1823: A Question of Philippine Independence and its effect

[caloysky]

Andres Novales, Emperor for a Day;

During 1823 a young creole officer attempted to overthrow the Spanish colonial government in Manila. With his other subordinates in the king's regiment, along with 800 native soldier they seize control of key locations inside the walled city of Intramuros.

Except for Fort Santiago. The commanding officer at the time was his own brother, Antonio Novales. He refused to open the gates of the fort. They next day his revolted ended.


What if Antonio Novales, heed his brother and open the gates of Fort Santiago? Would Andres Novales hold Manila indefinitely. It just so happen that at this time Spain is busy with the reconquest of Mexico.

I wonder how would this effect the South East Asia as a whole.

[Please Discuss!]

 

[Namayan]

It depends. If Novales' Empire actually industrialize the same time frame as Japan, South East Asia will be probably the Mare Nostrum. The name of the state may not even be Philippines. If so, this South East Asian state will affect the colonization of the European powers and will go head to head with them eventually. It will have a great effect on the cultural, historical effects ,etc. This South Asian nation, due to its Philippine experience, by this time will be sensitive to any form of discrimination and slavery.

The closest thing that I can pattern to the South East Asia unification/division is Balkanization. Had South East Asia unified and industrialize at 1820-60s timeframe, it would be like a modern Byzantine Empire covering the Balkans + Turkey at a Great power level.

If it does modernize within the time frame, it will start absorbing the moro sultanates, buy up north borneo, merge with White rajahs in sarawak and become the protector of Brunei which are still independent from Europe by this time. After that, freeing up the nations under the Dutch Colonies will probably be the top priority and absorbing what is modern day indonesia.

The Malay peninsula is a tricky part and may or may not come into sphere of SEA state of influence since it will be under British influence by this time.

It will in the end be the the descendant of the Majahapit under the leadership of a Creole, who was born, lived, and had parents who migrated in South east Asia.

Of course, it will affect Japanese and Chinese histories by either taming Japan or preventing any chop up of China by the Great Powers since status quo with Imperial China and Shogun/Imperial Japan is better for this South East Asian state than what the Europeans/Americans would want because of direct trade access by the state compared to the Europeans/Americans.

Pan Asianism might be stronger since it will have a SEA superstate mediating between China and Japan around 1850s-1900s. Although in OTL, it did happen but in a lower scale and smaller timeframe during Sun Yat Sen, First Philippine Republic, Meiji Japan.

 

[caloysky]

Nice input,

Here is my take on the rough draft of the timeline

1823 June - The walled city of Intramuros at Manila is captured by a young creole officer named Andres Novales. The Spanish Loyalist sent reinforcement from Pampanga in an attempt to recapture the Capital of Philippines. All of these attempts had failed.

1823 September - Andres Novales being a recruitment drive of all able body 'filipino' to help liberate the rest of the island from Spanish Tyranny. Manila is opened to international trade.

1833 December - Spain never made any attempt to recapture the Philippines as it had most of its forces tied down to Mexico. As a result the Novales' Revolution had captured most of the Spanish possession in the Island. [On the sidenote do you think Spain would send troops to recapture Manila, even if it is busy waging War in Mexico?]

1836 - Spain recognizes the independence of both Mexico and Philippines.

1837 - A military expedition from Manila is sent to subjugate the rest of Muslim Mindanao. Their objective is to Christianize the Island once and for all.

1841 - Kingdom of Sarawak is established by James Brooke. At the same time formed an alliance with the Philippines. James Brooke later married a daughter of Andres Novales.

1843 - Industrial Revolution begins in Manila.​

I wonder what would happen to Spain if it lost Philippines while trying to recapture Mexico?

 

[Warpath]

Are you gonna make a Philippine Empire TL?

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

1823 at this time the Spanish had alreadylost control of most of South Amreica - IIRC there were no large troops and fleets fighting for control of SO. Spain could spare the troopps, but the other question would be - would spain want to get the phillies back? - Are they important enough to wage war for them?

 

[caloysky]

Yes I'm going to make a Philippine TL. But its hard to research about Andres Novales and Luis Rodrigues Valera.

Andres Bonifacio on other hand...

 

[kasumigenx]

It would end up being carved up by powers who wanted a piece of the Philippines, before the Fil-Am war, the Philippines was in the path of fragmentation/balkanization

 

[Namayan]

1823 at this time the Spanish had alreadylost control of most of South Amreica - IIRC there were no large troops and fleets fighting for control of SO. Spain could spare the troopps, but the other question would be - would spain want to get the phillies back? - Are they important enough to wage war for them?

Philippines will probably not be important since the Manila-Acapulco trade has been severed.

Yes I'm going to make a Philippine TL. But its hard to research about Andres Novales and Luis Rodrigues Valera.

Andres Bonifacio on other hand...

I can help you. But with Novales it is skies the limit. He is just 23 years old, Spanish educated, fought in the Napoleonic wars.

The Philippine name is a problem. The Filipinos might use a different name much like Mexico using its name rather than New Spain.

Christianization of Moro sultanates is probably not possible under Novales. He is exposed too much to the French Revolution. He will probably go more for Pluralism.

A possible example I can give you on Independence is Chile. Chile has less resources and manpower than Philippines but was able to resist and even buy its own Navy within their wars of independence. It also got help from Britain besides the fact there are 500,000 unemployed British soldiers around this time which it used as a British Foreign Legion. So, if with British help, independence would be easier and industrialization will be earlier.

It would end up being carved up by powers who wanted a piece of the Philippines, before the Fil-Am war, the Philippines was in the path of fragmentation/balkanization

This is a possiblity as long as Philippines will have the same leadership quality as OTL. But in ttl, that is what is being POD care off Novales.

 

[kasumigenx]

This is a possiblity as long as Philippines will have the same leadership quality as OTL. But in ttl, that is what is being POD care off Novales.

No, the Visayas and Luzon have different nobility and culture that is why I think Philippines would end up balkanized, the main reason why the Spanish held Luzon is the Macabebe Scouts who are loyal to the Spanish, without these Macabebes the Spanish would have lost the island in the 17th century in the Malong revolt.

 

[Namayan]

No, the Visayas and Luzon have different nobility and culture that is why I think Philippines would end up balkanized, the main reason why the Spanish held Luzon is the Macabebe Scouts who are loyal to the Spanish, without these Macabebes the Spanish would have lost the island in the 17th century in the Malong revolt.

Not Necessarily. Having a difference in culture does not automatically mean balkanization. Spain after all had different cultures/languages(Castille/Catalan/Basque/Galician). Same thing with France also(Occitan/Frankish/French).

As long as Novales controls majority of the resources and manpower, it should not be a problem. As the man in power, he can either assimilate them peacefully, tolerate them/make a multicultural empire or put down any rebellion against him. He is after all rebelling because of racial discrimination and exposed to the French Revolution which will give him an understanding of how to handle cultural/religious differences.

 

[kasumigenx]

Not Necessarily. Having a difference in culture does not automatically mean balkanization. Spain after all had different cultures/languages(Castille/Catalan/Basque/Galician). Same thing with France also(Occitan/Frankish/French).

As long as Novales controls majority of the resources and manpower, it should not be a problem. As the man in power, he can either assimilate them peacefully, tolerate them/make a multicultural empire or put down any rebellion against him. He is after all rebelling because of racial discrimination and exposed to the French Revolution which will give him an understanding of how to handle cultural/religious differences.

But at that time, the Dutch and other colonial powers also had an interest at the Philippines so they might support any rebellion, so it might mean that the Philippines might lose territory later on..

You can think what you want...

 

[caloysky]

But at that time, the Dutch and other colonial powers also had an interest at the Philippines so they might support any rebellion, so it might mean that the Philippines might lose territory later on..

You can think what you want...

The question is which of the few colonial powers had the ability to enforce their claim on the Philippines. Its one thing to conquer uncivilized natives. But its another thing to wage against a developed country with a capacity to supply modern weaponry to their troops.

On other hand, @Namayan help me a little with Novales.

He has a mentor namend Luis Rodriguez Valera, he is known to coin himself as
'conde de filipino'. He is a member of the European nobility of which family I don't have a clue, btw. I could only speculate that he is from Spain. Also, he advocates equality and Filipino nationalism.

Should I pattern Novales government as a Meritocratic Constitutional Monarchy?

 

[Namayan]

But at that time, the Dutch and other colonial powers also had an interest at the Philippines so they might support any rebellion, so it might mean that the Philippines might lose territory later on..

You can think what you want...

You don't know what your saying. The Dutch is very busy in Sumatra and java at this time around. Novales has more manpower and resources than the Dutch in Asia. So it might be the other way around, Novales interfering Sumatra and java by selling weapons or giving manpower.

Also, Novales can also stop the Dutch Anglo treaty from happening if he has a lot of British pull or trade something of interest to the Brits.

The question is which of the few colonial powers had the ability to enforce their claim on the Philippines. Its one thing to conquer uncivilized natives. But its another thing to wage against a developed country with a capacity to supply modern weaponry to their troops.

On other hand, @Namayan help me a little with Novales.

He has a mentor namend Luis Rodriguez Valera, he is known to coin himself as
'conde de filipino'. He is a member of the European nobility of which family I don't have a clue, btw. I could only speculate that he is from Spain. Also, he advocates equality and Filipino nationalism.

Should I pattern Novales government as a Meritocratic Constitutional Monarchy?

Your suggestion is within his knowledge and capacity to do. But, if you based on influences on Novales, Spanish American form of government, napoleonic government or a foreign power, which is probably British form of government are governments he can form.

Filipino nationalism by 1890s level is pushing it. He probably won't consider himself Filipino the way Rizal does. He will probably refer to himself as emperor of "local prehispanic name", emperor of the indies rather than emperor of the Filipinos.

Novales is a creole. Valera is the Conde Filipino.

The most important part of Novales life is his military career. At age 14 he was a lieutenant. Volunteered to Spain Vs france. Came back as captain even after being demoted to volunteer solider upon entrance in Spain. In otl, he is just too good military wise but bad in politics. A pattern I can attribute to Robb Stark. Poltical weakness of Novales Is what probably you will need to POD. The rest of him is just too good to butterfly.

 

[ramones1986]

Is 1823 too early for Philippines to be independent?

 

[Namayan]

Is 1823 too early for Philippines to be independent?

Not too early, just different. If you look at OTL, Philippines had the same opportunities to be independent as Spanish-America during the time of the Napoleonic wars, because of the downfall of the Bourbon monarchy which meant Spain lost control over its colonies. One difference between 1890s vs 1820s rebellion is, the rebels lost.

 

[ramones1986]

If you look at OTL, Philippines had the same opportunities to be independent as Spanish-America during the time of the Napoleonic wars, because of the downfall of the Bourbon monarchy which meant Spain lost control over its colonies. One difference between 1890s vs 1820s rebellion is, the rebels lost.

I see; nevertheless, even though Novales and the rebels won in TTL, they still confront the problems of the Philippines at that time.
And I see a problem; it was 1823, and most Filipinos are still consider themselves as members of their ethnolinguistic groups. Also, the surnames issue.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

So how does the Philippines undergo a Unification scenario in order to be unified?

 

[mightfly]

This is really interesting in affects as this would place another independent but vulnerable Pacific power in play when the Japanese and Hawaiians start looking for alliances against colonizing powers if that isn't butterflied away. Which is a possibility.

The Pacific alliance was pretty much absorbed by the Americans as they gained there but there was a chance for a ATL if they had been stronger around the time the French became aggressive along the Asia-Pacific with gunboat diplomacy around 1840 onwards.

It would take them gaining enough strength to present a united front. Korea was a small member and Tahiti tried to get support but the French stopped that. OTL japan was the only country that succeeded in bootstrapping itself.

basically the Philippines might become a major member.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Could we even see a small alliance of Siam, the Philippines and Japan as the members of a junior alliance?

 

[Kyro92]

Just because Luzon falls doesn't necessarily mean the other islands fall. At the very least it would take them a few years to acquire the navy necessary to take over Palawan and Mindanao. My feeling is that Spain might eventually reconquer Luzon so long as they keep hold of the Southern islands- if Spain tried that in the Americas the neighbouring revolutionary states would rally to kick them back out, but Luzon doesn't have any neighbours.