history to unfold before the PLC collapses.
I mean who are you having marry Catherine Jagiellon? The dynasty that succeeds the Jagiellons on the polish throne would have a massive impact on what form the union of Lublin takes, and whether the polish state ever declines as per otl.
Almost certainly won’t be if Christian II isn’t deposed. Denmark probably comes under a King John/Hans II after his death.
Here are some random musings:
Germany/HRE: Given that the people of the north aren’t busy killing each other and that you characterized Christian II as somewhat of a Protestant crusader, I think earlier involvement in the religious conflicts in Germany is likely. Perhaps a Nordic intervention in the Schmalkaldic war, which may escalate into a far larger conflict. Now otl Christian II was quite pro-imperial, but given the way things have been going in the TL so far I think it’s safe to say he’s had a change of heart.
Poland-Lithuania and Russia: There’s a kind of a mexican stand off between the KU, PLC and Russia. All have interest in the same territories, and whatever side can get someone else to ally with them are likely to be able to defeat the third. Given that the union has tossed the dice, I don’t think a temporary Russo-Polish alliance is impossible to try and push the Scandinavians out of Estonia and Livonia. Ivan the Terrible might get the Polish bride he desired iotl. Likewise the Union is likely eyeing up Danzig and Ingria to complete the domination of the Baltics.
Netherlands: Otl the Kings of Denmark wanted to see the Dutch revolt succeed, but also feared supporting it too openly as to not draw the ire of the Emperor - they wanted a secure southern front to focus on war in the north. With the north more secure in this TL we may see the Kalmar union support the Dutch more directly.
England/British Isles: Both the kings of Sweden and Denmark competed for English support in otl, if not for anything else then so that the other wouldn’t get it. Without one egging the other on, you may see less interest in England from Scandinavia, but if the kings of the union do take a more directly opposing stance to the HRE - and thus Spain, there may be a more real political reason for an alliance or at least further cooperation.
Germany: I looked up the Schmalkadic War (you can tell how little I know about early modern European history), and it's already passed by this point. We'll have to wait for the 30 Years' War or whatever analogue comes up in the future. From what I've seen, the two main causes were the religious conflicts in Germany and competition between the Habsburgs in Austria/Spain and the French, both of which still apply here. Sure, the Bourbons only ascended to the French throne in 1589, well after the POD, so that could very well get butterflied, but I see no reason why the French wouldn't be rivals to the Habsburgs regardless.
PLC and Russia: Not to spoil too much, but I plan on having the Kalmar Union keep Estonia and Livonia for at least another century, probably until the 18th Century, even if I do find your thought of a Russo-Polish alliance to push back the union very plausible. I'll have to get back to it.
Netherlands: This sounds really plausible, I think you've just given me an idea.
England/British Isles. Ad does this, although I'm not sure what a Kalmar Union allied to both The Netherlands and England would deal with a war between the Dutch and English. Another important question is whether Scotland stays an independent country ITTL.
Maybe TTL has Edward VI live? Maybe there could be a successful union of England and Scotland between Edward VI and Mary Queen of Scots? Or maybe Henry VII simply has more surviving sons?
I had Hans of Denmark survive, so Edward VI living is definitely plausible. I don't know if I'll touch Britain much, though. The butterflies will eventually grow so large as to make me change stuff over there, but the 1550s might be close enough to the POD to where it wouldn't change much.
There’s no shame in retconning.
Otherwise the in-reason could be that Christian exploited the emperor being distracted to get a free hand i Livonia. Franco-Habsburg rivalry started way before the 30YW, so you’re good there. Look at the Burgundian war of succession or the Italian wars for conflicts in the Valois era. I’m no expert on French history though, so I can’t say what non-bourbon dynasty could rise to power instead, or what possibilities that could kead
Yeah I get that Scandinavia is kinda the “main character” of your TL and beating down on them is anathema to the goal of it. The Union’s monarchs would be wise to work against such an alliance then, perhaps entertain an alliance with one side against the other (Poland is most likely, you can take a note from otl and give a vague promise of handing over land in the Baltics and then never do it) and supporting conflicts away from their own territory, in Belarus and Ruthenia.
They may have to pick a side eventually down the line, or possibly the Kalmar Union becomes the same international champion of Protestant unity - if successful this could perhaps lead to a reaction in the form of a more unified Catholic block too.
What speaks for or against them having a similar trajectory as otl? If Edward VI survives then there’s no union that way, but it still seems to have been a long-term Tudor goal to bring Scotland into their sphere.