AHD: Georgian SSR secedes from the Soviet Union in the 1940s under Stalin

During Stalin's rule, Georgia experienced significant industrialization and modernization. It is for this reason that Georgia is often regarded as one the wealthiest Soviet republics. With Georgia being the home country of Stalin, many Georgians felt a sense of patriotism and cultural pride regarding his rule. There is no denying that Stalin's Georgian heritage made him a figure of national pride for some Georgians.

Stalin, who was himself Georgian by birth, often showed favoritism to his home-country regarding economic development. However, Stalin held a reputation of a ruthless ruler, known for suppressing dissent and maintaining centralized authority in the Georgian Republic. The oppressive policies of Stalin's regime, particularly during the Great Purge of the 1930s, exacerbated tensions between Georgia and Stalin, mostly due to his policies aimed at Russification and centralization. Furthermore, Stalin's policies of collectivization and industrialization led to significant social and economic upheaval in Georgia.

As Stalin becomes more oppressive and intolerant, former Georgian nationalists that used to be in favor of Stalin would be forced to reckon with his oppressive treatment of his own people. Many Georgians will begin to view Stalin rather as just another merciless rule and not simply relying on his heritage as a saving grace in the federation.

Moreso, his controversial policies and actions would make way for a new movement centered around a dream of an independent Georgia. Also considering the fact that Article 17 of the 1936 Soviet Constitution allows Union Republics the right freely to secede from the USSR, it would definitely boost the fight for freedom.

Memories of the short-lived Democratic Republic of Georgia would foster this need for liberation. There might be a strong remembrance for such a time-period and a strong cultural insurrection grounded in the belief of an independent state. There was no shortage of thinkers, rebels, and intellectuals who not only dreamt of but were willing to fight for an independent Georgia.

What comes to mind is the 1924 August Revolution, an early insurrection that was aimed at restoring the independence of Georgia from the Soviet Union. The insurrection was unsuccessful, with thousands of civilians, families, and military figures executed and/or exiled. An insurrection similar to that one would take place, although it would have to be much more organized.

Stalin, himself a Georgian, would be fiercely committed to maintaining control over the Soviet empire, and would first order a crackdown on the independence movement, stopping at nothing to silence those whether it be by murder, imprisonment, or exile. The independence movement might also attract other republics to join in, including Armenia and Azerbaijan, who also have history with the Red Army invasion of the 1920s.

In the case of time period, with Stalin being too busy handling the Winter War (1939-1940) with Finland and the WWII (1939-1945 ) in the 1940s, Georgian nationalists might seize this opportunity to intensify their independence movement, calculating that the Soviet military's focus on the Finnish and Germans front could temporarily weaken its grip on other Soviet republics, including Georgia.

If the aftermath and casualties for both wars were more detrimental than they were, with a decrease in economy, loss of military morale, and other sources of wealth, Georgian rebels and independence leaders would use Stalin's focus on other conflicts to enact riots, uprisings, and even small guerilla attacks.

The Georgians would launch a guerrilla resistance against the already weakened Soviet forces, drawing on their history of defiance and their intimate knowledge of the rugged Georgian terrain. Despite an attempt by other Soviet figures to make peace, Georgians were steadfast in their beliefs. Talks would soon break down, and abusive measures would be rife on both sides. No doubt the casualties will be immense. Stalin, not being one to cajole, would take a more authoritarian approach, that would also have an opposite effect, pulling Georgians further and further away from his grip.

Faced with mounting domestic unrest and struggling to keep other republics from rebelling in a similar fashion, Stalin along with the rest of the Soviet leadership eventually relented. In a historic compromise brokered by neutral third-party mediators, the USSR reluctantly agreed to recognize Georgia's independence in exchange for guarantees of non-aggression.

Georgia being the first country to leave the Soviet Union would probably send shockwaves, not only throughout the USSR, but throughout the entirety of Europe. With Stalin losing control over Georgia, his country of origin would be a major blow to his authoritarianism and control. The successful secession of Georgia would embolden other nationalist movements within the USSR, sparking a wave of independence movements that ultimately contributed to the collapse of the Soviet empire. Caucasian Republics such as Armenia Azerbaijan would also gain their independence, yet an alliance between all three might be a far stretch considering the history the nations have with each other.

In this alternate history, the secession of Georgia in the 1940s serves as a pivotal moment in the unraveling of the Soviet Union and the dawn of a new era of independence and self-determination for the peoples of the Caucasus and beyond.
 
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Would there be a moment in WWII where the Soviet military is too preoccupied with the German invasion to enforce internal stability?
 
Would there be a moment in WWII where the Soviet military is too preoccupied with the German invasion to enforce internal stability?
I don't think so. He invaded and occupied northern Iran with a huge force during this period and also didn't withdraw any units from the Transbaikal Front even after it became clear Japan wasn't going to try anything.
 
The closest thing to such a movement in OTL would be the reaction to destalinisation by Georgian anti-revisionists and nationalists in 1956. As you say Stalin was a figure of national prestige and the sudden demonisation of him was taken by many to be slander and/or an insult to the Georgian people. The nationalist demands appear to have come after the anti-revisionist ones and the former may have been taking advantage of the latter but nonetheless it seems unlikely such a movement would spring up organically against Stalin.
 
With Stalin and Beria the had the top two men in the USSR. In those circumstances Georgians who wanted to secede would be bound for a mental asylum.
 
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