How likely is it for Japan to turn on Britain and try to claw out more territory from Russia and nab some outlying colonial islands in WW1? OTL there doesn't seem to have been much of a reason other than historically good trade relations for Japan to stick with Britain. Was there ever a risk of Japan switching sides during the 1900s or 1910s?
AHC: Have Japan join the Central Powers in WW1.
- Thread starter Worffan101
- Start date
Either way. Secret pact with Germany, opportunistic grab at the Russian far east, anything.
No, the Japan of WW1 was only interested in concessions in China, and Britain had recently backed them in the Russo-Japanese, not to mention Wilhelm was a racist asshole who help spur on the Yellow Peril against Japan. Resources only became an issue in the WW2 because the Japanese were bogged down in China.
First of all, the matter of Trade is not a trivial reason for a country that is developing and needs all the capital and trade it can get to catch up with the West. Other reasons:
Britain was significantly more accommodating toward Japan than other countries had been and as an added bonus, was less prone to falling for that yellow peril stuff than were France, Germany, Russia and even the USA. The French were a weaker potential ally anyway and were too close to the Russians, who were obviously a direct threat to Japanese interests in mainland Asia and had a phjysical presence on the other side of the Sea of Japan. The Americans were not interested in an alliance. Germany, in addition to having a King who held especially paranoid racist views of their country, also tried to conspire with France and Russia against Japan 20 years ago. They were obviously focused on Europe and had nothing to offer as an ally anyway except 1) the ability to temporarily keep the British from sending a fleet to the Pacific if Japan decided it wanted to seize something from Britain, and 2) keeping Russia busy. These sound good on paper but occupying the Russian Far East and British territories in Asia seems beyond the country's military capabilities with the resources, ships and funds available at that time (Recall that Russia had enough forces to spare to advance into Anatolia while fighting in WWI). Certainly nothing in the way of goods would be forthcoming from the bottled up Central Powers. Besides, Japan didn't really want anything Britain had; its colonies were conveniently far from Japan's and left little room for dispute. In contrast, Germany had the central Pacific islands, which Japan really needed, plus Tsingtao (and influence over the rest of the Shantung area). It all seems like a no-brainer.
Thank you all very much! I have sadly limited knowledge of Taisho-era Japan and am grateful for the information. 
Is there a particular book on the subject that I should look for?
Is there a particular book on the subject that I should look for?
Thank you all very much! I have sadly limited knowledge of Taisho-era Japan and am grateful for the information.
Is there a particular book on the subject that I should look for?
The best one I'm familiar with, especially for the moments around the war, is War and National Reinvention: Japan in the Great War, 1914-1919, by Frederick Dickinson, from the Harvard Press monograph series.
It does dispute several of the above posters, however: some significant personages in the Japanese power structure (if not in the 1914 government) genuinely did consider committing to Germany, for several reasons. This was primarily the clique centered around Yamagata Aritomo, one of the surviving old guard of the initial Meiji days, and centered largely around ex-Choshu samurai, most of whom became Army officers, and their allies/hangers-on.
The Yamagata faction: (a) being Army based was more sympathetic to the Germans given their aid in training the Japanese Army, (b) was disdainful of civilian politicians, as exemplified by the British Parliament, favored by the more Anglophilic (and, usually, not ex-military) Japanese politicians, (c) believed well into 1915 that Germany and the Central Powers were going to defeat France and Russia on the field, and wanted in on the winning side, and (d) thought that the larger British presence in the Pacific was more of a threat than the Germans.
They were outmaneuvered in 1914 by Kato Takaaki, the Foreign Minister, who was exactly all the things that the Yamagata faction hated: a politician, committed to his party, an Anglophile, and opposed to the military's attempts to control Japanese politics. While he was no less interested in control over China (Kato was the author of the notorious 21 Demands to China in 1915), he wanted a civilian government by elected politicians, rather than old, unelected nobles making decisions and steering the country. Kato pushed forward to the Diet and to the Cabinet with Japan's obligations under the Anglo-Japanese Treaty, and thus entered the war on the British side. A different Foreign Minister might not have been so dynamic, and Japanese neutrality might have continued for longer; alternately, a Yamagata-clique government might have declared for Germany early. It is doubtful it would have ended well for Japan, especially if the Central Powers still lost. Even if they won, it's doubtful that it would have been as good a thing for Japan as the Yamagata clique hoped for.
@Worffan101 - basically what the others have already said. Britain was the only Western power that had given Japan a fair shake so to speak, far more so than any others (as noted, the Kaiser’s attempt to pull France and Russia together against them and his Yellow Peril Ideas). Also, by this stage Japan still would have relied heavily on Britain - a lot of the IJN was built in British yards in the earlier days. Hell dude, the IJN Naval College at Etajima was built with red bricks imported from Britain
FillyofDelphi
Banned
@Worffan101 - basically what the others have already said. Britain was the only Western power that had given Japan a fair shake so to speak, far more so than any others (as noted, the Kaiser’s attempt to pull France and Russia together against them and his Yellow Peril Ideas). Also, by this stage Japan still would have relied heavily on Britain - a lot of the IJN was built in British yards in the earlier days. Hell dude, the IJN Naval College at Etajima was built with red bricks imported from Britain
Which means they'll only jump on Russia with Britain's OK... which given the right early 20th century alterations would hardly be impossible. While changing the German behavior to be fully acceptable to Britain is probably straining plausibility, since it would basically require Germany to willingly give up on having a world-class navy and the rising German industrial potential and pentration into traditionally British markets was just as much of an existentialist theat to the British hegemony as any potential military threat, its not as though Russia wasen't a rising industrial giant and were far more heavily pressing up against British areas of interest. Have some of the attempts at reconciliation in Centeral Asia-India and Russia refusing to back down in pushing for greater dominance in China, perhaps include Nicky being more willng to play ball with the Ottomans/gurantee their territorial integrity and with their French allies afte rthe overthrow of Bloody Abdul (Thus putting a Franco-Russian ally on the edge of the Egyptian lynchpin of the British Empire just when Asiatic security is becoming more of an issue as well as freeing up the Black Sea Fleet), and Britain might just be fine with Japan using the distraction of a general war in Europe to try to push for hegemony in Manchuria, with the assumption the Russians will give in rather than fight a two front war... which would end up being a miscalculation.
Of course, this depends on a scenario with VERY different conditions in Europe, since you need a Britan that's OK with saying "A Pox on both your houses" to the Continental Blocs.
If Japan decides to fight a war against Britain in the 1910s, it's going to end very badly for the former. Japan wasn't yet as powerful as it became in the 1940s, and Britain is obviously a far stronger opponent than Russia or China. Japan is going to lose their colonial empire in the same way that Germany did.
xsampa
Banned
The US will likely get Formosa only because British Formosa and Malaysia is a threat to PH.