Holding Back the Red Tide - A Czechoslovakian TL

I wonder how a democratic Czechoslovakia will change the expulsion of German? As it's democratic, maybe some more of the Anti-Nazi Germans are allowed to stay. Also it could have interesting consequences, when all those anti-communist Austrians and germans expelled from elsewhere try to flee to the gateway of the west.
Will not change nothing. Expulsion of Germans was done long before Communist got to power in 1948. Czechoslovakia democratically elected Government from election in 1946 to 1948.
Think is, Germans were so hated after WWII in Central and Eastern Europe, that you do not needed Communist to expel them out.
I believe eviction of Germans was done before 1946 ended. At least the biggest wave of it.
 
Still... It's perhaps not the wisest choice of names he could have opted for
Well his party was named Czechoslovak Socialist Party from 1919- 1926 and Czechoslovak National Socialist Party from 1926 to 1948. In 1946 election it got over 18 %.
 
Well his party was named Czechoslovak Socialist Party from 1919- 1926 and Czechoslovak National Socialist Party from 1926 to 1948. In 1946 election it got over 18 %.

Considering the ethnic cleansing Done under Benes, the Shoe fits.

Communist Austria, that will Be very interesting. If the Hungarians Rise up As per OTL, might the Austrians follow Suit?
 
At Yalta, Churchill and Roosevelt had pressed Stalin to let American troops liberate Prague, while Russian troops would liberate Bratislava. The country would not be split apart and would remain in the western sphere of influence. Stalin in return demanded Austria, which the British and Americans reluctantly gave them. Stalin also promised free elections in Poland.

This is highly unlikely, and I think unnecessary for your POD.

It is important to remember that no one in 1945 knew the Cold War was going to happen and dominate international politics for the next four decades. Everyone was still thinking about how they could prevent Germany from going to war for a third time. Yes, there were occupation zones, and both sides were thinking of spheres of influence, but at this point it was not with the intention of dividing Europe into two camps. Various people did forsee this, especially on the British side, but everyone going into 1945 had very different ideas on what postwar Europe would look like than how it turned out. The US intended to leave Europe completely. Stalin thought a postwar economic collapse would give him all of Europe very soon. And it was what to do with Germany, not US-USSR rivalry, that was on everyone's mind.

Stalin initially believed he could get friendly regimes in Eastern Europe do to goodwill towards the Red Army for defeating the Nazis, and the attraction of the Communist parties. It was only during the results of the first elections that showed the Communists couldn't win elections on their own that Stalin began resorting to brute force.

Czechoslovakia - as an allied nation - was not subject to occupation by the Red Army. They pulled out very quickly. Soviets don't need a quid pro quo to allow the Czechoslovakians to have free elections. They had that IOTL.

The Czech government-in-exile, unlike the Polish, showed itself to be extremely cooperative with Stalin, so Stalin didn't think he needed to take the measures he did against the Poles. He really thought he could win the Czechs over, and do so in a way that prevented relations with the West from deteriorating.

Although the Allies had already agreed that an independent Austria would be re-established after the war (they did this in 1943), and that Austria was initially going to be divided into occupation zones before the Yalta Conference. It was not until the Potsdam Conference that those occupation zones became determined.

So there is no need for a quid pro quo "exchanging: Czechoslovakia for Austria. You can easily keep Czechoslovakia democratic without any need for involving Austria. The crucial events on Czechoslovakia's future are in 1948, not 1945. This isn't to say that changes in 1945 won't cascade into significant changes by 1948, but these can be stritly operational or tractical on the part of armies. It doesn't need to be done at Yalta.
 
Part 2: Expulsion and the Marshall Plan
After the protectorate of Bohemia and Morvia was formed the Nazis had control over Czechoslovakia. After the war at the Potsdam conference a final agreement for the expulsion of Germans from Czechoslovakia was reached. The mostly German population of Sudetenland was expelled due to the Benes decrees. There were some massacres and about 250000 people were expelled by 1948. Some Sudeten Germans were not expelled these included anti-fascists and those married to ethnic Czechs.
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By 1948 the Czech goverment consisted of a coalition of the Czech National Social Party ,Czechoslovak People's Party,Democratic Party and the Czechoslovak Social Democracy Party. The President was still Edvard Benes with Jan Šrámek of the Czechoslovak People's Party as Prime Minister. Jan Masaryk was made Foreign Minister and Klement Gottwald was made Education Minister to please the KSČ.

With Czechoslovakia leaning towards the West, Jan Masaryk was invited to Paris for a confernence on the Marshall Plan. All the countries in Europe were invited, with the exeption of Spain and some smaller countries. The Pro-Soviet countries like Poland were banned by Stalin from attending. However a Czechoslovak delegation came to the conference. The Marshall Plan was accepted and Czechoslovakia cemented its place as a pro-US country.


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Will Czechoslovakia being a member of the "Western Bloc" change the outcome of the Hungarian Uprising in 1956?

If we assume that all of Czechoslovakia is actively pro-Western and not merely neutralized, that means Hungary shares a border with NATO. Also, that East Germany, which would assuredly be tightly under Soviet control has a much longer border with the West, and if Austria is more tightly under Soviet rule, it too is a long salient mostly surrounded by pro-Western territories.

All of which points to a much higher degree of Soviet paranoia about holding these countries, but how can the Russians keep control most effectively?

OTL the Soviet hegemony was rarely a simple matter of conquest; almost everywhere they had local allies. Even Poland, which is the most obvious exception, had its people who would freely align with the Soviets, it's just that there they'd be very much in the minority.

Austria though might be an extreme case comparable to Poland and it seems likely to me that ITTL the Soviets would mostly let it go, once satisfied they'd be neutralized in the sense of agreeing not to join a pro-Western, anti-Soviet pact like NATO (or become the kind of "neutral" Sweden was, genuinely detached from the operational alliance but de facto a well-armed pro-Western ally).

But with Hungary directly bordering a NATO nation, what will the Russians do? We could look at Bulgaria and of course East Germany for examples.

Arguably they'd take more care to build consensus for the Warsaw Pact in Hungary and thus avoid the crisis in the first place, but that's difficult. There are people in Hungary who would never be content with the Russian alliance, and people who would never accept a socialist economy; to try to buy off others who are wavering would involve more success in the economic front and that was something I presume the Soviets did their level best to succeed at, so they can't really offer more in reality. The alternative is a heavier-handed crackdown from the beginning, which of course would merely alienate more Hungarians sooner and give legitimacy to any revolutionary movement whatsoever, even one that is obviously reactionary.

And if the internal crisis does develop as OTL, Eisenhower or whoever might be US President come the mid-1950s would not have the excuses he did OTL, that Hungary was simply inaccessible to US power. Of course anyone sane looking at a map would see that using NATO force to intervene inside Hungary would be asking for a very nasty war, what with Czechoslovkia--which would be involved up to the eyebrows, being the only Western conduit to Hungarian borders--being so terribly vulnerable on at least one huge flank to the north, on two that have the place literally within Soviet jaws if Austria is being held as a full WP/COMECON member as well.

So Ike might not be able to say what he said OTL, but the Czech government might be the one to veto such intervention, pointing out their country would surely die. But then again, if there were an all-out war started by either side, the Czechs are right there to be blasted and chewed up in short order anyway, so if they were to say that in this case, there's some doubt they'd rally to the war in any case. Presumably they might be resolved to join the fight in a less ambiguous war. Then again maybe they'd be gung-ho enough to have the fight over with that they'd actually pull NATO into the war against its better judgement at that point.

Looking at the very exposed position Czechoslovakia is in, I think it might be possible they would not be members of NATO at all, but neutral as Austria was OTL.

In that case, the West's options regarding the same sort of crisis in Hungary at the same time would be no different than OTL. Therefore the Soviet options leading up to it would be the same and we could expect Hungary to go much as OTL.
 
Part 3: Factories,Workers and Skoda

In 1948 Czechoslovakia recieved 389 million dollars through the Marshalll plan this money primarily went to boost industry. Slovakia, less industrially developed than Bohemia had many factories built and TS Martin, a Slovakian company sold tanks to places as far as Israel and other pro-US countries. President Benes adopted a policy of re-directing trade from the USSR and it allies to primarily Western countries such as France. The Czechoslovakian car sector also flourished Skoda came out with the the 1102 Tudor. The car sold all over Germany and Czechoslovakia. Tatra, another car manufacturer sued VW because the Beetle was based on a Tatra. Czechoslovakia was one of the worlds most heavily industrialised country's by the end on the 40's and was ready to move onto the next decade.
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In the 1940s Israel was not so much considered a US ally. Stalin championed its formation quite as much as Americans did, and the nation was politically dominated by the socialist party for quite some time--well after the 6-Day War of 1967 which is when the USA started to unambiguously support Israel. (Even then, the support was not unambiguous--on paper. On paper the State Department under Nixon took a very cautious position on Israel--it's just that in real life the Nixon Administration often bypassed its own State Department and just sent Henry Kissinger to negotiate the real policies:p). In the Suez Crisis of 1956, Israel was allied with Britain and France against Egypt, but Eisenhower pulled the plug on the whole adventure when he threatened sanctions in the form of stopping oil subsidies to both the European powers and demanded they withdraw and settle the crisis through the UN.

None of this means Czechoslovakia couldn't sell weapons to Israel of course. France and Britain certainly could, why not the Czechs? I imagine most Americans of the time wished Israel quite well, and certainly Stalin's hopes for the place becoming a Soviet ally were soon dashed.

I just felt I needed to point out, the close US/Israel relationship evolved much later. It might be different in this timeline of course, but unlikely, because the US had the ambition of good relations with Arab powers too and so liked to present itself as a fair arbiter between them. It was only gradually that Israeli success in defending themselves drew US public opinion and leadership into choosing the Israeli side when forced to pick one. For it to have been otherwise here before 1950, the US would pay a price in terms of influence in the Islamic world.
 
I think you can safely add to your list of Czech exports the locomotives (Skoda works have produced them in quantities since 1920), airplanes and airplane engines (Avia and Walter's works on the Prague's outskirts, Aero at Vodochody near Prague), electronics (Elektra, the Czech subsidiaries of Philips, Telefunken, etc.), and even mass-produced tramcars. Also, by 1948, Skoda and Tatra weren't the only major car or lorry manufacturers in Czechoslovakia. There was Praga (heavily concentrated on lorries and buses, but still churning out some cars in the late 40s even in OTL), and, if I remember that correctly, Aero and Waltrovka weren't completely out of the car business between the war and the communist takeover IOTL.

On the other hand, I am not sure whether there was enough market for all that bulk of industrial production. The internal market might become saturated rather quickly, the external ones are reduced due to the Iron Curtain (Poland, Austria, Hungary, the Balkans and Romania are pretty much off-limits).
France doesn't seem to me a good outlet either, especially in the years before the European Coal and Steel Community. Why let in industrial goods from abroad and risk unemployment with all the social unrest it entails? The 1948 was nasty enough for France even without that.
What if the trade flow is re-oriented to the West Germany instead? Of course, there might be some grumbling about supplying the enemy, but business is business.

Don't forget the uranium deposits at Jachymov, too. It wouldn't surprise me if the Western-world Czechoslovakia becomes a pioneer in the domain of civilian nuclear power and a net energy exporter. Anyway, the Jachymov deposits are a prized asset for the leading Western powers.

As for the Slovak industrialisation: IOTL, it heavily depended on the raw materials from the USSR (the steel works at Kosice and the oil refineries on the outskirts of Bratislava are the major examples). You should either think of the alternate supply routes or have put the accent on completely different sectors of industry to be developed.

There is yet another, almost unrelated question: What with Carpathian Ruthenia? OTL the (not yet Communist) Czechoslovak government has swallowed its annexation by the Soviets, but here the situation might be wildly different, creating a sore point in Czechoslovak-Soviet relations and a possible hotbed of conflicts. Or it might be not.
 
There is yet another, almost unrelated question: What with Carpathian Ruthenia? OTL the (not yet Communist) Czechoslovak government has swallowed its annexation by the Soviets, but here the situation might be wildly different, creating a sore point in Czechoslovak-Soviet relations and a possible hotbed of conflicts. Or it might be not.
I think you can forget Ruthenia. POD here is somewhere around 1946, after election. Ruthenia was for Soviets done deal directly after they liberated territory. They didn't allow Czechoslovak officials perform their duty on this teritories and at the end pushed for plebiscite which outcome was clear, as it were Soviets who organized it. In 1946 there was already nothing to change on outcome. Unless Czechoslovak army was able to push Soviets out of there, which it wasn't in position to do.
 
czechoslovakia was the first country to sell weapons to izrael in reality i do not see problem with them selling weapons in this tl...if anything czechs always had very democratic approach to seling weapons to anybody as long they got cash for it...they were selling weapons to both south vietnam and north vietnam and even manufactured agent orange for the yanks
as to the export destinations they did sell lot of stuff in middle east and africa in 1930s they did lot of business in india etc
even the british aircraft carrier Ark Royal was build out of czech steal.
not to mention weapons exports to latin america
 
Part 4: Into the 50s

The Cold War got hotter during the Berlin Blockade which Stalin finally lifted in 1949. Jan Masaryk, The foreign minister who was tipped to be the next President urged Stalin to stop the blockade. Stalin frustrated at Czechoslovakia for slipping out of his control, tightened his grip on the other eastern block countries. In Austria the communists came to power led by Johann Koplenig. Soviet troops stayed in the country until 1950 to "stabilise" the country, in reality they were cementing its place as a communist state. The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in 1949 between 12 countries. Czechoslovakia refused to sign the treaty becuase it wanted to be nuetral, though Benes and the foreign minister pushed for the country to become more and more Western. In August the first Soviet Nuclear bomb was detonated scaring the Czech and Slovak public.

In 1950 the Korean War broke out, it would test the newly established UN. Czechoslovkia gave medical and combat support to the South Koreans. 1950 was also the year which Czechoslovakia held its Presidental elections.Although many candidates ran, including the communist Klement Gottwald, Jan Masaryk, the independent and son of the former president won by a landslide. Edvard Benes died a month after the elections, he was remembered by many of doing what he could to help the country. Under Jan Masaryk the Czech Republic would drift further towards NATO membership and a bright future.
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President Jan Masaryk
 
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Part 2: Expulsion and the Marshall Plan
There were some massacres and about 250000 people were expelled by 1948. Some Sudeten Germans were not expelled these included anti-fascists and those married to ethnic Czechs.

I guess you didn't intend to, but I am fairly certain that you omitted a "0" here.
 
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