'Blood-Stained South' - A Confederate Victory Timeline

[vonstraya]

This is the first draft of the timeline and is out of date. An updated version can be found further down.
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Hi! Hope you, the reader, are doing well and thanks for taking the time to read this. I'm only new to this forum but I've been chipping away at an alternate history for some time now that I call 'Blood-Stained South' about a southern victory in the civil war, very original I know but I just wanted to try my hand at it anyway. I wanted to drop an outline of the timeline as I've written so far to hopefully get some input and advice on where to go next, correct any errors I've made and get some general feedback. (Also note that I have a more detailed day-by-day timeline written up, this is just a more general overview)

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• The Confederacy wins the Battle of Gettysburg because the 1st Minnesota refuse to suicidally charge Wilcox's brigades allowing them to flank and overrun the Union defences on Cemetery Ridge. Following the battle the Confederates then capture the city of Harrisburg, lay waste to the surrounding areas to damage the Unions morale and economy before returning back to home soil.
• The New York draft riots escalate into full blown rebellion and the city descends into a miniature urban civil war of its own. The army cannot react quickly because of the dire situation in Pennsylvania. The riot causes a fire which spreads throughout the city causing widespread destruction and death. The fire is eventually put out and the rebellion is quelled but only at great loss of life and property.
• Because of the Confederate Victory at Gettysburg the Union is forced to divert troops away from the Western Theater and to the Eastern Theater, slowing progress in the west and allowing the Confederates there to better prepare.
• The Democrats under McClellan win the 1864 Election and oust sitting President Abraham Lincoln. McClellan is pro-war and seeks to defeat the Confederacy but the official policy of the Democratic Party is to sue for peace which is the biggest reason for why they were elected.
• McClellan shifts the Union war strategy and takes a more cautious and defensive approach when invading the Confederacy which he believes will be successful and save more lives, but this is a blunder and the Confederacy is able to exploit this to their advantage despite their otherwise faltering position.
• A Copperhead Democrat supporter attempts to assassinate President McClellan because of his resistance to peace with the Confederacy but they miss completely and McClellan is unharmed. The attempt incites conflict between the War Democrats and Copperheads as members of the Democratic Party are accused of orchestrating the attempt to put Vice President George Pendleton into power.
• The Democrats force McClellans hand and the Union seeks peace with the Confederacy. In 1865 an armistice is agreed to, the treaty is mediated by Brazilian Emperor Dom Pedro II. The Confederacy takes with them all eleven secessionist states as well as the Indian Territory. They do not control but continue to dispute Missouri, Kentucky and West Virginia. There are however still disputed territories whose ownership is not clearly defined such as in the Arizona Territory and Public Land Strip. The Union does not yet recognise the independence of the Confederacy because recognition would require a constitutional amendment and the National Unionists in Congress block it from happening.
• Slaves freed by the Union during the Civil War mostly flee to the north en masse but some using weapons left for them by the Union Army begin an armed guerrilla insurrection within the Confederacy to free more slaves known as the Freedmen's Insurgency. This rebellion is covertly and unofficially supported by the Union.
• Abraham Lincoln is not assassinated and continues on as a part of the National Union Party, but decides to take more of a supportive role in the National Union Party rather than its face and later becoming a cabinet member in government.
• A War Democrat supporter shoots President McClellan in an attempted assassination. McClellan survives but is permanently paralysed from the waist down. The attempted assassination is highly controversial and his subsequent trial becomes politicised, leading to riots between War Democrats, Copperheads and National Unionists.
• The Confederacy reorganises the Provost Guard to adjust for peacetime duties including acting as gendarmerie, despite their name, and as a secret police used to stamp out rebellion in covert operations, primarily interested in suppressing the Freedmen's Insurgency which both the Regular Military and Home Guard struggle to accomplish.
• France and the United Kingdom recognise the independence of the Confederacy after the conclusion of the Civil War which further legitimises them. This is strongly protested by the Union with economic sanctions but they do not act on it militarily.
• The perceived instability in North America, the ongoing tensions between the Union and Confederacy and the poor relationship between the United States and European powers discourages European investment in the growing American economy. While there is still a lot of investment in the rapidly industrialising Union, it is notably less than otherwise. The Confederacy receives even less European investment because of ethical concerns surrounding slavery. Instead Europeans focus more of their investments and later Imperial ambitions in Latin America, Asia and Africa. This results in the American rail network being smaller and growing slower than otherwise.
• The Confederacy intervenes in the Second Franco-Mexican War on the side of France in exchange for support in paying their debts, rebuilding their economy and for concessions in the new Mexican Empire. The Confederate soldiers are highly effective at fighting the Mexicans, more-so than their French counterparts, because of experience with the terrain and the enemy from the Mexican-American War. The Union supports the Mexican Republicans but their support is limited due to the distances involved.
• Because of their intervention in Mexico, President McClellan threatens war with the Confederacy but congress does not support him and the French threaten to protect the Confederacy, even though they have no interest in following through, so he is forced to back down. This triggers a constitutional crisis within the Union over the powers that Congress and the President have over military matters.
• Unionist and Confederate forces clash in northern Mexico during the crisis.
• The Confederacy slowly abandons the doctrine of States' Rights and gradually becomes more centralised and authoritarian, embracing the proto-Fascist philosophy of George Fitzhugh. This gives rise to a factional split in the Confederate government between Southern Nationalists, also known as Fitzhughians, centred in the Deep South and Jeffersonians centered in the Upper South
• The Confederacy enslaves all Free People of Colour, declaring that black people are an inherently servile race, and paranoid that the Freedmen's Insurgency was being supported by Free People of Colour and that they'd support a Union invasion if it were to happen. Free People of Colour and their White Allies in the Confederacy challenge this act and in New Orleans they take up arms in rebellion, but this attempt is crushed. Other Free People of Colour flee the country, primarily to the Union or Liberia. Those enslaved by this act are taken as State property and managed by the central Confederate government instead of any private owner.
• The National Union Party does not dissolve and instead remains a dominant party in the United States, effectively replacing the Republican Party.
• While they are supportive, both the Union and Confederacy are too busy dealing with one another to focus on assisting the Dominican Republic in the Dominican Restoration War in any way other than diplomatic. Despite this the Spanish are eventually ousted from the country and Dominica wins its independence.
• The combined forces of France, the Mexican Conservatives and the Confederacy are able to defeat the Mexican Republicans and the rule of the Mexican Empire is solidified.
• France offers to purchase Luxembourg from the Netherlands, this is protested by North Germany who threatens war with France over the issue, triggering the Luxembourg Crisis. As a compromise Luxembourg is annexed by Belgium and in exchange the Belgian border with France is returned to the pre-1815 status giving France land in Namur and Hainaut.
• The 1867 Reform Act is not passed in the United Kingdom which results in the Conservatives maintaining power.
• In Spain several army officers and politicians attempt a coup d'état to overthrow the monarchy but the attempt fails due to lack of support.
• In the Union the ‘Southern Question’ or ‘Reunion’ becomes a major political discussion; whether or not to push to reunify with the Confederacy or not. The National Union Party is staunchly pro-Reunion while the Democratic Party is mostly anti-Reunion but there are are vocal pro-Reunionists in the party.
• The National Union Party and their nominee Ulysses Grant win the 1868 Election in the United States. Abraham Lincoln while still active in the party decides not to run despite being offered the candidacy.
• The Confederacy formalises the Confederate Secret Service Bureau by bringing together their many disparate elements. It acts as an intelligence and national security agency, primarily interested with protecting the Confederacy from the Union.
• Following the Boshin War and the Meiji Restoration, the new government of Japan begins a policy of rapid modernisation but also holds back on most modernising social reforms out of fear of provoking a rebellion, maintaining the mantra of 'Western Technology, Japanese Spirit'. As a result the Satsuma Rebellion never occurs but the tensions between the aristocracy and lower classes remain high.
• The 13th Amendment is ratified in the United States which abolishes all Slavery. Prior to this however, Missouri, West Virginia, Maryland and Delaware all abolished slavery on their own which left Kentucky as the only slave state in the Union at the time, and they were undergoing a process of gradual emancipation anyway.
• The Union gradually becomes more centralised, removing power from the states and consolidating it into the federal government.
• The Franco-Prussian War is avoided because there is no succession crisis in Spain and the French peoples demands for war are lessened by their victories in Mexico and in the Luxembourg Crisis.
• In 1870 a border dispute over the Public Land Strip (Oklahoma Panhandle) leads to the Union deciding to reinvade the South to force it to reunify. They raise an army and use their navy to blockade Southern ports. France fails to respond because they have no intention to go to war with the Union and North Germany threatens them in tern. The South responds in kind and raises their own army. Fighting begins across the border territories, the Union holding the advantage and defeating the Confederacy in multiple key battles. This is known as the War of 1870.
• The United Kingdom intervenes in the War of 1870 because their economic interests are under threat so they send their navy to break the blockade and intimidate the Union. This succeeds and the Union backs down, a new armistice is then negotiated between the Union and the Confederacy mostly based on the 1865 Armistice but making the borders much more clear including handing the Public Land Strip to the Union.
• As a result of the War of 1870 the Provost Guards duties as gendarmerie and secret police are split off into into a new organisation, the Internal Security Commission, to better organise and streamline the organisation.
• The UK holds a general election in 1872 which the Conservatives win because of their success economically and in foreign policy, so maintain their hold on the country and continue to stifle attempts at further democratisation.
• In the 1872 Election the Democratic Party splits and runs two seperate candidates, one Conservative, one Progressive. As a result they lose by a landslide.
• The Democratic Party in the Union falls apart because of the loss of their main support base in the south, questions over what the party should become and being viewed as a pro-Confederate fifth column by many. It dissolves into multiple smaller parties giving the National Unionists virtually unrivalled dominance in government.
• Emperor Napoleon III of France dies due to his gallstones and compounding health problems. His 16 year old son Louis-Napoléon is crowned Emperor Napoleon IV, but France is partially governed by a regency until he reaches the age of majority of 21 in 1877. Liberal factions in France use the minority period to advance their own goals of democratisation and liberalisation.
• The Panic of 1873 is avoided because of the reduced investment from Europeans in America, particularly in railroads and because Germany does not switch to the Gold standard.
• The Public Land Strip is integrated into the State of Kansas so the Union can better stake their claim to it.
• The remnants of the Democratic Party reform into the United Labor Party, formerly called the The Social Democratic Workingmen's Party of North America; a coalition of Rural Christian Conservatives from The Grange and Leftist Labor Unions from the Knights of Labor, both groups empowered by the lack of slaves and sharecroppers to compete with. They are generally pro-Labour, anti-Big Business, anti-Immigration, Protectionist, Isolationist, pro-Welfare, pro-Fiat currency, anti-Reunion and anti-Expansionist. However there is conflict within the party between Leftist and Conservative factions primarily over social issues such as Race and Religion. The emergence of Labor ends the Third Party System and begins the Fourth.
• The National Union Party gradually becomes more accomodating to the Confederacy because reopening trade with both them and the pro-Confederate Europeans would revitalise the sluggish American economy. This process began following their defeat in the War of 1870, then accelerated by the collapse of the Democratic Party and finally the emergence of the Labor Party. The Nationals are still pro-Reunion but abandon their policy of aggressive and forceful reunification and adopt a more diplomatic approach.
• The Union drops the economic sanctions levied against countries that recognise the Confederacy as a way to revitalise their economy. The Union also later on opens up trade with the Confederacy to a limited degree. This has the desired effect of causing rapid economic growth.
• The Confederacy and Dominica together invade Haiti with the intent to annex it into the Dominican Republic and unify Hispaniola, to ensure Confederate economic interests and to get revenge for the Haitian Revolution. This is known as the Second Dominican-Haitian War (the first being the Dominican War of Independence). Slavery is legalised in the newly annexed territory but not in the rest of Dominica, while the regular army is defeated the Haitian people continue to resist with guerrilla warfare.
• Because of the growing strain on the infrastructure of Washington D.C and its proximity to the Confederacy putting it in potential danger, the capital of the United States is relocated to Philadelphia. The original District of Columbia is absorbed into Maryland while a new district is carved out of Pennsylvania and New Jersey around Philadelphia and straddling the Delaware River.
• The Union eventually recognises the independence of the Confederacy and passes the 16th Amendment to the Constitution to allow for this. They alter their flag to reduce the number of stars from 37 to 26 but this change is unpopular. The Confederacy also recognises Union control over Missouri and Kentucky and alter their flag to reduce the number of stars from 13 to 11 but this is also unpopular because it is asymmetrical.

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And that's what I have so far in brief, starting in 1863 and going up to 1878. I'd love to hear and thoughts, questions, corrections or opinions on it. I also have a couple of short stories written in this setting which I can post if y'all are interested.

Some things I am still trying to figure out is; What would occur in the Civil War following a Confederate Victory at Gettysburg (I'm not a big military history buff unfortunately)? If there would be an economic crisis in lieu of the Panic of 1873 and if so when? What the Confederacy would do with the Indian Tribes who supported them in the war? How Germany could unify without a Franco-Prussian War and/or how could a Franco-Prussian War break out in this timeline? And when an opportune time for a coup by the Mexican Conservatives against Emperor Maximilian because of his liberal principles would occur? Any assistance with answering these questions in particular would be greatly appreciated.

 

[IndefatigableRN]

Looks like an interesting start and I like the French angle. Albeit equally unlikely to play nice with the Confederacy as Britain, it’s an underused option (I think Napoleon’s Mexican ambitions make it possible and I find it more unique vs the standard UK entry trope).

That being said, I think UK intervention in 1870 is even less likely than during the Civil War (slavery in the South and economic ties with the Union will make this nigh impossible politically), even with a Conservative government. I think you are better off keeping the French as backers given your story thus far…

 

[vonstraya]

Looks like an interesting start and I like the French angle. Albeit equally unlikely to play nice with the Confederacy as Britain, it’s an underused option (I think Napoleon’s Mexican ambitions make it possible and I find it more unique vs the standard UK entry trope).

That being said, I think UK intervention in 1870 is even less likely than during the Civil War (slavery in the South and economic ties with the Union will make this nigh impossible politically), even with a Conservative government. I think you are better off keeping the French as backers given your story thus far…

Thanks for the input!

I had the Brits intervene in 1870 instead of the French because 1. the French are being pressured by the Germans who are pro-Union. 2. the Tories in the UK are not the more populist movement of Benjamin Disraeli but instead remain much more anti-democratic and elitist because there is no Reform Act of 1867 and 3. the economic sanctions imposed on them by the Union and decoupling because of the perceived instability in North America mean they're less invested in the North so a war would be less damaging.

Do you reckon these are good enough reasons or is Britain just too anti-Slavery to consider military intervention?

 

[IndefatigableRN]

Thanks for the input!

I had the Brits intervene in 1870 instead of the French because 1. the French are being pressured by the Germans who are pro-Union. 2. the Tories in the UK are not the more populist movement of Benjamin Disraeli but instead remain much more anti-democratic and elitist because there is no Reform Act of 1867 and 3. the economic sanctions imposed on them by the Union and decoupling because of the perceived instability in North America mean they're less invested in the North so a war would be less damaging.

Do you reckon these are good enough reasons or is Britain just too anti-Slavery to consider military intervention?

Even with such a Conservative Party in power, I think by 1870 the UK is too anti-slavery and perhaps equally important, would not want to jeopardise British North America. Also, it and the North are too economically dependent on one another (even with your proposed breakdown in relations).

Personally, I am not convinced that Prussia/Germany would care much about a North American conflict tbh (I think this is an odd trope from Harry Turtledove who wanted to create a WWI in NA plot).

Obviously, it’s your story (and it’s an interesting one so far), but I think a revitalised 2nd French Empire feels like a more likely partner, especially given your set up so far!

 

[vonstraya]

Even with such a Conservative Party in power, I think by 1870 the UK is too anti-slavery and perhaps equally important, would not want to jeopardise British North America. Also, it and the North are too economically dependent on one another (even with your proposed breakdown in relations).

Personally, I am not convinced that Prussia/Germany would care much about a North American conflict tbh (I think this is an odd trope from Harry Turtledove who wanted to create a WWI in NA plot).

Obviously, it’s your story (and it’s an interesting one so far), but I think a revitalised 2nd French Empire feels like a more likely partner, especially given your set up so far!

Good point, I didn't really consider what it'd mean for British North America. And with Germany I figured Bismarck would still be itching for a fight and use it as an excuse to threaten the French, but you're right I now doubt the rest of Germany would care enough

 

[vonstraya]

Right now I am working on the alternate Gettysburg Campaign in this timeline in the aftermath of the titular battle. I am now not so certain that the Confederates would be able to capture Harrisburg so some opinions would be appreciated. I'll lay out the situation here:

Following their defeat at Gettysburg the AotP retreats to Pipe Creek where they have a defensive line established. the Rebel vanguard chases them the whole way, skirmishing with them briefly but primarily to monitor their movements. The next day the rain begins, the entire Mid-Atlantic region is hit by torrential rains for four days between July 4th and July 8th, this muddies up the roads and swells rivers making travel very difficult. The AoNV follows closely behind the AotP and takes up a position opposite them at Littlestown and Hanover. Advance forces of the two armies skirmish at Union Mills and Dug Hill near Manchester where the Confederates seize the tactical heights overlooking the Unions right flank. While originally Lee was planning to engage the AotP in a decisive battle to break them once and for all while they're weak, the rain, the losses sustained by his army at Gettysburg and recent news of the Fall of Vicksburg encourages him to change his strategy; he dispatches Richard Ewell and the Second Corps to capture the town Harrisburg while Lee and the rest of the army keeps tabs on Meade and the AotP, to secure one last victory to deal damage to the Unions morale and economy before returning back to Virginia. Because of the weather it takes Ewell three days to reach the Susquehanna River opposite Harrisburg.

While the Gettysburg campaign was ongoing, Harrisburg has not been sitting idly by; the capital of Pennsylvania and a major railway hub for crossing the Appalachians, the city was always known to be a prime target of the Confederates. Defense of the city was led by Darius Couch who had about three divisions worth of troops, mostly inexperienced emergency militia called up by the governor of Pennsylvania and national guard from Pennsylvania and New York. Couch had been fortifying the city for weeks by this point including the erection of two makeshift fortifications on the opposite side of the Susquehanna near the settlement of Bridgeport; Fort Washington and Fort Couch. He had also prepared the destruction by burning of the Camelback Bridge which crossed the Susquehanna, this strategy had been successful at Columbia-Wrightsville where the burning of its bridge prevented John Gordons men from crossing the river earlier in the same campaign, but the river at Harrisburg was fordable under normal conditions so this bridges destruction would be less effective than at Columbia-Wrightsville.

My first question is; did I get all of this right factually?

My second question is; given these conditions could Ewell successfully capture Harrisburg? The torrential rains mean that the Camelback Bridge is the only crossing available until the flooding subsides which could take a week or so, but the damp conditions may also prevent the bridge from being burned successfully in the panic of battle. Ewells forces are veterans but are also exhausted from the Battle of Gettysburg. Meanwhile Couchs forces are inexperienced but are in an excellent defensive position on the opposite side of a river and in an entrenched urban environment. I'm leaning towards a probable no he can't successfully take the city, most likely the Rebels could overrun Forts Washington and Couch but not successfully cross the Susquehanna. What do you think?

The Camelback Bridge with Harrisburg in the background (date unknown)

 

[TrevorFromStarWarsBackup]

more detailed day-by-day timeline written

Would love to see this

 

[vonstraya]

Hi! Hope you, the reader, are doing well and thanks for dropping by.
I've been working on the timeline more for the past two months now and quite a lot has been added and changed (I keep learning new things and having to rewrite parts I've already finished, unfortunately, the day-by-day timeline is now out of date because of this ) SO here is the new updated version of the timeline going all the way to 1880. I am also working on some short stories set in this timeline to flesh it out more so expect those coming soon. I also have some maps of the Battle of Gettysburg and the Gettysburg Campaign of this timeline on the way, but they still need some more polish because they're ugly.
Hope you like what I've done and I'd love to hear any feedback! Seriously! Any feedback is very welcome.

EDIT: I have also been regularly editing this timeline to add new events or change old ones, so the current version looks very different from what I originally posted here.

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1863

• The Confederacy wins the Battle of Gettysburg because the 1st Minnesota Regiment chooses disobey orders and not suicidally charge Wilcox's brigades, allowing them to flank and overrun the Union defences on Cemetery Ridge leading to the Union being forced into retreat.
• Following the Battle of Gettysburg, the Union Army of the Potomac falls back to Pipe Creek where they have defensive lines already established. Meanwhile, the Confederate Army of Northern Virginia captures the city of Harrisburg and lay waste to the surrounding areas which damages the Unions morale and economy, before returning back to home soil. Robert E. Lee is unwilling to engage in another major battle or advance any further than Harrisburg and the Susquehanna without overstretching himself and leaving his army exposed to counterattack, and poor weather conditions slow their movement. On hearing news of the New York City Rebellion, Lee considers the campaign a success and decides to return back to friendly soil, while conversely, news of the capture of Vicksburg encourages him to return to the defensive.
• In response to the second drawing of draft numbers in New York City a riot breaks out in opposition. The police are unable to suppress the rioters and it escalates out of control. The riot is even larger in scale than otherwise because of the defeat at Gettysburg emboldening anti-war sympathisers. The army and state militia cannot react quickly enough because of the dire military situation in Pennsylvania. The situation worsens as the rioters organise into a militia and seize control of Manhattan, capturing the City Hall and establishing an ad hoc provisional government which declares the Conscription Act to be unconstitutional and later on even declaring the secession of New York from the Union. The rebellion grows out of control sparking a fire that burns down a sizable section of the city. Eventually, the rebellion and fires are quelled with a military response. This episode is called the New York City Rebellion.
• Because of the defeat at Gettysburg the Union is forced to relocate troops from the western theatre to the eastern theatre to reinforce their position, which slows their progress in the west. This includes Ulysses S. Grant who takes command of the Army of the Potomac following the dismissal of George Meade. Inversely, the Confederacy is able to focus more on the collapsing Western theatre following their successes in the East.
• At the Battle of Chickamauga, additional forces dispatched to aid the Army of Tennessee from the Army of Northern Virginia are the deciding factor in the final hours of the battle and the Union line at Horseshoe Ridge is overrun leading to a crushing Union defeat as their rearguard actions falter and Confederate cavalry chase and destroy a whole third of the Army of the Cumberland.

1864

• The Army of the Potomac, now under the command of Grant, invades Virginia in the Overland Campaign, seeking to score a critical victory against the Army of Northern Virginia and turn the tide of the war. While not a decisive blow against the Confederacy, the campaign does see some success, but causes high casualties.
• Because of their defeats on the battlefield, slowed progress invading the Confederacy and internal instability, the majority of the northern public turns against the war effort and the Democrats under George McClellan win the 1864 Election, ousting President Abraham Lincoln and the Republicans. McClellan is pro-war and seeks to defeat the Confederacy but the official policy of the Democratic Party is to sue for peace which is the biggest reason for why they were elected, this creates tension and conflict within the incoming government between pro and anti-war factions.

1865

• McClellan shifts the Union war strategy and takes a more cautious and defensive approach when invading the Confederacy which he believes will be successful and save more lives, focusing primarily on starving the Confederacy out with the blockade as per the Anaconda Plan, but this is a blunder which buys the Confederacy more time despite their otherwise faltering position, delaying what would otherwise be certain defeat.
• Abraham Lincoln is not assassinated and continues on as a part of the National Union Party, but decides to take more of a supportive role in the party rather than its face because of his polarising reputation.
• Following the death of Chief George Augustus Frederic II of the Mosquito Reserve, his nephew William Henry Clarence is elected as the next chief, however, the government of Nicaragua refuses to acknowledge his claim. William claims this to be a violation of the Treaty of Managua and he turns to the United Kingdom for aid. In response, the UK supports William's claim and sends troops to the Mosquito Coast to occupy the region to back him, effectively turning the Mosquito Reserve into a de facto protectorate, as it had been five years prior. Nicaragua is forced to acknowledge William as chief and tolerate the British occupation. The United States denounces this occupation as a violation of the Clayton-Bulwer Treaty and the Monroe Doctrine, but they are unable to do anything to stop it.
• A Copperhead Democrat supporter shoots and kills President McClellan because of his resistance to peace with the Confederacy. Vice President George Pendleton succeeds McClellan as President. Pendleton, unlike McClellan, is a Copperhead and is opposed to the continuation of the war and begins the process of seeking peace, much to the opposition of the National Unionists and War Democrats.
• The Union seeks peace with the Confederacy after diplomatic pressure from the United Kingdom and France and a series of nation-wide protests and riots. Union Secretary of State James Guthrie resigns when ordered to seek peace with the Confederacy - he is replaced by Samuel Cox. Negotiations are opened up and delegates meet in Washington D.C to discuss peace terms and a ceasefire is called while negotiations are held. Brazil was initially invited to mediate the peace talks but they were otherwise distracted by the War of the Triple Alliance and so the United Kingdom takes the role of mediator instead.
• Napoleon III, due to rising tensions in Europe and friction between himself and Maximilian, withdraws part of the French army from Mexico back to France, however, this withdrawal is not nearly as complete as it otherwise would be and the majority of the French expeditionary force remains behind. In response, Austria sends additional volunteer forces to Mexico to support the Imperial regime.
• In reaction to the opening of peace talks National Unionists and War Democrats protest and riot in cities across the Union. During the peace negotiations, a Unionist supporter throws a bomb into the hall where they are taking place, injuring several delegates and bystanders but not killing anyone. This delays negotiations but does not prevent them.
• While they are supportive, both the Union and Confederacy are too busy dealing with one another to focus on assisting the Dominican Republic in the Dominican Restoration War in any way other than diplomacy. Some scant volunteer forces from the Union do join the Dominicans though. The war continues longer than it otherwise would.

1866

• An armistice is agreed to known as the Arlington Armistice, temporarily ending the American Civil War. The Union withdraws its forces from all eleven of the secessionist states as well as the Indian Territory. The Union is however granted unrestricted access to the Mississippi River for transport purposes. There are however still disputed territories whose ownership is not clearly defined such as in the Arizona Territory and Public Land Strip. West Virginia, Kentucky and Missouri are acknowledged as under Union control de facto, but the Confederacy refuses to acknowledge the loss of these regions. The Union does not yet recognise the independence of the Confederacy because recognition would require a constitutional amendment and the National Unionists and War Democrats in Congress block it from happening. The United Kingdom, despite their role as mediator, still does not yet recognise the independence of the Confederacy.
• Slaves freed by the Union during the Civil War mostly flee to the North en masse but some using weapons left for them by the Union Army begin an armed guerrilla insurrection within the Confederacy to free more slaves known as the Freedmen's Rebellion. Many black, abolitionist and radical Union soldiers desert the army and join the insurgency as a way to continue the fight against slavery with the unofficial but tacit support of their commanders. The rebellion is strongest in regions that were previously occupied by the Union, have favourable terrain for a guerrilla war, were originally opposed to secession, have a large Black population and were affected by the Emancipation Proclamation such as in the Mississippi Delta, in Tidewater Virginia, in East and Middle Tennessee, in eastern Arkansas and in northern Alabama.
• Following the Arlington Armistice which ends the fighting, both the Union and Confederacy enter into negotiations for the potential reunification of the secessionist states with the Union, however, for the time being, the negotiations go nowhere because the Confederate states will settle for nothing but constitutional protection for slavery as proposed in the Crittenden Compromise which the majority of the politicians in both the Democratic Party and National Union Party reject completely. This issue becomes known as 'Reunion' or the 'Southern Question' and becomes a major political debate in both the North and South; whether or not to reunify the South with the Union and what the nature of that reunification would be.
• The US House of Representatives impeaches President Pendleton for treason against the United States for surrendering territory to the Confederacy and accusations of collaboration and secret meetings with Confederate delegates, the first impeachment of a President in American history, however, it fails to pass the Senate and Pendleton remains in office.
• The United Kingdom and United States together restart the African Slave Trade Patrol to clamp down on the Transatlantic Slave Trade.
• Piracy becomes somewhat more common on the Mississippi River, in the Caribbean and the North Atlantic because they are harboured by the Confederacy or part of the Freedmen's Rebellion. The Union responds by sending naval patrols along the Mississippi and along the Confederate-controlled coastline to dissuade and catch them, which heightens tensions with the Confederacy over naval jurisdictions.
• Following the end of the fighting and with gradual emancipation being implemented in many parts of the Union, a trade of northern slaves sold to the South opens up along the border states.
• Austria withdraws their support for Imperial Mexico and recalls their troops to help in the Austro-Prussian War, but the war is already strongly in Prussia's favour before they can arrive.
• Following the end of the Civil War, both Unionist and Confederate volunteers travel to the Dominican Republic to fight in the Restoration War.
• The Panic of 1866 never happens because while the Overend, Gurney and Company still collapses the continued validity of Confederate debt to fall back on and the higher demand in the shipbuilding industry keeps the market afloat. The reforms to the central banking system consequently are not implemented and the Pound Sterling has less international use.
• In Britain the Reform League never becomes popular and there is subsequently no Hyde Park Riots or public push for Voting Reform.
• The Union purchases Alaska from Russia in 1866 for the price of eight million dollars, the Democrat-dominated government hurrying the process along just ahead of the midterm elections in the same year in order to boost their support. They are even better able to afford it than otherwise because they do not need to spend additional funds on reconstructing the south. The purchase is very popular among the American public but it is nicknamed 'Cox's Folly' by its few detractors.
• The perceived instability in North America, the ongoing tensions between the Union and Confederacy and the poor relationship between the United States and European powers discourages European investment in the growing American economy. While there is still a lot of investment in the rapidly industrialising Union, it is notably less than otherwise. The Confederacy receives less European investment because of ethical concerns surrounding slavery but their free trade policies make up for this. Instead, Europeans focus more of their investments and later Imperial ambitions in Latin America, Asia and Africa. This results in the American rail network being smaller and growing slower than otherwise.
• Mexican President Benito Juarez, fearing an imminent Confederate attack, relocates his provisional capital from El Paso del Norte to the town of Ensenada in Baja California, chosen because of it's proximity to the United States and distance from French, Imperial and Confederate forces.

1867

• The Confederacy intervenes in the Second Franco-Mexican War on the side of the Imperials and France in exchange for diplomatic recognition and for economic concessions in the Mexican Empire. This intervention is only limited in its scope because the Confederacy needs soldiers elsewhere and because of Imperial successes on the battlefield - it is primarily concerned with anti-guerilla activities in the north and capturing border strongholds, which proves to be very effective. The Union supports the Mexican Republicans but their support is limited due to the distances involved.
• France, followed by Spain, Austria and the Mexican Empire recognise the independence of the Confederacy. This is strongly protested by the Union with an economic embargo but they do not act on it militarily like the previous administration threatened.
• Following recognition by the European powers, the Confederacy expands on it policies of Laissez-faire Free Trade overseas so it can expand its economy to foreign markets on the production of raw goods like cotton, but this does mean they are less able to compete with Europe industrially, contributing to the Souths slow industrialisation.
• The slave trade is not banned in the Spanish Empire around this time, allowing the Transatlantic trade to continue for the time being.
• The Confederacy begins a program to build up the weak Confederate States Navy, contracting the United Kingdom to help, which could theoretically challenge the United States Navy and to protect its trade routes in the future. The Confederacy negotiates the repurchase of the HMS Scorpion and the HMS Wivern which they had previously commissioned but were nationalised by the British. This is a costly endeavour, in part because the Confederacy lacks the industry or facilities to do it themselves, but it is decided to be worthwhile for their security and economy. This investment boosts the British shipbuilding industry greatly.
• The Confederacy does not invest in heavy industry because its Jacksonian government is largely opposed to it, believing rapid industrialisation to be destabilising and incompatible with slavery. Some industrialisation is however undertaken that is deemed to be necessary such as railways and ironworks, these factories are worked by both free white men and black slaves which weakens the social barriers between the two classes.
• President Fabre Geffrard of Haiti is overthrown in a coup d'etat by Major Sylvain Salnave. One of Salnave's first actions as the now elected President is to resume hostilities against Spain and aid the Dominican Republic in the Restoration War.
• In the Confederacy Fire-Eater Democrats advocate for a constitutional amendment that would repeal the ban on the importation of slaves from Article I Section 9 of the constitution, however, it does not have enough support from Congress or the President because it would undermine relations with the European states and make recognition harder, and due to the abundance of slaves in the Confederacy and the Union, there is no urgent economic need for such an amendment. The proposed amendment is primarily opposed by the eastern states and supported by the western states since the eastern states such as Virginia and North Carolina do not want to lose their privileged position in the slave trade to foreign competition. Despite the ban on the importation of slaves in the Confederacy, some slave traders, particularly from the western states such as Texas, attempt to skirt the regulations by smuggling slaves into the country from Cuba which has an overabundance of slaves that they are looking to get rid of. This trade is opposed and cracked down on by both the Union and Confederacy to varying degrees to success.
• Because there is no Panic of 1866 and because liberals are demoralised by the Confederate victory in the Civil War while conservatives are inspired and emboldened, the 1867 Reform Act is not passed in the United Kingdom which results in the Conservatives maintaining power and slowing democratisation in Britain.
• Despite the lack of support from the United States the Spanish are eventually ousted from the Dominican Republic and it wins its independence once again, years later than they otherwise would have. Jose Maria Cabral becomes the first President of the restored Republic, but this is opposed by the regional warlord Pedro Guillermo who demands that Buenaventura Baez be made president - to this Cabral relents and steps down to allow Baez to become President, despite having sided with the Spanish during the war.
• The combined forces of France, the Imperial Mexicans and the Confederacy are able to defeat the last Mexican Republican strongholds in the north, including the town of Ensenada which served as the Republican provisional capital, and the rule of Maximilian's Mexican Empire is solidified. President Benito Juarez is able to flee to the United States where he establishes a government in exile. Republican guerilla resistance continues in the northern and southern reaches of the country for long after the war officially ends.
• Some Confederate volunteers involved in the Franco-Mexican War refuse to leave once the war comes to an end and squat in regions in northern Mexico to claim the land as their own, on the advice and urging of former senator William M. Gwin and with the support of Napoleon III. The Mexican government attempts to oust them but they are unable to without violence. This incident causes tension to grow between Mexico and the Confederacy.
• France offers to purchase Luxembourg from the Netherlands, this is protested by North Germany who threatens war with France over the issue, triggering the Luxembourg Crisis. As a compromise, Luxembourg is demilitarised, the Fortress of Luxembourg dismantled and control of the Grand Duchy is given to Belgium, in exchange the Franco-Belgian border is adjusted to the pre-1815 status, giving France land in the Namur and Hainaut regions. Belgium is unhappy with this compromise as they lose land integral to their nation and they become both more internally unstable and more paranoid of foreign interference.
• The Confederacy holds its second-ever presidential elections. In this election, two political blocs or parties form; the Democrats and the Whigs. The Democrats (unrelated to the northern Democrats) are Southern Nationalists and descended from the wartime pro-Davis faction, they are pro-Centralisation and anti-Reunion, whose candidate of choice is former U.S. Vice President John C. Breckenridge, while the Whigs are descended from the wartime anti-Davis faction and are pro-Reunion and pro-States Rights, whose candidate of choice is former Confederate Vice President Alexander Stephens. Breckenridge narrowly wins and becomes the second Confederate President, officially taking the position the following year.
• The Imperial Mexican Railway, connecting Mexico City to Veracruz, is completed and inaugurated. Emperor Maximilian announces the establishment of the National railway plan which will establish a network of rails across the country including across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

1868

• Edward Smith-Stanley resigns as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for health reasons and is succeeded by Benjamin Disraeli on the recommendation of Queen Victoria. Because there was no passage of the 1867 Reform Act there is no looming election at this time to threaten his premiership.
• With the Second Franco-Mexican War over, the Imperial Mexican government requests that the French occupation forces leave the country, but this is ignored by the French government who are intent on dominating Mexico as a puppet regime. Instead, the French force the Mexicans to give preferential treatment to French companies in Mexico and lower tariffs on French goods. This boosts the French economy and raises support for Napoleon back home. France is able to do this because two-thirds of the Mexican economy is debted to France.
• The National Union Party does not dissolve but instead becomes more formalised into a proper organisation rather than a loose coalition. War Democrats aligned with the National Union Party mostly abandon their association with the Democratic Party while the Republican Party is effectively dissolved and merged into the organisational structure of the National Union Party. Their primary platform is the reunification of the South into the Union but they also for the most part support the policies of Protectionism, pro-Big Business, Industrialisation, Bullionism, Expansionism, pro-immigration, pro-racial integration and Secularism.
• In Spain the military led by General Juan Prim with the support of liberal political parties including the Liberal Union, the Progressive Party and the Democratic Party stage a coup d'état which overthrows the monarchy of Queen Isabella II to be replaced by a provisional government. This event is known as the Glorious Revolution or la Gloriosa.
• The government of Baez in the Dominican Republic is overthrown by a coup and he is replaced by Cabral. Shortly after, Cabral hosts an election which he and his government win. This coup reignites the factional split between the Liberal Blues who support Cabral and the Conservative Reds who support Baez.
• At the same time as the Glorious Revolution in Spain, an uprising breaks out in Puerto Rico called the Lares Revolt which seeks independence from Spain as the Republic of Puerto Rico. Shortly after this similar rebellions occur in Cuba called the Yara Revolt and the Camaguey Revolt also seeking independence and the abolition of slavery. The timely outbreaks of these rebellions are mostly coincidental to one another and the simultaneous Glorious Revolution. The revolt in Puerto Rico is quickly crushed while the revolts in Cuba grow into a larger rebellion and war for independence, although lacking as much support as it would otherwise, particularly from the tobacco planters, and also lacking as much support for annexationism and the United States.
• Prime Minister Disraeli pushes through the passage of the Reform Act of 1868, expanding democratic suffrage in the United Kingdom to include roughly 1.5 million people. All households in the boroughs are given the vote, but it is not expanded to lodgers, and the threshold for land ownership in the counties is reduced, but not by much. However, this reform is not nearly as extensive or bold as it otherwise would be and is much more slanted in the Tories' favour. The passage of the act mandates an election be soon held.
• Mexico reforms it's voting laws, an issue fought over bitterly between Liberals and Conservatives. In the end a compromise is reached wherein all those who pay a certain amount of tax are eligible to vote, including women, ultimately comprising of about 80% of the country's adult population. Later the same year Mexico holds it's first elections since the establishment of the Empire resulting in a narrow Conservative majority, but with the Liberals performing surprisingly well.
• In the US 1868 presidential election, the Democratic Party splits into two tickets, Pendleton is the nominee for the Democratic Party while a splinter faction supports Salmon P. Chase nicknamed the Unionist Democrats. As a result they lose by a landslide and the National Union Party with their nominee Abraham Lincoln win the election for his second non-consecutive term as president, along with his running mate Ulysses S. Grant as vice-president.

1869

• The 13th Amendment is ratified in the United States which abolishes all Slavery. Prior to this however, Missouri, West Virginia, Maryland and Delaware all abolished slavery on their own which left Kentucky as the only slave state in the Union at the time, and it was undergoing a process of gradual emancipation anyway.
• The Confederacy formalises the Confederate Secret Service Bureau by bringing together their many informal disparate elements. It acts as an intelligence and national security agency, primarily interested with protecting the Confederacy from Union subterfuge.
• The Vatican Council is held in Rome. Without the disruption of the Franco-Prussian War, the Council discusses and codifies far more than it otherwise would have. It runs over the course of four years from 1869 to 1873. The changes made by the Council are disputed by some within the church, mainly Germans, Hungarians, French and Americans who break off in a schism to form the Old Catholic Churches, a split which is larger than it otherwise would have been due to some controversial rulings by the Council.
• The UK holds a general election in 1869 which the Liberal Party wins despite the efforts of the Tories to slant the democratic franchise in their favour. William Gladstone becomes the Prime Minister of the UK, however with not as large of a parliamentary majority as otherwise.
• The 14th Amendment of the United States Constitution is ratified which grants citizenship to all those born in the United States including former slaves, guarantees equal protection of the law, due process of the law and protection of fundamental rights to all citizens including former slaves, adjusts the way congressional representatives are allocated to be based on population including former slaves, and disqualifying individuals who engaged in rebellion against the government from holding public office.
• Following the ratifications of the 13th and 14th Amendments, peaceful negotiations for Reunion between the Union and Confederacy break down completely.
• The Confederacy reorganises the Provost Guard to adjust for peacetime duties including acting as gendarmerie (despite their name) and as a secret police used to stamp out rebellion in covert operations, primarily interested in suppressing the Freedmen's Rebellion which both the Regular Military and Home Guard struggle to accomplish.
• A Red Party revolt breaks out in the Dominican Republic demanding the return of Baez to the presidency.

1870

• The new Spanish government, despite being staffed with mostly Republicans, offers the crown to Leopold Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen, an offer which he initially refuses, but then changes his mind and accepts. Despite the majority wanting to establish a Republic, the Cortes is fearful of a French reprisal and so strategically crown Leopold to secure an alliance with Prussia and possibly provoke war between France and Prussia. The French government denounces this and demands that he refuse the throne and that Prussia will never support a Hohenzollern candidate on the Spanish throne, while Wilhelm I of Prussia accepts to make Leopold refuse the throne, he refuses to promise never to support a future Spanish Hohenzollern. This diplomatic interaction is altered by Chancellor Otto von Bismarck to purposefully inflame tensions and is known as the Ems Dispatch. However, the situation does not escalate into war because the French public's anger is tempered by their victories in Mexico and the Luxembourg Crisis.
• The Gambia is ceded from the control of the United Kingdom to France in exchange for France renouncing their claim of the Mellacourie region in Sierra Leone.
• The Union issues an ultimatum to the Confederacy; to disband and submit to federal authority or face invasion, which they quickly reject. In response, the Union raises its army and invades the Confederacy. This is known as the War of 1870, the second phase of the American Civil War.
• The reignition of hostilities in the American Civil War triggers yet another Cotton Famine and Panic in the European textile industries, which had just started to recover from the previous shortages.
• Robert E. Lee, the General in Chief of the Confederate Army, dies of pneumonia while on campaign leading the Confederate Army. He is replaced as General in Chief by James Longstreet.
• In the Dominican Republic, Cabral is overthrown in a coup d'etat and Baez resumes his presidency. Baez establishes himself as an absolute dictator in his new role as President. This move receives the majority of support from across the country but is fiercely opposed by urban liberals and the Blue Party who ignite a rebellion against Baez, particularly in the south of the country around Santo Domingo, supported by the Haitians.
• The Democratic Party, despite signs of splintering within their ranks, has a resurgence in the 1870 midterm elections in reaction to the outbreak of war with the South which is growing more and more unpopular with the majority of the public.
• The Spanish Cortes decided to elect Amadeo Savoy, son of King Victor Emmanuel II of Italy, as the King of Spain. He takes the throne as King Amadeo I, swearing to uphold the constitution. The election of Amadeo secures an alliance between Italy and Spain. At the same time, General Juan Prim is assassinated, removing a powerful voice for the monarchy.

1871

• The United Kingdom, at the behest of Prime Minister Gladstone and as part of a secret agreement with France, formally recognises the independence of the Confederacy. Following this many other nations begin to recognise the Confederacy such as Belgium, Brazil, Portugal, Italy, the Netherlands, Argentina and others across Europe and the Americas. Russia, the Ottomans and now Prussia still however staunchly refuse to recognise Confederate independence and unilaterally support the Union, especially Russia. As a condition of recognition the Confederacy must permit the African Slave Patrol to intercept their ships, which they accept. The Union denounces this act but they are unable to do anything.
• France intervenes in the American Civil War on the side of the Confederacy on the justification that the Union is invading a sovereign state without a valid casus belli and with the promise of cheap cotton imports from the South. However, their support is limited due to ongoing tensions in Europe which distract them from fully committing, combined with the unpopularity of such as war among the French populace.
• The French and Confederate navies clash with the Unions at the Battle of Cape Hatteras, which the French and Confederates win decisively using their superior numbers and their newly deployed Ironclads. This battle ends Union naval dominance in the Civil War and breaks the Union blockade of the South.
• Russia threatens war with France over their intervention in the American Civil War, a move supported by Prussia. The British government backs France in their diplomatic standoff with Russia and Prussia. While this does not dissuade Russia, Prussia is successfully talked down in exchange for some concessions from the British and French including the island of Heligoland. With Prussia's neutrality established, the Russian response is tempered as they are now diplomatically isolated and do not wish to repeat the disaster of the Crimean War.
• In reaction to the Vatican Council, North Germany at the behest of Federal Chancellor Otto von Bismarck begins the Kulturkampf as a way to curb Roman Catholic influence in North Germany, encourage the spread of Lutheranism and Old Catholicism and secularise the state. While deemed as a necessity it alienates Catholic South Germans from North Germany which will make unification more difficult in the future.
• In reaction to the coronation of Amadeo as King of Spain, the Carlists begin plotting an uprising against him to install their own candidate Carlos VII to the Spanish throne, beginning a low-intensity rebellion in the countryside and the regions of Navarre, Catalonia and the Basque Country in particular.

1872

• Spain passes the Law of Free Wombs which frees the children of slaves, slaves older than 65 years and slaves serving in the army, and the Law of Repression and Punishment of the Slave Trade which clamps down on the Transatlantic trade - both of which are to come into effect in 1874.
• A new armistice is negotiated between France, the Confederacy and the Union mediated by the United Kingdom to end the war. The new armistice makes some minor border adjustments between the two nations, hands the disputed Public Land Strip to the Union and the Arizona Territory to the Confederacy, the latter to serve as a buffer between the Union and Imperial Mexico. The Union is also awarded reparations for the damages and for the purchase of the Arizona Territory paid for by both France and the Confederacy.
• The Third Carlist War begins in earnest when Carlos VII crosses the border from France into Navarre, in tandem with a mass uprising in many regions of Spain leading to heavy fighting across the country.
• Following the end of the American Civil War, the Dominican Republic under Baez opens negotiations with the Confederacy for the potential annexation of the country to become the 14th (12th) state of the Confederacy. The Dominicans are interested in annexation as a way to protect their country from foreign and domestic threats such as Haiti, Spain and the Blues, and to help stabilise the crippled Dominican economy. The Confederacy has been long interested in Caribbean expansionism and groups such as the Order of the Sons of Liberty (formerly the Knights of the Golden Circle) are openly in support of such a move, but others are more tentative because the Dominican Republic is majority Catholic and Hispanic. The Confederacy sends arms and volunteers to the Dominican Republic to help suppress the Blue rebellion and establish a presence in the country to pave the way for future annexation.
• President Benito Juarez, the exiled President of Mexico, dies from a heart attack. His death greatly delegitimises the Mexican republican government in exile.
• The United States ratifies the 15th Amendment which prohibits the government from denying the right to vote on account of race.
• The Democratic Party in the Union falls apart because of the loss of their main support base in the south, questions over what the party should become and being viewed as a pro-Confederate fifth column by many - the armistice with the Confederacy being the catalyst for the final breakup of the party as they lose their reputation as the pro-peace party, their last major talking point. It dissolves into multiple smaller parties giving the National Unionists virtually unrivaled dominance in government. These new parties include the Columbia Party, the Farmer's Alliance, the Independent Party and the Labor Party. The largest of these successor parties is the Columbia Party, made up of the former Bourbon Democrats and Tammany Hall Democrats, who carry on most of the same party platform as the Democrats did.
• Abraham Lincoln chooses not to run for president in the 1872 election, mostly due to stress and health issues, and returns to his home in Illinois to practice law. The National Union Party nominates Ulysses S. Grant, Lincoln's former vice-president, as their candidate, and they go on to win the election in a landslide, mostly due to the absence of a strong organised opposition.

1873

• Emperor Napoleon III of France dies due to his gallstones and compounding health problems. His 16 year old son Louis-Napoléon is crowned Emperor Napoleon IV, but France is partially governed by a regency until he reaches the age of majority of 21 in 1877. This regency is dominated by Empress Dowager Eugénie de Montijo and her conservative faction which implement authoritarian and clerical domestic policies and a belligerent anti-Prussian and anti-Italian foreign policy as well as an expansion of the French military as to better match Prussia's.
• France begins supporting the Carlists in Spain by helping arm them and cutting off the Savoyard government from loans from Paribas which incites economic turmoil in the country as they now struggle to repay their debts. In response the Savoyards raise taxes in order to help repay them, which only incites more people to turn to the Carlists. While the French are not overly supportive of a Carlist monarchy due to Carlos's claim on the French throne which they may attempt to press in the future, they are seen as preferable to a pro-Italian Savoyard monarchy because of their ultramontanist and reactionary stance. Negotiations between the French and Carlists are held on the possibility of Carlos renouncing his claim to the French throne.
• The emancipation measures enacted across the Spanish Empire, the rapid decline of the Spanish economy and diplomatic influence from the Confederacy triggers another rebellion to break out in Cuba, this time by the Planters and Slaveowners who seek to break away from the empire to preserve slavery. This puts them at odds with the abolitionist rebels who have been fighting for the past few years now, the two groups maintain a tense peace. This new Slaver rebellion has the support of the Confederacy, however, many within the Confederate government are mixed in their support as they do not wish to alienate Spain, but the majority support Cuba because of their opposition to European Imperialism, their desire to preserve slavery abroad and their ambitions of possible future annexation of Cuba. This also gains the attention of the United States which begins to support the Abolitionists even more than they were prior. Volunteer Unionist and Confederate soldiers travel to Cuba to join the rebels, however, their respective governments do not intervene, not wishing to provoke war with Spain.
• King Amadeo of Spain abdicates the throne due to the ongoing Carlist rebellion, the rebellion in Cuba, economic turmoil from the looming threat of a sovereign debt crisis and pressure from both France and his own government. In his place the Spanish Cortes elects Alfonso XII Bourbon-Anjou, the son of the former Queen Isabella II, to take the throne. The coronation of Alfonso pacifies the previously pro-Carlist French who now withdraw their support and grant access to Paribas once again, because Spain is now no longer aligned with Italy and because Alfonso is viewed as more legitimate by the French government. The survival of the monarchy in France dissuades many in government from attempting to establish a Republic.
• The Dominican Republic is annexed as a territory, not a state, into the Confederate States of America as 'Santo Domingo'. Buenaventra Baez becomes the governor of the territory and possesses a great deal of local autonomy. Slavery is legalised in the country, and black, mulatto and Haitian prisoners become enslaved property to be auctioned off. The Blue rebels fiercely resist the annexation and gain additional support from the public, escalating the conflict into the Second Dominican Restoration War (retroactively having begun in 1870), but the Confederacy sends more resources in response to crush the rebellion. Spain objects to the annexation but their current predicament prevents any countermeasures. Haiti begins supporting the Blue rebels even more than it already was in the hopes of ousting the Confederates from the region.
• The Vatican Council concludes, in the end it codifies the doctrines of Dei Filius which is the incipit, Pastor Aeternus which includes the doctrine of Papal Infallibility, the Marian Dogmas which involves belief in the Immaculate Conception of the Virgin Mary, Doctrina Administratio which overhauls and expands the churches administration, Non Expedit Errorum which bars all Catholics from participating in organisations considered heretical as laid out by the 1864 Syllabus of Errors and the earlier policy of Non Expedit, Rerum Novarum which supports the rights of workers but still in opposition to Socialism, and the Pian Mass which standardises Catholic rites and replaces the Tridentine Mass. The Vatican Council is one of the most important religious events of the modern era and completely overhauls the church and its relation with modernity, entrenching it as a deeply Reactionary organisation.
• The Panic of 1873 is avoided because of the reduced investment from Europeans in America, particularly in railroads and because Germany does not switch to the Gold standard at this time.
• The tenth anniversary of the Battle of Gettysburg.
• King Ludwig II of Bavaria approaches his government for funds with which to construct the Herrenchiemsee but he is rejected and so he dismisses his Liberal ministry and replaces them with a Conservative-dominated one, citing Non Expedit Errorum to justify this change. In response the Liberals attempt to declare the King to be mentally unfit to rule due to paranoia, however, this attempted self-coup fails due to lack of support and evidence to back their claim and the Liberals are discredited which results in a poor result for them in the Landtag election later that year. The new Conservative government, headed by the same Minister-President Otto von Bray-Steinburg, grants Ludwig the funds with which to complete his architectural projects.
• James Longstreet and the Whig faction wins the 1873 Confederate elections, riding off of his reputation as a war hero.
• The Public Land Strip is integrated into the state of Kansas so the Union can better stake their claim to it.

1874

• The Haitian government of Michel Domingue struggles to find creditors for a loan as part of it's 'Restoration' program to pay off the colossal national indemnity due to the fears of a Confederate invasion brought on by the annexation of Santo Domingo.
• The Ottoman Empire responds to the series of floods and droughts that strike Anatolia by taking additional loans to pay for relief for the victims. Because there is no Panic of 1873 the Ottoman Empire does not raise taxes to pay its debts, nor does it default on its debts at this time, and the Great Eastern Crisis is temporarily avoided.

1875

• The Union reopens trade with the Confederacy and normalises relations with the European powers as a way to revitalise their economy. This has the desired effect of causing rapid economic growth as the northern textile industry is restored.
• The Union passes the Coinage Act of 1875 which demonetises silver in favour of gold, which causes the value of silver to drop in reaction.
• Serb Rebels in Herzegovina supported by Montenegro and Serbia rise up in rebellion against the Ottoman Empire in reaction to ever worsening tax-farming levied by the local Beys. This rebellion does not trigger the start of a larger crisis however because the Ottoman economy is still afloat, albeit barely.
• The Cuban rebels successfully defeat the Spanish forces on the island and secure their independence as the Republic of Cuba. however the two main rebel factions of the war remain at odds over the issue of Slavery which threatens to tear the young nation apart. At present the new government both permits slavery but also has suffrage for all male non-slaves regardless of race.
• The Spanish government abolishes slavery in Puerto Rico, marking the end of the practice across all of the Spanish Empire.
• Because there is no Panic of 1873 or Great Eastern Crisis, Egypt does not need to urgently repay its debts and so does not sell its shares in the Suez Canal.
• The Confederacy formally abandons their claims on Kentucky and Missouri and dissolve their respective governments in exile as a way to improve their relations with the Union and pave the way for recognition. They alter their flag to reduce the number of stars from 13 to 11, but this is also unpopular because it is asymmetrical and the old flag is frequently flown regardless.
• The Confederacy invades Haiti in response to their support of the Dominican Blues, because of their racist Haitianist paranoia and in order to collect on the debts owed to them. The invaders quickly capture Port-au-Prince, however, resistance continues in the hinterlands of the country.
• In 1875 a popular Ultramontanist revolt breaks out in Orvieto after its bishop, Antonio Briganti, is arrested by the Italian government for sedition and the people storm the local government buildings demanding his freedom. The Papal State supports this rebellion in an attempt to reestablish power over the lands lost to it in 1860 to Italy, escalating the situation into war. France, at the behest of Empress Dowager Eugénie, intervenes on the side of the Papacy, sparking the Franco-Italian War, also known as the Fourth War of Italian Independence or the Roman War.
• France sees good early successes in its war against Italy, successfully defending Rome from attack and crossing the Alps into Italy, threatening the cities of Turin and Genoa.
• The Herzegovinian rebels are successfully crushed by the Ottoman army, ending the Herzegovina Uprising of 1875.

1876

• Because of the growing strain on the infrastructure of Washington D.C and its proximity to the Confederacy putting it in potential danger, the capital of the United States is relocated to Philadelphia, the 16th Amendment to the U.S Constitution is ratified as part of this process. The original District of Columbia is absorbed into Maryland while a new district is carved out of Pennsylvania and New Jersey around Philadelphia and straddling the Delaware River. The city undergoes a massive expansion and architectural revitalisation project to accommodate the government and the Centennial International Exhibition happening the same year. The formal relocation of the Capital and the Exhibition both occur to coincide with the 100th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.
• Khedive Isma'il Pasha of Egypt begins a series of new modernisation projects in his country such as railways connecting Cairo to Asyut, Luxor to Aswan and Khartoum, and continuing his expansion plans for 'New Cairo' and the newly founded city of Ismailia. These modernisation projects however cause Isma'il to rack up even more debt than otherwise.
• The Papal State claims rule over all of the territories it previously controlled in Italy, including the regions of Romagna, Umbria and Marche. This claim is recognised by France which contradicts their stance towards North Germany and they threaten intervention unless France backs down. France refuses on the grounds that those territories were illegally occupied by Italy in the first place.
• The United Kingdom and North Germany call for an international conference of the Great Powers and the Concert of Europe in order to resolve the ongoing Roman War. The conference is hosted in Brussels in Belgium. Belgium hosts the Brussels Conference as a diplomatic play to ensure their country's neutrality and safety in the ongoing Roman War as they fear that they may be invaded by the French or Prussians should the conflict escalate, however, the arrival of French and Prussian dignitaries angers the Belgian people who are still enraged by the Luxembourg Crisis and their handling of the 'Belgian Question' in the Austro-Prussian War, so the Conference triggers widespread protests and riots. At the conference Austria-Hungary unequivocally support France and the Papacy, but in response, Russia declares its support for Italy, which forces the Habsburgs to back down - this however fails to dissuade France. North Germany declares war against France, escalating the Roman War into the Franco-Prussian War. The failure of the Brussels Conference of 1876 marks the final failure and collapse of the Old Concert of Europe.
• Russia, following the failure of the Brussels Conference and feeling the time to be right, unilaterally declares the end of the Neutralisation of the Black Sea, in direct violation of the 1856 Treaty of Paris. Because of the ongoing Roman War, none of the Great Powers lift a finger to enforce it. It is even endorsed by Prussia and Otto von Bismarck.
• The Spanish government under Alfonso defeats the last stronghold of the Carlist rebels in Navarre and the Third Carlist War ends in a liberal victory. Carlos flees into exile in Switzerland. With the war over, Spain focuses on rebuilding its nation and decides to remain neutral in the ongoing Roman War.
• Italy formally lays claim to Nice and Savoy, the territories it gave to France in the 1860 Treaty of Turin in return for support for Italian unification. Italy justifies this by arguing that France has violated the treaty by opposing Italian unification and therefore it is null and void.
• Fearing for their safety, forced to pick between the protection of their northern territories within the North German Confederation or their southern territories outside of it and citing the Treaty of Prague in which they are obligated to aid North Germany in a defensive war, the Grand Duchy of Hesse-Darmstadt allies itself with North Germany. Shortly after the Grand Duchy of Baden also allies with North Germany because of their strong anti-French stance and because their ducal family is closely related to the royal family of Prussia. Bavaria and Württemberg meanwhile opt for neutrality in violation of the Treaty of Prague because they are, with the exception of the Bavarian ruled Palatinate, not directly threatened by the war, the fact North Germany is technically the aggressor, diplomatic pressure from Austria-Hungary, their distaste with the Kulturkampf, their good relations with France and their sympathy for the Papacy.
• The Independent Party and the Farmers' Alliance merge together into a single party called the Greenback Party. This new party, with the combined support of The Grange and the former New Departure Democrats, overtakes the Columbia Party to become the largest opposition to the National Unionists. The Greenback Party stands on the principles of Progressivism, Free Trade, anti-Big Business, Agrarianism, Monetary Reform, Land Reform, anti-Expansionism, Isolationism and anti-Immigration. The emergence of the Greenbacks to replace the Columbia Party as the second largest party ends the Third Party System and begins the Fourth.
• The United States ratifies the 17th Amendment, also known as the Blaine Amendment, in late 1876, which prohibits direct government aid to religious schools. This amendment is largely anti-Catholic and anti-Immigrant since most private religious schools are Catholic and most Catholics in the United States are Immigrants. The Amendment passes due to both Catholics aversion to engaging in certain political organisations due to the doctrine of Non Expedit Errorum and because of the stronger National Unionist presence in government pushing for secularisation.
• North Germany invades France, smashing their weaker and divided army in a stunning victory at the Battle of Strasbourg. During this counterattack the Prussians cross the border into the Palatinate in order to better attack the French forces, partially occupying the region. The French, in their desperation, pull soldiers away from Italy to defend against the incoming Germans, allowing the Italians to reverse the gains France made previously and capture Rome itself. Bavaria and Württemberg are forced to tolerate the invasion and soon after each ally themselves with North Germany and declare war against France.

1877

• Italian and French troops threaten the enter the region of Haute-Savoie in France so Switzerland occupies the region as stipulated in the 1815 Treaty of Paris in order to ensure the region's neutrality.
• Hesse-Darmstadt and Baden officially join the North German Confederation, which renames itself to the German Confederation, for the sake of protection from France, the reunification of the disparate territories of Hesse-Darmstadt, and because of familial ties between the royal families of Baden and Prussia.
• A military coup d'état in France by anti-War, Gallicanist and Liberal factions removes Eugenie from power and elevates Napoleon IV to full authority, nearing but not quite at the age of majority, although as a de facto puppet of the coup cadre for the time being.
• France seeks peace with Italy and Germany in 1877 to end the Roman War. France is forced to pay war reparations to both Germany and Italy, Italy annexes Nice and Savoy which it previously gave to France in 1860, and Germany annexes the region of Alsace-Lorraine. Switzerland withdraws from Haute-Savoie once hostilities conclude, handing the territory to Italy. The Papal State refuses to negotiate and is subsequently occupied and annexed by Italy, Pope Pius is however permitted to stay in the Vatican.
• The French people are outraged by the defeat in the Roman War and begin protesting against the new government, particularly in Paris which descends into mob rule. The French government in response sends soldiers against the revolutionaries which only escalates the conflict into a full-blown insurrection. The government in Versailles is overthrown by the revolutionaries and a new more democratic constitution is ratified, however, France remains a constitutional monarchy under Emperor Napoleon IV, now having just reached the age of majority, as a way to satisfy both radicals and conservatives. This event is called the French Revolution of 1877 or the March Revolution.
• As part of negotiations for future recognition, the Confederacy hosts referendums in each of its states for whether they desire to remain within the Confederacy or rejoin the Union. All eleven states vote to remain in the Confederacy, however, Tennessee's result is very narrow and leads to controversy.
• Germany using funds from war reparations and to encourage integration with the south establishes the German Mark as the new currency, backed solely by Gold instead of Silver. This, combined with the end of the Roman War, the expansion of the German Confederation and the introduction of capital from war reparations begins an economic boom in Germany called the Gründerzeit, but it also causes a devaluation of silver as it is gradually demonetised.
• The Union recognises the independence of the Confederacy and passes the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, also known as the Secession Amendment, to allow for this. The Amendment allows states to legally secede retroactively prior to 1861 but strictly prohibits it from then on. The Union, recognises Confederate control over all eleven secessionist states and the Indian Territory. They alter their flag to reduce the number of stars from 37 to 26 but this change is very unpopular and the new flag is nicknamed the 'Mutilated Banner'. The two nations do however continue to dispute West Virginia, the Arizona Territory and other border territories. The Unions recognition of the Confederacy causes all the other nations who previously had refused to recognise them change their stance and formally establish diplomatic relations with the South.

1878

• The German Confederation is reformed and renamed to the German Empire, with the King of Prussia Wilhelm I crowned as Emperor.
• Argentina annexes territory from the Gran Chaco region of Paraguay up to the Rio Verde. This causes Brazil to claim the rest of Gran Chaco for themselves.
• The United States ratifies the 19th Amendment of the Constitution, also known as the Cullom-Struble Amendment, which bans plural marriages and polygamy. This amendment largely targets Mormons who practice polygamy for religious reasons. The amendment is able to pass because of the National Unionist dominance in government and the greater centralisation of the federal government.
• The German Empire begins to bring the Kulturkampf to an end following the death of Pius IX and to further encourage integration with the south. Bismarck and Pope Leo XIII negotiate a compromise and in 1878 Germany passes the first Mitigation Laws.
• The huge economic cost of the Roman War and the Wars of German and Italian Unification on the nations of Europe, in particular France, Austria and Italy, over-investment in railroads in the United States and over-investment in the German Empire from the Gründerzeit, the devaluation of silver due to the Coinage Act of 1875 and the establishment of the Gold-Backed German Mark causing silver-backed currencies to drop in value, overproduction of cotton due to improved farming techniques better access to Indian cotton via the Suez Canal causing the price to steadily decline, fraud in the Confederate economy due to lack of oversight and a need to make up for losses in the cotton trade, and poor oversight and monetary policy in global central banks, the decline of entrepôt trade in Britain, all combined contribute to a global financial crisis called the Panic of 1878, the largest of it's kind in modern history. In Europe the trigger for the crisis is the sudden crash of the Vienna Stock Exchange due to the devaluation of silver and silver-backed currencies in comparison and in tandem with the reckless investing of the German market, which has knock-on effects in other countries, most notably Germany, abruptly ending the Gründerzeit. In the United States the trigger of the crisis is the sudden bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers investment bank which was heavily invested in both the railroad bubble and the cotton trade, and unable to stay afloat due to the lack of European investment, which causes a chain reaction of bank failures and a run on the banks. This Panic of 1878 marks the beginning of a period of global economic crisis and stagnation called the Great Depression, causing bank closures and high unemployment. In reaction to the Panic and Depression, governments around the world abandon policies of Free Trade and adopt Protectionist policies, which unforseeably only worsens the crisis.

1879

• The people of the Palatinate petition to join the German Empire while still being part of the Kingdom of Bavaria because of renewed German Nationalism, because the region is separated from the rest of Bavaria and because they wish to use the new German Mark instead of the comparatively worthless South German Gulden. The Bavarian government eventually acquiesces to pressure both internally and externally and the Palatinate joins the Empire.
• The Panic of 1878 causes a drop in material exports and capital imports in the Ottoman economy which it is dependent on financially. Unable to pay back their colossal public debt and struggling to find new creditors both domestically and overseas, the Ottoman Empire goes bankrupt and defaults on its sovereign debt. To help restabilise the economy the Ottomans raise taxes across the Empire and divert two-thirds of their revenue to debt repayment, however it is still not enough to satisfy all their creditors. The tax hike across the Empire triggers discontent and marks the start of the Great Eastern Crisis.
• As a consequence of the diplomatic fallout of the recent Roman War and Austro-Hungarian foreign minister Gyula Andrassy's aversion to Russia, the League of the Three Emperors is not formed in time for the Great Eastern Crisis and there is no strong consensus between Vienna, Berlin and St. Petersburg regarding the Crisis.
• Because of the Panic of 1878 and the Great Eastern Crisis the Egyptian government's colossal debt, accounting £175 million becomes untenable as they can no longer borrow any more funds. Khedive Isma'il, in an effort to raise funds, sells his countries shares in the Suez Canal to the British.
• The explorer Henry Morton Stanley, working under the orders of King Leopold II of Belgium, travels to the Congo with the goal of establishing a colony for Leopold and the International Association of the Congo. Because of the poor timing of the Panic of 1878, the French do not dispatch Pierre Savorgnan de Brazza on his expedition to the Congo, and so Stanley is unchallenged in his colonial project for the time being.

1880

• The state government of Maryland relocates its capital from Annapolis to Washington because of its better facilities for a government to operate and its symbolism as the former capital of the nation.
• The Khedivate of Egypt goes bankrupt and defaults on its colossal sovereign debt, unable to repay it. In response the European powers establish the Public Debt Commission to oversee Egypts finances and supervise the repayment of their debts, primarily under the joint control of the United Kingdom and France but also nominally including influence from Austria-Hungary, Germany, Russia and Italy.
• The Kingdom of Württemberg, due to it's collapsing economy and the looming threat of revolution, joins the German Empire.

1881

• Emperor Napoleon IV of France marries Princess Beatrice of the United Kingdom, the youngest daughter of Queen Victoria, and she is subsequently crowned as Empress Beatrice of France. While their wedding is criticised as an indulgent waste of money at a time of economic hardship, it is also considered a welcome distraction from those hardships and provides stability and certainty for the future of France and it's monarchy.
• Henry Morton Stanley establishes the trading post of Leopoldville on the southern bank of the Congo River.

 

[Onkel Willie]

It will be interesting to see how this differs from my own ongoing TL on the same subject.

 

[Cryptic]

Maybe the CSA will reach out to Brazil, Cuba, Paraguay, Yucatan Mexico and other areas where planter economies and the uhmm..... " traditional social hierarchy" is respected and honored.

I just cant see the CSA leaving western and middle TN in the union. Maybe demand a referendum with the understood outcome that east TN goes union and the bulk goes CSA?

 

[vonstraya]

Maybe the CSA will reach out to Brazil, Cuba, Paraguay, Yucatan Mexico and other areas where planter economies and the uhmm..... " traditional social hierarchy" is respected and honored.

I just cant see the CSA leaving western and middle TN in the union. Maybe demand a referendum with the understood outcome that east TN goes union and the bulk goes CSA?

They definitely will be reaching out to these fellow traditionalist states. They already have good relations with Imperial Mexico and they have plans regarding Cuba and Haiti. Their relationship with Brazil however is more complicated though, since Emperor Pedro II is very liberal minded. We haven't gotten up to the implementation of the Golden Circle part of the timeline just yet, that's still a couple of decades away.

The CSA certainly isn't happy about losing Tennessee and in this timeline they fight to reclaim it multiple times, but the Union isn't exactly asking nicely and they have more guns.

 

[PGSBHurricane]

They definitely will be reaching out to these fellow traditionalist states. They already have good relations with Imperial Mexico and they have plans regarding Cuba and Haiti. Their relationship with Brazil however is more complicated though, since Emperor Pedro II is very liberal minded. We haven't gotten up to the implementation of the Golden Circle part of the timeline just yet, that's still a couple of decades away.

The CSA certainly isn't happy about losing Tennessee and in this timeline they fight to reclaim it multiple times, but the Union isn't exactly asking nicely and they have more guns.

I think Tennessee is a conundrum in and of itself. Eastern Tennessee was pro-Union but so was the area along the Tennessee River in the Western part of the state. It was the Nashville area that was the swing region IOTL and largely made the difference between rejecting secession early in 1861 and then approving it later that year. So it would definitely be a battleground between the Union and CSA anyway.

 

[Cryptic]

Martinique might also be CSA cultural exchange focus.

Historically, the island was very uhmm..... "traditional" in regards to the agricultural labor and the most defiant French possession regarding France's emancipation order. As a result full, or de facto full slavery continued to exist on the island following emancipation. Martinique's defiance was to the extent that they also continued to import new slaves from Africa after the practice was internationally banned.

 

[vonstraya]

I've added a bunch of new content to the most recent version of the timeline covering the Roman War and the aftermath going up to 1879. Didn't think it was worthwhile to make a whole new post so I've just tacked it on to the last one. Thoughts?

 

[Pax_Nihil]

I've added a bunch of new content to the most recent version of the timeline covering the Roman War and the aftermath going up to 1879. Didn't think it was worthwhile to make a whole new post so I've just tacked it on to the last one. Thoughts?

Everything I've read so far is fucking awesome and I can't wait for more

 

[JanWellem]

In accordance with the Catholic Churches policy of Non Expedit Errorum, Bavaria cracks down on Liberal and Socialist organisations such as the German People's Party.

I very much doubt that the liberal Bavarian government of Adolph von Pfretzschner (Bavaria had a whole succession of liberal governments during the reign of Ludwig II) would crack down on Socialist let alone Liberal organisations and parties. It was this very reason why Bismarck IOTL forced his resignation.

They alter their flag to reduce the number of stars from 13 to 11, but this is also unpopular because it is asymmetrical.

The CSA should ditch the Stainless Banner or Blood-Stained Banner, which IMO were rather poor flag designs anyway, and return to the Stars and Bars flag they had until 1863.

 

[vonstraya]

I very much doubt that the liberal Bavarian government of Adolph von Pfretzschner (Bavaria had a whole succession of liberal governments during the reign of Ludwig II) would crack down on Socialist let alone Liberal organisations and parties. It was this very reason why Bismarck IOTL forced his resignation.

Von Pfretzschner isn't the Minister-President of Bavaria in this timeline since Bavaria isn't part of the German Empire as of 1873 resulting in a different government, instead Otto von Bray-Steinburg holds the position since he never resigned in 1871 in reaction to the Kulturkampf.

However, I really do need to work out more of the details on the internal politics of Bavaria in the aftermath of this alternate Vatican Council since it would inevitably lead to a clash between the Liberal and Catholic factions in the government and state. I kinda just handwaved it before as a wishy-washy *crackdown*. What are your thoughts on how I could improve?

The CSA should ditch the Stainless Banner or Blood-Stained Banner, which IMO were rather poor flag designs anyway, and return to the Stars and Bars flag they had until 1863.

I think the reasoning behind the change is valid enough and I don't see much reason why in universe they'd change it back. Plus the whole timeline is named after the flag soooooo 🤷‍♂️

 

[JanWellem]

Von Pfretzschner isn't the Minister-President of Bavaria in this timeline since Bavaria isn't part of the German Empire as of 1873 resulting in a different government, instead Otto von Bray-Steinburg holds the position since he never resigned in 1871 in reaction to the Kulturkampf.

However, I really do need to work out more of the details on the internal politics of Bavaria in the aftermath of this alternate Vatican Council since it would inevitably lead to a clash between the Liberal and Catholic factions in the government and state. I kinda just handwaved it before as a wishy-washy *crackdown*. What are your thoughts on how I could improve?

Even under Otto von Bray-Steinburg most of the ministers were Liberals and the position as President of the Council in Bavaria was more of a primus inter pares than that of an all powerful head of government like the Chancellor of Prussia, so I might see Bavaria banning Socialists, but definately not Liberals, who were supported by the rising bourgeois class.

 

[Zireael]

I've added a bunch of new content to the most recent version of the timeline covering the Roman War and the aftermath going up to 1879. Didn't think it was worthwhile to make a whole new post so I've just tacked it on to the last one. Thoughts?

Might just be me but that seems to have made the post veeery long and the bullet points just blur together. Sub-headings would be lovely to break things up a bit.

 

[vonstraya]

Might just be me but that seems to have made the post veeery long and the bullet points just blur together. Sub-headings would be lovely to break things up a bit.

Fair enough. I do need to work on presentation but ATM I'm more focused on getting the content straight. But I'll add some sub headings to break things up a bit now.