Anno Obumbratio: A 16th Century Alternate History
- Thread starter DrakeRlugia
- Start date
Well that was interesting! And we see a reverse Pavia here
Also, with the new pope taking the name Pius III, I assume that otl’s Pius III is wiped from the papal list?
Well, it seems that the Empress won’t be spending much time in Spain here. I’m sure that’ll do wonders for that relationship
Also, with the new pope taking the name Pius III, I assume that otl’s Pius III is wiped from the papal list?
Great twist!
Just a thought: IOTL one of the conditions for Francis' release from captivity was to be replaced by his sons. Charles can't do it (he lost his son and his daughter is just born). So probably his only option would be to order Ferdinand to replace him as a prisoner.
It would be "interesting" for some reasons: the reaction of the Spanish court and nobility over losing their prince to the French due to the "incompetence" of Charles and his disregard for the Spanish government; the fact that Francis could impose as a condition for Ferdinand's release that he should be married to a French princess; also, the mess that would become later Charles and Ferdinand' "brotherly relationship".
Just a thought: IOTL one of the conditions for Francis' release from captivity was to be replaced by his sons. Charles can't do it (he lost his son and his daughter is just born). So probably his only option would be to order Ferdinand to replace him as a prisoner.
It would be "interesting" for some reasons: the reaction of the Spanish court and nobility over losing their prince to the French due to the "incompetence" of Charles and his disregard for the Spanish government; the fact that Francis could impose as a condition for Ferdinand's release that he should be married to a French princess; also, the mess that would become later Charles and Ferdinand' "brotherly relationship".
That would be a excellent reason for Spain to declare that Ferdinand is the next king and give Charles the finger at the same time. Their loathed emperor and his hated empress is gonna demand a huge ransom for a conflict Spain wants nothing to do with and is gonna take their Prince and wed him to some French girl? I would blow my top if I was Spain and declare independence and demand that Isabella of Portugal became the next queen, because enough of this imperial nonsense.
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mickeymouse
Donor
Francis finally got another win! I love to see it. I really enjoyed the reverse Pavia—it was so well-executed! I’m excited to see what comes next for France and the Empire; and to see how this is perceived in Spain. 
Poor Mary. I have so much pity for her. To lose your child in such a manner is heartbreaking, even more so since she’d been separated from him for so long. I can’t blame her at all for reacting this way, or for the growing distaste towards her husband’s other dominion. I hope that she’ll be able to cope with the loss somehow, eventually.
Also, what a splendid choice for an alternate Pope. Pius certainly has his work cut out for him.
Poor Mary. I have so much pity for her. To lose your child in such a manner is heartbreaking, even more so since she’d been separated from him for so long. I can’t blame her at all for reacting this way, or for the growing distaste towards her husband’s other dominion. I hope that she’ll be able to cope with the loss somehow, eventually.
Also, what a splendid choice for an alternate Pope.
Pius certainly has his work cut out for him.
Yes, I'm thinking likely that he will press to see his claims to Milan recognized. That will be his first concern. Unsure if he can convince the King of Navarre to give up his claims in Upper Navarre, but given that the King is dependent on France, he will likely have to do as Francis says; after all, regaining Upper Navarre for the the Navarrese really does Francis no favors, and to be fair that portion of the Old Kingdom of Navarre is utterly indefensible against the Spanish compared to their holdings north of the Pyrenees. Navarre is better to reform in their northern holdings and hope for the best. Plus, it's a good bargaining chip for the French.
It's likely that one of Charles' daughters (he has two at this point: Isabella, born in 1521, not mentioned in the story thus far and the recently born Mary in 1522) will be given to marriage to Francis, the Dauphin. She'll likely be sent to France and reared there, though how Mary will take to the news of losing another child remains to be seen.
I do not foresee her going back at all. Charles certainly will, but she'll likely stay in the Low Countries.
Honestly, when I was looking for Papal names, I seem to have completely forgotten about Pius III (no surprise, given his short tenure). Regardless, he came before our POD, so the new Pope will need to be Pius IV. I'll fix that.
I think it's incredibly likely that securing Milan will be high on Francis' list of demands.
That is certainly an interesting idea, and one that could be suggested. Charles only has his own daughters at this point, and while one will likely be betrothed to the Dauphin and sent to France to be raised, a princess isn't the same sort of hostage as a prince. I think the main issue is that Ferdinand is safe and sound in Spain, so while Ferdinand could certainly be a replacement hostage, Charles is really in position to demand that Ferdinand take his place, and the Spanish certainly aren't going to happy with that idea. Given how Charles is just now finding peace with his Spanish subjects, it may be better to not antagonize them any further.
The Spanish will already be smarting that their king has gotten captured, and that the ransom will likely be paid with by Spanish taxes and gold... but it is something interesting to ponder. A French marriage could be suggested as well.
Yes, I think any swap for the emperor for Ferdinand would provoke massive trouble in Spain; trouble he can ill afford at this point. The Spanish will already be looking at a likely ransom paid by them, not to mention part of the Imperial forces that were vanquished at Lodi included Spanish troops that had been hitherto garrisoning the Kingdom of Naples. If Charles asks his brother to take his place, that is only adding further trouble; he would likely have to go to Spain and spend several years there to calm things if he sent his brother away, but even so it'd be very hard to undo the problems and trouble he's already encountered.
Plus, as I mentioned above, there's really no way for Charles to force Ferdinand to take his place, and the Spanish council surely won't want him to do so. While Charles has his daughters who could feasibly succeed him in Spain, there's no doubt that until he has a son Ferdinand will be seen as his potential heir.
I don't think the suggestion of a French marriage is too farfetched, given that royal weddings were often used for patching up relations, but it would certainly be unpopular. One of Charles' daughters is likely already destined for the Dauphin, which is sacrifice enough. Why should their prince be asked to make such a marriage? And with Claude's death, there are other avenues as well (such as Francis marrying Charles' youngest sister, Catherine perhaps).
Things will definitely be troublesome going forward. I expect there will be more trouble in Spain, depending on how Charles handles the situation. It seems likely that war will flare up sooner rather than later.Francis finally got another win! I love to see it. I really enjoyed the reverse Pavia—it was so well-executed! I’m excited to see what comes next for France and the Empire; and to see how this is perceived in Spain.
Poor Mary. I have so much pity for her. To lose your child in such a manner is heartbreaking, even more so since she’d been separated from him for so long. I can’t blame her at all for reacting this way, or for the growing distaste towards her husband’s other dominion. I hope that she’ll be able to cope with the loss somehow, eventually.
Also, what a splendid choice for an alternate Pope.
Mary has a very sad situation. I suppose to some (especially in Spain) she's an unlikable figure, but she's also had quite a few tragedies in her married life at this point. She will find a way to cope, and with Charles being captured, this will put her in a position of authority in his Burgundian dominions alongside Margaret of Austria. Here's hoping she can steer things and negotiate her husband's release ASAP.
He most certainly does!
mickeymouse
Donor
Oh, I’m dreading seeing her reaction. In a good way, because I’m excited to see how you handle it, but I feel so bad for her that she’ll be separated from yet another child.
Can’t wait to see where else this goes!
I want Charles trying to force Ferdinand to take his place as hostage so badly. The spanish courtes will flip shit completely at that point.
I think it would be pretty funny, if Bourbon gets pushed too far by Francis and bounces to join the Empire and oh so happens to break Charles out and bring him with. It would be an intriguing turn, Bourbon did switch sides otl as well, prevents any more immediate spanish problems, and makes poor mary much happier.
No reason for that. Francis had to give his sons as hostages as he had asked to be released before paying his ransom. Charles instead can and likely will pay his ransom soon and then would have no reason for giving any hostage to Francis.
Yes... and would likely undo all the ground work laid by the Treaty of Segovia, too. Regardless, I think whatever the situation (Charles attempting to send Ferdinand in his place, or paying a massive ransom), the Castilian Cortes will be in a situation to benefit from it. It will really weaken Charles' position further.
Bourbon is certainly a wild card here. His relations have soured with Francis considerably since 1515, and while his son with Suzanne, the Count of Clermont is alive and well, the king still sees Bourbon's vast wealth as something that could be his own, especially as Bourbon is steward of his son's portion of the inheritance that he's received from his mother.
I debated having matters come to head here, with Louise filing a lawsuit on the late Duchess of Bourbon's estates regardless (the argument would've been more limited than OTL, but still based on the ancienne coutume of proximity of blood... basically a super flimsy excuse, already quite flimsy IOTL for Louise and the crown to lay claim to a portion of the Bourbon inheritance despite her having a clear male heir, though likely more limited than IOTL) but I held off as I couldn't make it flow within the narrative. One idea was not only Louise offering herself as a bride to the Constable, but also a second idea of Bourbon giving up certain lands to Francis; in exchange, the little Count of Clermont would've been given one of Francis' daughters in marriage, with whatever lands Bourbon gave up to the crown being returned to the Bourbons as her dowry... sort of a 'rent-a-territory' settlement, but I couldn't make either idea work to my satisfaction.
But that doesn't mean that Bourbon can't be pushed to his limit down the line. Regardless... I think a prison break might be untenable, if only because the poor emperor is being held at the old castle of Rene of Anjou in Maine. He's quite far from Spain and from the Low Countries. I suppose he could attempt an escape by boat, but such plans usually require a lot of planning and typically fall awry.
I have no clue what Charles V demanded from Francis, before substituting his sons, but I know the ransom for his sons was set at 1.2 million crowns. So, let's say somewhere around there, likely. Not a sum to sniff at. Charles' annual revenue was around 2.8 million (encompassing his whole territories), but over thirty percent of that went to military expenses (the Italian campaign in 1524-1525 cost around 1 million ducats, for instance). He's also got debts from the banking houses, such as the Fuggers, as well as in the Low Countries (his debts in the Low Countries from the provincial renten had already blown past 1 million ducats in 1520). Loans carried very high interest rates too, the Fugger loans had a yearly interest rate of about ten percent.
Another reason Francis was able to demand the swap is that he argued that only he as the king could levy the appropriate taxes to pay for said ransom and they couldn't be levied in his absence. Regular taxes in Charles' dominions will continue to get collected regardless of him being imprisoned, as he's appointed people to handle his various domains, but a ransom would likely require an extraordinary grant, as regular revenue will not be able to cover such an expense on top of other scheduled expenses. He'd either have to seek it from the Low Countries, Spain, or some combination of two, which means wrangling with the Great Council and the Cortes.
At least in Spain, the Cortes of Castile and Aragon often couldn't be called without the king doing so or the king being present at such a meeting. This wasn't a hard and fast rule, as Charles already sent the Cardinal of Tortosa and Ferdinand to Valencia IATL, and homage was rendered, albeit begrudgingly, and they weren't able to get Charles V any funds from it. Charles V always intended to name Ferdinand as his Viceroy once things cooled, and I imagine the appointment was likely made in ~1522-23, several years before he was captured.
Ferdinand would likely be empowered to call the Cortes in Charles' name and get the required funds, it would probably just be something that's recognized as extrajudicial in that moment in time: not exactly legal or sanctioned when Ferdinand does it, but Charles can ratify it after the fact, recognizing it as a unique situation that required a unique settlement. It will set a precedent that the king doesn't explicitly have to be present, but Charles isn't in any position to argue with this. Same thing in the Low Countries; I think the empress and his aunt would be able to secure any needed extraordinary grants, as they were formally given authority at Worms in ~1521.
The question is will the courtes agree to Ferdinand if he makes that call or will this further inflame the "we want Ferdinand as King crowd"?
Louise here can not try anything: Suzanne’s son is without doubt her only legal heir and neither she or Francis can do anything about it as she has no way to claim anything here.
I think who Francis‘ original ransom was lower than the one of his sons so something around 900000 crowns or a million… Charles would have no problem to secure them between Spain, Low Countries and the Fuggers… the last two would pay for freeing Charles and Spain also would pay, if not for Charles at least for preventing Ferdinand to be sent as replacement hostage
I think that's a good question, but I think that they would, given the extraordinary circumstance. They can make the raising of the funds contingent on certain stipulations, and the emperor would be obliged to accept it... of course, he could always go back on his word, as he has before, but the situation is very volatile in Spain now, and the loss at Lodi will not help. It's certainly a position they could exploit to their benefit.
I think even at this point, they could possibly even ask that Ferdinand be recognized as Charles' heir and named Prince of Asturias. It would not be ideal for the emperor, but given the alternatives... the money will need to be raised, and that may mean making some decisions that he wouldn't make otherwise.
Charles has been married at this point (1526) for almost a decade, and has no male heir outside his brother. Him and the empress are still young and can have many more children, but Charles and Mary aren't exactly well liked in Spain, and future children are likely to be born outside of Spain and raised in the Low Countries. Some of his councilors might see it more prudent to do whatever he can to shore up his position in Spain, even if that means conceding that he will only be King of Spain for his lifetime.
Either way, it will certainly be interesting for Charles and Ferdinand's relationship. Ferdinand's endured a lot of hardship for his brother so far.
To be fair, her claim IOTL really had no legal ground either. Suzanne herself was allowed to inherit the Bourbon domains by a letters patent, and her closest kin would've been her husband regardless of them having any children, which I believe was part of their marriage agreement, IIRC. Louise really had no valid claim to the Bourbon estates, proximity of blood or otherwise. It was merely an excuse to seize those lands for the crown. Francis had the lands confiscated before the courts even made a ruling. The plan was a more "limited" claim here, as she can't claim the entire inheritance in this situation, but she could make a claim to a piece of it. One can make all the claims they want, they simply have to be backed up, and Francis wouldn't mind knocking Bourbon down a peg, as one of the last great landed magnates in France. It's likely their relationship will continue to be sour, regardless.
Yes, I don't think he'd have an issue getting the money at all. He has many resources available to him, it's just going to be another extraordinary expense on top of others. He's better off getting extraordinary grants from the Low Countries and Spain and making whatever concessions he has too (especially in Spain) rather than seeking out the bankers. They are an option too, of course, but it'll merely add to the already enormous pile of debt.
Honestly Mary isn't exactly a spring chicken anymore. She's already 30 and otl she was done having children at this point. Ofc, the latter part can be butterflied, but time is running out for Charles and Mary to have heirs. That being said, they only really need one son, if Spain goes to Ferdinand. Austria and Burgundy will be easier to rule together than the Spanish realms and Burgundy was otl, so it should be managable for one son to keep control of the imperial possessions
Her OTL claim could have some validity as she argued who Suzanne’s inheritance of her father’s lands opened the way for them to be inherited by other females and Louise’s mother was sister of Suzanne’s father. She had to use blood proximity as her mother was not the elder sister and was neither the oldest to have left heirs (that was the mother of Mary of Burgundy), but here she can not claim anything as Suzanne’s son is her only legal heir
Exactly so. The door isn't closed to them having further children, but ten years in and only two daughters (and a dead son) does not exactly inspire confidence. Mary also did not enjoy the greatest health, and the burdens she bares here may make such health problems worse rather than better. It may be to the emperor's benefit to seek some accommodation in Spain to the benefit of Ferdinand, and who's to say that one of Charles' daughters might not marry Ferdinand's eventual son and heir, assuming Ferdinand is make heir of Spain?
Regardless of the validity, Francis still chose to seize the lands IOTL before the courts ever rendered their decision. To me, that speaks volumes about the legal ground that Louise of Savoy's argument stood upon. People can make all the claims they wish until they're blue in the face if they're willing to put the resources into arguing it. Even with a son, the Duke of Bourbon's inheritance will continue to be looked upon by crown as something potentially ripe for the picking, especially if the relationship between the crown and duke continues to sour.
And given Mary has just sworn hatred towards Spain, I can't see her sending another son off to the peninsula ever.
Honestly that would do wonders for Spain, absorbing the wealth of the New World without having to deal with further Italian wars nor the eventual Dutch rebellion or conflicts with England over that means they can go the Portugal route of staying aloof over continental matters and focus both inwards as well in their colonial empire.