AHC: Jihadi Caliphate Finlandizes Earth

[MerryPrankster]

With a POD no earlier than 1900, make it so that all or most of the oil-producing Middle Eastern nations are united under an Islamic jihadi regime that raises oil prices to a large degree and manages to basically Finlandize the industrial world by using said oil prices to become one of the richest states on Earth and weaken the other states' economies.

(Basically an OBL dream scenario.)

 

[Johannes Parisiensis]

With a POD no earlier than 1900, make it so that all or most of the oil-producing Middle Eastern nations are united under an Islamic jihadi regime that raises oil prices to a large degree and manages to basically Finlandize the industrial world by using said oil prices to become one of the richest states on Earth and weaken the other states' economies.

(Basically an OBL dream scenario.)

This is OTL - Saudi Aramia just needs to be even more militant about spreading its peculiar brand of Wahhabism.

 

[RousseauX]

With a POD no earlier than 1900, make it so that all or most of the oil-producing Middle Eastern nations are united under an Islamic jihadi regime that raises oil prices to a large degree and manages to basically Finlandize the industrial world by using said oil prices to become one of the richest states on Earth and weaken the other states' economies.

(Basically an OBL dream scenario.)

Ok so the Middle-Eastern Islamic countries produce something like 20-25% of the oil used by the US how are they gonna "finlandize the world" when the industrialized world buys from Canada or Venezuela instead?

Also how exactly does Islamic caliphate stay afloat if they raise their oil prices up to the point nobody can afford them? I mean, a large % of middle-east stays afloat because of oil prices how do they deal with not having income anymore?

 

[MerryPrankster]

Ok so the Middle-Eastern Islamic countries produce something like 20-25% of the oil used by the US.

Also how exactly does Islamic caliphate stay afloat if they raise their oil prices up to the point nobody can afford them?

1. Good point.

2. Obviously a happy balance would need to be found.

 

[RousseauX]

1. Good point.

2. Obviously a happy balance would need to be found.

Any sort of balance is only going to be more harmful to the ME than to the industrialized world because ultimately the industrialized world have alternatives (alt-energy, other sellers).

The ME has....what else exactly?

 

[Henriksson]

Any sort of balance is only going to be more harmful to the ME than to the industrialized world because ultimately the industrialized world have alternatives (alt-energy, other sellers).

The ME has....what else exactly?

Hell, there's not even enough refining capacity for the oil they have.*

*This might not be true today, but it was obviously the case earlier in the twentieth century.

 

[Pragmatic Progressive]

Outright finlandising is probably unlikely, but I can imagine a situation where the West, at least for some decades, is put off intervening in any war, civil war or revolution in the Middle East (i.e. from the Tunisian border to the Gulf of Arabia, and from the Bosphorus to the Straits of Aden) after Saudi-Arabia and the other OPEC countries make the Oil Crisis vastly more severe. Not so severe that they cut off their income, but so that... the West won't pay the price anymore and where they also threaten to do this again and again any time anyone supports Israel/intervenes in the Middle East.

Of course, the West would pump truly massive amounts of money into alternative energy forms, and into nuclear plants, and by 1990, we are out of this state again. But nevertheless... nearly 20 years of not intervening in the ME will lead to at least Israel having been utterly crushed.

 

[RousseauX]

But nevertheless... nearly 20 years of not intervening in the ME will lead to at least Israel having been utterly crushed.

Why?

Israel has the region's best army, the most coherent and developed political-military institutions, the strongest economy per capita, and enough nuclear weapons to take out every one of its opponents as the Samson option.

Not so severe that they cut off their income

How?

Every less gallon of oil sold is one less gallon of oil as income. If you cut off too little, then the west just buys from south America/Canada instead.