Sequel de Mayo (Cinco de Mayo, Vol. II)

[boredviewer1234]

As I see it there are three scenarios.
1) Keep defending the Confederates. Advantages, keeps the US focused *mostly* on the CSA. Disadvantages, explaining to the Soldiers why they are dying so far from home when Sonora/Chihuahua are occupied by Americans.
2) Withdraw to Mexico and keep fighting. Advantages, likely to be able to retake Sonora/Chihuahuha, but will face the US exclusively when the Confederates do fall (though the entire question of whether the US will need more troops *fighting* the Confederacy or *occupying* the Confederacy is interesting.
3) Peace out. Advantages. No more Mexicans dying. Disadvantages, gives the US the time to finish off the Confederacy, the question is whether the Confederacy is too much for the US to control and whether the US will *always* have the CSA as an enemy they have to keep large numbers of troops to keep an eye on.

I'm actually expecting #3 pretty soon, especially with the Mexican *internal* pressures.

Hmmm good point though I think a compromise will occur between the three, just as the CSA will become a sorta Latin analogue I envision it like Paraguay was between Brazil and Argentina in that while they won't ever close the door they won't open it given the risks.

So while I do agree 2 and three are likely going to happen I do think they will they won't leave it to chance the USA won't swallow it.

Though on the topic of if the USA can occupy the CSA you do raise a concerning point, I can very much see their being a strong pull in the US to stop demobilizing given how bloody and expensive this war was than actually raise the amount of men needed to police the CSA.

 

[DanMcCollum]

Well, the TL's main character *is* named Max.

And oddly, somehow the thought of the withdrawl of the Mexicans reminded me of "A Canticle for Leibowitz".

Oh my god! Canticle is one of my favorite novels - I read it for the first time back in HS, my Da gave me his paperback copy from the 60s, and its one that I always come back to every few years. Its so amazing!

 

[Gman]

Would it be possible to estimate the ranking of various countries' economies and their sizes in 1913 prior to the GAW?

 

[naraht]

In terms of HDI, to boil it down *very* far for the early 20th century. My guess is that the CSA has a higher percentage of people (though almost all white men) with a high school education than Russia does and possibly a higher number of people with a higher education degree. Statistics like that take a bit to decay...

 

[dcharles]

In terms of HDI, to boil it down *very* far for the early 20th century. My guess is that the CSA has a higher percentage of people (though almost all white men) with a high school education than Russia does and possibly a higher number of people with a higher education degree. Statistics like that take a bit to decay...

Much, much higher. Back around 1860, the South had a white literacy rate that was below the North and the UK, but higher than France, IIRC.

 

[Devoid]

Much, much higher. Back around 1860, the South had a white literary rate that was below the North and the UK, but higher than France, IIRC.

Well, but there's also a huge Black population (40-45%, IIRC, at the time of the Civil War) that they're doing their very best to keep as illiterate as possible, so any real number would be a fair bit lower than the white rate.
Probably still higher than Russia considering how ass-backwards the tsarist regime was, but not by much, IMO. And honestly I wouldn't be surprised if France has managed to beat the South's white literacy rate by 1910.

 

[dcharles]

Well, but there's also a huge Black population (40-45%, IIRC, at the time of the Civil War) that they're doing their very best to keep as illiterate as possible, so any real number would be a fair bit lower than the white rate.
Probably still higher than Russia considering how ass-backwards the tsarist regime was, but not by much, IMO. And honestly I wouldn't be surprised if France has managed to beat the South's white literacy rate by 1910.

40%? In the ATL, or OTL?

 

[naraht]

Much, much higher. Back around 1860, the South had a white literary rate that was below the North and the UK, but higher than France, IIRC.

And I doubt that any of the events between 1860 and the start of the war would have pushed that down significantly. Now overall literacy rate is of course pushed down by the slaves, but until you get guaranteed education through 5/6th grade, in nations, they aren't going to catch up to that). And there have been few nations that have seen their educational percentages *actively* go down. Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge springs to mind. I don't know if it happened significantly with significant moves to Theocracy like 1979 Iran.

 

[Devoid]

40%? In the ATL, or OTL?

I'm talking 1860, pre-PoD, when that year's census counted 4 million slaves in the South, against 5 million free people, for a total Southern (white and Black) population of 9 million. Not sure how it would've evolved in the ATL but that's what it was at 1860, if my figures are correct.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Here's a somewhat morbid question:

In 1910, the CSA census said the country had a population of 24,355,817. Between the war losses and the departure of TX, KY, and whatever else the Americans take, what year do we think that the CSA will have that population number again? 1950? 1960? Even later?

 

[dcharles]

I'm talking 1860, pre-PoD, when that year's census counted 4 million slaves in the South, against 5 million free people, for a total Southern (white and Black) population of 9 million. Not sure how it would've evolved in the ATL but that's what it was at 1860, if my figures are correct.

I just looked it up--on the wiki for the CSA it says 3.5 million slaves out of a population of 9.1 million, so thirty eight percent. I was (mis)remembering, I think, a stat pulled from a George McClellan letter where he's bitching about the Confederates outnumbering him, and I thought I remembered him giving the figure as three million. I might be remembering it wrong or he might have been ball parking the number. It's funny how random things collect in your mind, like cobwebs in the corner.

 

[naraht]

Here's a somewhat morbid question:

In 1910, the CSA census said the country had a population of 24,355,817. Between the war losses and the departure of TX, KY, and whatever else the Americans take, what year do we think that the CSA will have that population number again? 1950? 1960? Even later?

Something I just realized looking back at the 1910 census. Texas and Kentucky are the most populated states in the CSA...
TX 3.9M, KY 2.5M , GA, 2.4M, TN 2.3M, VA 2.2M

When I first wrote this, I forgot the M after the TN and VA populations. the truly morbid thought came to mind is that 2.3 and 2.2 may be the population of those states by the end of the war.

 

[KingSweden24]

Would it be possible to estimate the ranking of various countries' economies and their sizes in 1913 prior to the GAW?

Probably. Not sure how I’d go about doing that of course, economic data in the 1910s was meh and the various Latin participants is hard to peg down. This is something I’d be happy to collab on if anyone has ideas about the right approach

In terms of HDI, to boil it down *very* far for the early 20th century. My guess is that the CSA has a higher percentage of people (though almost all white men) with a high school education than Russia does and possibly a higher number of people with a higher education degree. Statistics like that take a bit to decay...

I also don’t see why the CSA would have less schooling for the white population at least rather than more; schools were after all a big part of Tillmanite philosophy and reform, even if it was aimed at agricultural education

Much, much higher. Back around 1860, the South had a white literary rate that was below the North and the UK, but higher than France, IIRC.

There you go

And I doubt that any of the events between 1860 and the start of the war would have pushed that down significantly. Now overall literacy rate is of course pushed down by the slaves, but until you get guaranteed education through 5/6th grade, in nations, they aren't going to catch up to that). And there have been few nations that have seen their educational percentages *actively* go down. Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge springs to mind. I don't know if it happened significantly with significant moves to Theocracy like 1979 Iran.

Iranians are, considering everything, pretty well educated. Bad as the Ayatollahs are, arch-conservative Shiism =/= Wahhabism

Here's a somewhat morbid question:

In 1910, the CSA census said the country had a population of 24,355,817. Between the war losses and the departure of TX, KY, and whatever else the Americans take, what year do we think that the CSA will have that population number again? 1950? 1960? Even later?

Prob 1960ish, my end target by 2020ish is a CS population of somewhere between 55-58m so that’s probably enough to get you there on a 60 year timescale

 

[naraht]

Probably. Not sure how I’d go about doing that of course, economic data in the 1910s was meh and the various Latin participants is hard to peg down. This is something I’d be happy to collab on if anyone has ideas about the right approach

I also don’t see why the CSA would have less schooling for the white population at least rather than more; schools were after all a big part of Tillmanite philosophy and reform, even if it was aimed at agricultural education

There you go

Iranians are, considering everything, pretty well educated. Bad as the Ayatollahs are, arch-conservative Shiism =/= Wahhabism

Prob 1960ish, my end target by 2020ish is a CS population of somewhere between 55-58m so that’s probably enough to get you there on a 60 year timescale

Yes, for example Iran's Nuclear Engineering is mostly home grown. The question is whether *Brazil* post war will see a net brain drain or not.

I'm sure that some of the CSA's Universities will take damage due to the war, but I doubt the US Troops will have destroying Universities as a particular war aim. Even then, as long as having a degree in law or medicine is respected, the country literacy rate is unlikely to suffer that much. (which is part of why depressing the HDI is going to be difficult absent something like the NI Troubles on a *national* basis. At the level of passing the hat in a Black church in Cleveland ends up with the money being used buy explosives to blow up bank buildings in Charlotte, NC) The other option is continued areas not under national control at the level of FARC in Colombia or any of the groups in Mindanao, Philippines.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Prob 1960ish, my end target by 2020ish is a CS population of somewhere between 55-58m so that’s probably enough to get you there on a 60 year timescale

I'm pretty sure we talked about this but the ten states (not counting TX and KY) that make up the CSA have over 80 million people OTL.

You are looking at a country ITTL that's not only lagging behind the USA developmentally but is basically 70ish percent as full too. Gonna be a very interesting (in the Chinese sense) place to explore as the 20th Century unfolds.

 

[KingSweden24]

I'm pretty sure we talked about this but the ten states (not counting TX and KY) that make up the CSA have over 80 million people OTL.

You are looking at a country ITTL that's not only lagging behind the USA developmentally but is basically 70ish percent as full too. Gonna be a very interesting (in the Chinese sense) place to explore as the 20th Century unfolds.

Indeed, since my target for the US as of 2020 (to keep things simple) is something like 320m and 70k GDP per cap. So about five times the population and 3.5 times the per person GDP

 

[naraht]

I'm pretty sure we talked about this but the ten states (not counting TX and KY) that make up the CSA have over 80 million people OTL.

You are looking at a country ITTL that's not only lagging behind the USA developmentally but is basically 70ish percent as full too. Gonna be a very interesting (in the Chinese sense) place to explore as the 20th Century unfolds.

I imagine a *lot* of that will be that Florida is likely to be half (less?) of its current population. As I said before. (Golden Girls) Only Blanche ends up in Miami. Neither Rose nor Dorothy do...

I don't *think* that Author has set things up for boat people from Miami trying to reach Cuba, (World War Z levels), but Miami won't be *that* much larger than Havana...

 

[naraht]

Indeed, since my target for the US as of 2020 (to keep things simple) is something like 320m and 70k GDP per cap. So about five times the population and 3.5 times the per person GDP

So basically OTL population in more or less 3/4 of the area? I'm presuming that, other than possibly Baja, the United States won't control any land in 2020 they don't control in 2020 OTL.

 

[Taunay]

Indeed, since my target for the US as of 2020 (to keep things simple) is something like 320m and 70k GDP per cap. So about five times the population and 3.5 times the per person GDP

Do you have population targets for other countries in the Americas that you wouldn't mind sharing?

 

[KingSweden24]

I imagine a *lot* of that will be that Florida is likely to be half (less?) of its current population. As I said before. (Golden Girls) Only Blanche ends up in Miami. Neither Rose nor Dorothy do...

I don't *think* that Author has set things up for boat people from Miami trying to reach Cuba, (World War Z levels), but Miami won't be *that* much larger than Havana...

I haven’t entirely decided what to do with Vegas yet but a Havana that’s the Vegas AND Miami of the Americas would certainly be way more gigantic than Miami (which may be more like Cancun or something)

So basically OTL population in more or less 3/4 of the area? I'm presuming that, other than possibly Baja, the United States won't control any land in 2020 they don't control in 2020 OTL.

Right

Do you have population targets for other countries in the Americas that you wouldn't mind sharing?

Eh sorta. I’m thinking Mexico around 160m or so and Canada sans Quebec/Maritimes around 20-21m, Texas maybe a tick above that.

South America I haven’t given much such thought to