THE PAST
Operation Long Jump is often considered by historians, the epitome of the stupidity and delusion of the Nazi hierarchs toward the end of World War II. The idea that the assassination of the three main Allied leaders (Churchill, Roosevelt, and Stalin) would prompt the Reich's enemies to surrender was simply ludicrous, but no one seems to have pointed this out to Hitler.
Inevitably, the violent deaths of the three did not lead to the collapse of the Allied war effort. On the contrary, it only increased the intransigence of the new leadership (Wallace, Molotov and Eden) for the complete defeat of the Third Reich and the Japanese Empire.
Berlin and Tokyo's attempts to slow their inevitable defeat (including the use of chemical/biological weapons and a disturbing obsession with confrontation to the last man) achieved only the nuclear destruction of Berlin, Nuremberg, Frankfurt, Kyoto, Nagasaki and Kokura.
The defeat of the major Axis members and their permanent division into multiple states seemed to have ushered in a new era of peace and prosperity. Although relations between Washington and Moscow were no longer as cordial as during the war, the cease-fire in China in 1948 seemed to confirm the successes of Wallace's pacifist policy.
And then in 1949, the Italian peninsula burst into flames following the assassination of Palmiro Togliatti. The victory of the Italian communists and socialists in 1951 and the subsequent expansion of Soviet influence in Europe ended any hope of peaceful coexistence between communists and the capitalist world.
Unlike World War II, however, the capitalist world would not face the new threat unitedly. Alienated first by Wallace's support for decolonization (including Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam) and then by President MacArthur's belligerant rhetoric, London and Paris in turn decided to create new political blocs to preserve their empires and confront their rivals.
These four powers were soon joined by the emerging power of South China. Enraged by Wallace's "betrayal" in 1948 and the Soviet occupation of parts of its territories, Nanjing soon moved to create its own sphere of influence opposed to all its enemies (real or presumed).
Ironically, Wallace's policies toward Third World countries were taken up and readapted by his more belligerent successors.
The consequences of this silent five-way challenge were felt especially in Africa. Ian Smuth's victory during the 1948 elections guaranteed London a stable and trusted ally in South Africa, while Paris set to work to establish allied regimes in its former colonies.
At the same time Nanjing, Washington and Moscow began arming various groups and supporting the creation of regional alliances that could increase their influence in the Dark Continent.
This silent war was fought in South America, not only against the Communists. Peron's and later Allende's decision to embrace the third way offered by Beijing made Vargas' Brazil a key ally for Washington.
This silent conflict partially ended in 1999 not because of a nuclear conflict but because of the incompetence of Soviet leaders. What began as a simple protest in Berlin over the excessive price of bread soon became a full-blown popular uprising that hastily shook the whole of Central Europe.
Only the reformers' coup against the old conservative leader prevented the total collapse of the Stalingrad Accords and, more importantly, the use of the Soviet nuclear arsenal against the rebels.
THE PRESENT
"Uncertainty." This is the best way to define the mood of the world more than a decade after the success of the European Spring.
The United States should be excited about the new global situation. The formation of the anti-communist Warsaw Pact has allowed Washington to expand its influence in Europe once again, and even in Africa communist forces are losing ground.
However, the Soviet bear is only wounded not knocked down. With each passing day, the slow military and economic recovery of Moscow and its allies goes on.
But even if Soviets have survived the 1999 crisis, their weakening is evident. While Romania, Bulgaria and the Asian allies are still loyal to Moscow, other communist countries are slipping out of the Kremlin's hands.
The Italians and Yugoslavs, always ill-tolerant of Soviet interference in their internal affairs, have taken advantage of Soviet weakness to create their own political bloc. Worse, even the Egyptians seem to be preferring Rome's arms and funding to Moscow's.
On the other hand, London and Paris are not having a good time either. Although they don't have to worry as much now about the communists in Africa, there are always Chinese forces to worry about.
Moreover, the specter of a possible reunification of Germany has come back to haunt Europe.
The German federation is a bizarre state. Although East Germany was the first country to overthrow its communist government, democracy in the country did not last long. Because of poor economic conditions and international isolation, the East German people elected nationalist demagogues.
The current German leader, a former stasi agent, is an access advocate of the inevitable reunification of the German nation as evidenced by his aggressive foreign policy and support for extremist groups in neighboring countries.
In this area, Berlin has found a valuable ally in the Sahel. Like its European counterpart, the leader of the Sahelian Republic hopes to reunify all of the old French West Africa under his leadership.
Nanjing, still disappointed with the continued survival of North China, is increasingly struggling to control its ambitious and expansionist allies.
Of course, the problems of the great powers pale in comparison with the threats coming from Algeria and Bharat.
The territorial partitions imposed by their former colonial masters along with the interference of the various powers during the Cold War did not help the stability of the two countries. On the contrary by the late 1970s, both countries became brutal dictatorships.
Despite the apparent differences between Algerian Ba'athists and Hindu fundamentalists, the founding ideologies of the two rogue states share the main goal: the reconquest of lost territories and the complete eradication of the various different ethnic groups on them. Rumors of biological weapons and other horrible being tested by the two nations for the imminent conflict have been going around for almost a year now.
These are difficult times, characterized by more and more nuclear tests around the globe.
