AHC/WI: All Latin American independence movements are indigenous

[Zuvarq]

How could every single independence movement in mainland Latin America be headed by the "indios"? There can be criollo or mestizo rebellions, but they must fail. Successful movements must be native.

What would the result be? Which tribes would prevail in which regions? Which regions have too many tribes, and would fall apart? Where do exiled criollos go? What do mestizos do? Does Catholicism or traditional religion prevail?

 

[juanml82]

For any independentist or revolutionary movement of such scale, you need the cooperation between, at least, the lower and middle classes. Part of the upper classes would certainly help as well.
Since the middle and upper classes were mostly formed by creoles or mestizos, I'd say you can't have a successful independence movement composed entirely by indians.

 

[Thoresby]

Most of Latin America remains Spanish until this day. Argentina and Uruguay are majority creole and Mexico and Columbia are majority mestizo and there is no way you're going to see a marginalised lower class group overthrowing the majority population. Not sure about the demographics of Ecuador, Peru and Paraguay but I'm doubtful. Bolivia and the Central American states are really the only possibilities from what I can see.

 

[Rex Mundi]

There really aren't any Indios or tribes left by the time Independence would roll around to accomplish this.

 

[Zuvarq]

Is it possible that a group of mestizos could abandon Catholicism and adopt a native religion?

Also, mestizos and criollos who are either descended from the Aztec, Inca, etc. royal families, or have adopted indigenous culture or religion, are considered indigenous for this scenario.

There really aren't any Indios or tribes left by the time Independence would roll around to accomplish this.

Huh? They were a slight majority before post-independence European immigration. And there are still plenty of them today.

 

[Prism]

It's highly doubtful that they would abandon Catholicism which is very good at adapting minor deities and native rites into saints and holy days. At most you would see highly syncronized religions which did happen in OTL with voodoo,santeria,candomble and several other Afro-American religions.

 

[iori]

Most of Latin America remains Spanish until this day. Argentina and Uruguay are majority creole and Mexico and Columbia are majority mestizo and there is no way you're going to see a marginalised lower class group overthrowing the majority population. Not sure about the demographics of Ecuador, Peru and Paraguay but I'm doubtful. Bolivia and the Central American states are really the only possibilities from what I can see.

Erm no they are'nt.

Creole people in Latin America are those whom are either predominantly of African descent (Brazil) or, historically were the Whites born in South America (as opposed to the Peninsulares, the Whites born in the Metropole), with the latter term not having been used in in that way in over a century.

The below map shows the present situation of Latin America;

 

[Thoresby]

Erm no they are'nt.

Creole people in Latin America are those whom are either predominantly of African descent (Brazil) or, historically were the Whites born in South America (as opposed to the Peninsulares, the Whites born in the Metropole), with the latter term not having been used in in that way in over a century.

The below map shows the present situation of Latin America;

I meant it in the Latin American sense, i.e. Whites born in the America's, I thought it was obvious, Argentina obviously isn't majority black. While post-Independence immigration clearly further reduced the Indios share of the population by 1800 the tipping point had already been reached across most of Latin America though I think Bolivia and maybe Ecuador are the best bets considering their current demographics. Separately a great many people had some indigenous ancestry including in the upper echelons of colonial society but the higher up you got the more it was on the First Families of Virginia Pocahontas scale, i.e. a bit of family history and nothing more.

 

[othyrsyde]

Chileans and Brazillians are not majority white. You what though, who gives a shit, I'm done arguing for reality on a variety of issues on this site. In fact I'm done with this site, except for reading Doc's, Morgana's, and Thande's stuff. Adios AH.

 

[Deleted member 43582]

Chileans and Brazillians are not majority white. You what though, who gives a shit, I'm done arguing for reality on a variety of issues on this site. In fact I'm done with this site, except for reading Doc's, Morgana's, and Thande's stuff. Adios AH.

Well....
THAT escalated quickly.

 

[Deleted member 43582]

On topic:

I have to agree with what people said earlier. The best you can hope for is a mestizo-indio alliance against whites (so basically millde and lower classes together). But even then it would be hard to come up with a good POD for that.

 

[iori]

Chileans and Brazillians are not majority white. You what though, who gives a shit, I'm done arguing for reality on a variety of issues on this site. In fact I'm done with this site, except for reading Doc's, Morgana's, and Thande's stuff. Adios AH.

You're right about Brazil, it's plurality white (47.7% white compared to 43.1% mixed race), and I should have shown it as such by using striping but I was tired and feeling lazy; as to Chileans, well it's a matter of definition, but when asked the majority of Chileans themselves consider themself white.

 

[birdboy2000]

Would an earlier Spain-screw help? I don't know what the demographics of the colonies were over the years, but is there a period when in the absence of aid from the metropole, indigenous people have a chance of overthrowing the Spanish - peninsulares and criollos alike?

That said, this probably wouldn't apply everywhere in the Americas. It'd be a lot easier for Quechua, Nahua, or Guarani states to form than for other, whiter regions to somehow get an indigenous-led independent state. And with the Taino extinct as a culture* it's even more difficult in the Spanish Caribbean.

*In the sense that there ceased to be a group of people who considered themselves Taino. I'm aware that much of the population is still descended from them, but the effective lack of an indigenous identity makes an indigenous independence movement difficult.

 

[iori]

To cotnribute more, even in the early 19th century the demographics were very much against the indigenous populations, for example, while making-up more of the population than now the Amerindian population in Brazil was not the majority as early as the 1820's when Whites and Mixed Race groups combined formed the majority, indeed by the 1870's the indigenous population was less than 10% of the overall population.

Overall Bolivia is the best bet to fulfill the challenge while Peru and Ecuador are possibilities if you go back early enough.

 

[Braganza]

We can simply have Independentist movements leaded by Amerindians which pursued the formation of a national identity based upon the pre-Columbian cultures. A succesfull Túpac Amaru would be beautifully great!

 

[Braganza]

We can simply have Independentist movements leaded by Amerindians which pursued the formation of a national identity based upon the pre-Columbian cultures. A succesfull Túpac Amaru would be beautifully great!

ADDENDUM: However, I fear this wouldn't be possible in Brazil. The "pure" Indians are a minority, and a marginalized one, although they also fought for the Brazilian independence. Nevertheless, Indianism was always very strong here.

 

[Rex Mundi]

Is it possible that a group of mestizos could abandon Catholicism and adopt a native religion?

Also, mestizos and criollos who are either descended from the Aztec, Inca, etc. royal families, or have adopted indigenous culture or religion, are considered indigenous for this scenario.

Huh? They were a slight majority before post-independence European immigration. And there are still plenty of them today.

By your strange definition of "Indio," then yes, perhaps they might have formed a slight majority. I still doubt that, but they might have.

 

[Tripwire]

I think you'd need some sort of Indio middle-class/bourgeoisie. Revolts by the lower, most downtrodden classes, much as they seem poetically just, tend to fail horribly.

 

[juanml82]

We can simply have Independentist movements leaded by Amerindians which pursued the formation of a national identity based upon the pre-Columbian cultures. A succesfull Túpac Amaru would be beautifully great!

Keep in mind Tupac Amaru was a wealthy mestizo

 

[Tamandaré]

Possible in Paraguay and Bolivia, perhaps Peru (don't know much), but I can't see this happening in Brazil, Argentina or Colombia, which is where independence will most likely develop.

What about Bolivia getting independence and bringing the name Collasuyo back?

In Brazil, if you had a proper ideological bind, you could get a large slave revolt by blacks, if they did it in enough places and numbers, they could kick off the portuguese, but I can't see said country remaining united.

Chileans and Brazillians are not majority white. You what though, who gives a shit, I'm done arguing for reality on a variety of issues on this site. In fact I'm done with this site, except for reading Doc's, Morgana's, and Thande's stuff. Adios AH.

... the fuck?