2018 Presidential Election

Regarding the reference to the unemployment rate in the SOTU, are macroeconomic statistics and conditions basically the same as OTL from the summer of 1985 to the present day?
 
1709036894915.jpeg

Tuesday February 27th, 2024

Scottish Greens on verge of historic split


The Scottish Greens who have three MSP's in the Scottish parliament, and who support the incumbent SNP administration could very well split apart at the parties spring conference which takes place in Edinburgh this weekend.

There have been growing tensions in the last few months between the party's two joint leaders Patrick Burley (who is an MSP elected via the additional member system for Glasgow), and Shannon Robertson who is not an MSP, and is the only Green Councilor serving on West Dunbartonshire Council. The tensions are growing that Burley is moving the party towards the SNP, and Robertson who believes the party must maintain its "party independence". There have also been disagreements over the 2021 decision to formally end "all cooperation" with the Green Party with England and Wales. (The Green party of England & Wales supports a "federal secular Republic", whilst the Scottish Greens support a "independent Scottish Republic").

Robertson believes as well that the party should remove it's support for the SNP due to its handling of the fundraising practices and the profits made by several prominent SNP donors and supporters since the controversial construction of the Droch Fhaol hydro-electric station which started in 2022. (Police Scotland is currently investigating the background and funding to the project).

The BBC understands that Robertson could lead a breakaway party (understood to be called "The Scottish Green Unionist Republican Party"), whilst supporters of Burley are planning to remove her as "joint leader" leaving Burley as sole leader.
 
Last edited:
The BBC understands that Robertson could lead a breakaway party (understood to be called "The Scottish Green Unionist Republican Party"), whilst supporters of Burley are planning to remove her as "joint leader" leaving Burley as sole leader.
That’s a mouthful and a half!
 
A unionist republican movement makes little sense to me. The fundamental reason Scotland and England came together was because they began sharing a monarch. Without the monarchy why stay together? An independent Kingdom of Scotland makes more sense than a "United Republic of Great Britain and Northern Ireland." In fact, in the event of such an unfortunate outcome Norhtern Ireland should just be absorbed into the Republic of Ireland.
 
A unionist republican movement makes little sense to me. The fundamental reason Scotland and England came together was because they began sharing a monarch. Without the monarchy why stay together? An independent Kingdom of Scotland makes more sense than a "United Republic of Great Britain and Northern Ireland." In fact, in the event of such an unfortunate outcome Norhtern Ireland should just be absorbed into the Republic of Ireland.
Welcome to Green politics in the United Kingdom!!
In both worlds the following is true:
  • Scottish Green's formed in 1990: Are a Scottish nationalist party, they are "left wing" and support Scottish independence. They are also believe an independent Scotland should be a Republic with an elected Head of Scotland. (The SNP in both world's favor a public referendum on the status of the Head of State after independence has been gained from the United Kingdom).
  • The Green Party of England & Wales was also formed in 1990: It is independent of the Scottish Greens. They are "left wing" but are a "Unionist Party" meaning they believe in the Union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (Wales, Scotland & NI remain part of the UK, until referendums in which they would support remain). They believe though the United Kingdom (as a whole should be reformed), with a replacement of the Monarchy. the House of lords by an elected President and elected Senate (by PR) without a referendum. The Church of England would lose it's power as basically the "national religion".
Hope this brief overview clears things up.
 
New page, new batch of governors. We've only got 10 left after this, which will probably mean two batches of five instead of the four apiece I've been doing.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Lists of United States Governors (1985-present)
AL • AK • AZARCA • CO • CTDE FLGA • HI • ID • ILIN • IA • KS • KY LA • ME • MDMAMIMN • MS • MO • MT • NE • NV • NHNJNMNYNC • ND • OHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVA • WA • WV • WI • WY
--------------------------------------------------------------
Governors of Iowa
39. 1983-1991: Terry Branstad (Republican)
Elections: 1982, 1986
40. 1991-1997: Lorraine Lindsay (Democratic)
Elections: 1990, 1994
41. 1997-1999: Peter Whalen (Democratic)
42. 1999-2003: Dan Ross (Republican)
Elections: 1998
43. 2003-2011: Laura Connolly (Democratic)
Elections: 2002, 2006
44. 2011-2019: Carl York (Republican)
Elections: 2010, 2014
45. 2019-2027: James Edwards (Democratic)
Elections: 2018, 2022

OTL record holder for the longest governorship Terry Branstad is only a mere two-termer ITTL, boxed in by Lindsay being established as resigning from the governorship to join the Senate (and the likely explanation that she ran in her second term rather than running in her first term). Her immediate successors, Whalen & Ross, are the only new creations and her leap to the Senate is the only intra-term vacancy.

Iowa doesn't have term limits for their governors, so incumbent James Edwards could run for a third term in 2026 if he wanted to.

--------------------------------
Governors of Maine
70. 1979-1987: Joseph Brennan (Democratic)
Elections: 1978, 1982
71. 1987-1993: Charles Langhart (Republican)
Elections: 1986, 1988
72. 1993-1997: Stan Walsh (Independent)
Elections: 1992
73. 1997-2005: David Blanche (Democratic)
Elections: 1996, 2000
74. 2005-2013: Lionel Thompson (Democratic)
Elections: 2004, 2008
75. 2013-2019: Paris Stray (Democratic)
Elections: 2012, 2016
76. 2019-2025: James Adamson (Republican)
Elections: 2020

Maine is another state that switched its elections as a result of the presidential cycle being realigned, and had a gap that needed to be filled (although not as large as others since Blanche was established as appointing senator Stephen Wilson to the Senate in 1997). My spin goes like this: Maine voters ratified an amendment re-orienting the terms alongside the 1986 election, which new governor-elect Charles Langhart (a new creation) supported once he realized that he would have been eligible for two four-year terms in addition to the truncated two-year term he won in 1986. Langhart was re-elected in 1988, but a combination of the early 1990s recession, being tied to Owen Lassiter at a lull in his popularity in the region and the Democrats picking an abysmal candidate resulted in the narrow election of businessman Stan Walsh (the second of two new creations) as an independent.

Walsh declined to run for re-election once his eventual successor, Blanche, announced his intention to run in 1996 and Maine spent the next two decades electing Democrats. The only intra-term change since 1985 was Paris Stray resigning to become Ambassador to the United Nations in 2019 (she was promoted to Secretary of State in 2023), being replaced by Senate President James Adamson (Maine does not have a lieutenant governor) who won a term of his own in 2020 as the first Republican to win a gubernatorial election in Maine since the Newman administration.

Maine limits its governors to two elected four-year terms in a row- since Adamson was only elected to one term himself, in addition to serving the final two years of Stray's second term, he is eligible to run for re-election this year. If he wins, however, he cannot run in 2028.

--------------------------------​

Governors of Mississippi
59. 1984-1988: William Allain (Democratic)
Elections: 1983
60. 1988-1992: Ray Clinton (Republican)
Elections: 1987
61. 1992-1996: Rob Ballard (Democratic)
Elections: 1991
62. 1996-2004: Steven Hodder (Republican)
Elections: 1995, 1999
63. 2004-2012: Bill Williams (Republican)
Elections: 2003, 2007
64. 2012-2016: Katie Hodder-Shaw (Republican)
Elections: 2011
65. 2016-2024: Alan Fisk (Democratic)
Elections: 2015, 2019
66. 2024-2028: Jonas Watts (Republican)
Elections: 2023

Despite the state constitution being amended in 1986 to allow governors to succeed themselves once, Mississippians had to wait until the fourth governor eligible to succeed himself finally did it. Hodder, of course, is the father of Katie Hodder-Shaw, which might be TTL's first pair of father & daughter governors (beating out the Bartlets by three years).

Clinton & Ballard are the only new creations, and like OTL Mississippi hasn't had any intra-term vacancies in the governor's mansion since 1946.

Incumbent governor Jonas Watts is eligible for re-election in 2027. But if he wins, Mississippi has a two-term lifetime limit, meaning he will join former governors Hodder, Williams and Fisk as being ineligible to run again.

--------------------------------
Governors of Wyoming
25. 1975-1987: Edgar Herschler (Democratic)
Elections: 1974, 1978, 1982
26. 1987-1995: Tom Jennings (Republican)
Elections: 1986, 1990
27. 1995-2001: Jack Mager (Republican)
Elections: 1994, 1996
28. 2001-2009: Rick Vincent (Republican)
Elections: 2000, 2004
29. 2009-2017: Brad Elton (Republican)
Elections: 2008, 2012
30. 2017-2025: Simon Watts (Republican)
Elections: 2016, 2020

It should come as no surprise that Wyoming hasn't elected a Democrat to be governor in decades (while IOTL they had the utterly insane result of the Democratic governor winning every single county in 2006). Mager and Vincent are new creations, and Mager drew the short straw of being the first governor to be bound both by term limits (as IOTL established after a 1992 referendum) and the realignment of the gubernatorial election calendar that meant his first term was only two years.

Wyoming limits its governors to serving eight years in a 16-year period, so current governor Simon Watts isn't eligible to run for re-election this year.
 
Welcome to Green politics in the United Kingdom!!
In both worlds the following is true:
  • Scottish Green's formed in 1990: Are a Scottish nationalist party, they are "left wing" and support Scottish independence. They are also believe an independent Scotland should be a Republic with an elected Head of Scotland. (The SNP in both world's favor a public referendum on the status of the Head of State after independence has been gained from the United Kingdom).
  • The Green Party of England & Wales was also formed in 1990: It is independent of the Scottish Greens. They are "left wing" but are a "Unionist Party" meaning they believe in the Union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (Wales, Scotland & NI remain part of the UK, until referendums in which they would support remain). They believe though the United Kingdom (as a whole should be reformed), with a replacement of the Monarchy. the House of lords by an elected President and elected Senate (by PR) without a referendum. The Church of England would lose it's power as basically the "national religion".
Hope this brief overview clears things up.
Sincerest thanks Mark, but forgive me if I wish to hear no more of this republican nonsense. GSTK!
 
Tc9ooaA.png


White House announces transition at Treasury Department

Thursday, February 29th, 2024

The White House has announced that President of the New York Federal Reserve Daniel Schubert will be President Seaborn's nominee to take over the Treasury Department, marking the last of the major Cabinet departments that will change leadership from the beginning of the president's first term.

On Tuesday, current Secretary of the Treasury Meredith Payne announced her resignation, effective at the end of March. Stating her "tremendous gratitude" for serving in the role for five years, the first African-American Treasury secretary said that she would return to her home town of Detroit "and rest for a few months" before deciding her next career move.

Payne, a former Democratic congresswoman, weathered the storm of the 2020-2021 recession ably, to the point where she was reportedly rumored to be a long-shot contender for the vice presidential nomination in 2022. She leaves office with most economic indicators showing a strong economy, with low unemployment rates and steady growth in the stock market.

The likely person to replace her, by contrast, is a career banker who reportedly did not register as a Democrat until last year. Schubert, who has served as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York beginning in 2017, originally started his financial career on Wall Street, working for Morgan Stanley. Following the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s, however, Schubert joined the Federal Reserve, working in various roles until being selected to head the largest of the nation's 12 Federal Reserve Banks.

With Democrats in control of the Senate and Wall Street appearing to react positively to news of Schubert's nomination, most observers believe that he will not face a difficult confirmation fight in the Senate in spite of criticism of his nomination from some progressive Democrats, including congresswoman Naomi Herrera-Rodriguez (D-NY), over Schubert's previous work for Morgan Stanley and other ties to the country's top financial investment firms.


BSDbcDKl.png

Payne (l) and Schubert (r) (photo credits: Regina King, Greg Germann)
 
1706887128623-jpeg.885616

Friday March 1st, 2024

The latest UK polling, with undecided voters removed:

(+/- since February 2nd poll)

Labour: 40% (+1)
Conservative: 22% (-1)
NPP: 20% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 9% (-1)
SNP: 3% (n/c)
Green: 2% (n/c)
Socialist Alliance: 1% (n/c)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (n/c)
Others: 2% (n/c)
 
Last edited:
1706887128623-jpeg.885616

Friday March 1st, 2024

The latest UK polling, with undecided voters removed:

(+/- since February 2nd poll)

Labour: 40% (+1)
Conservative: 22% (-1)
NPP: 20% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 9% (-1)
SNP: 3% (n/c)
Green: 2% (n/c)
Socialist Alliance: 1% (n/c)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (n/c)
Others: 2% (n/c)
I wonder if the NPP will collapse the government given their polling. Makes sense for them to push for an election whilst they’re riding high.
 
I wonder if the NPP will collapse the government given their polling. Makes sense for them to push for an election whilst they’re riding high.
Tories polling a statistical tie with a farther right third party is incredibly embarrassing for them. They should really just end the suffering.
 
So both parties now are going to be using proportional delegate selection instead of winner take all in the 2026 primaries?
No.

Democrats are going to use proportional representation with a bonus for the candidate who gets the most votes, so it's not pure PR like what the Democrats use IRL.

Republicans simply aren't going to require states to use winner-take-all, and will allow them to use different systems like PR, winner-take-most (where a candidate can get all the delegates if s/he wins at least 50%+1 votes, otherwise it's by PR) or continue to use winner-take-all if they want.
 
1709036894915-jpeg.890952

Monday March 4th, 2024

Scottish Greens confirm historic split

As expected over the weekend the Scottish Green's have split into two parties, following the decision of the party to vote for the removal of one of the parties two leaders, Shannon Robertson on Saturday. Robertson then lead her faction of the party out of the hall before a few hours later announcing that her supporters (including fourteen Councilors from a total of thirty six) had formed the "Scottish Green Unionist Party". None of the Scottish Green's three MSP's have joined the breakaway.

The new party elected Robertson as "interim leader" until a full election could be held. Robertson also said that that the party would make representations to the Green party of England & Wales to establish " cooperation" with the sister party across the border, the ending of which in 2021 had been a cause of the friction within the "Scottish Greens".
 
With the final ten governors lists, I've saved the ones I had to fill in the most holes with for last. Somehow, I also managed to pick states that didn't have their electoral calendars reset by the presidential cycle shift to post in this penultimate installment.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Lists of United States Governors (1985-present)
AL • AK • AZARCA • CO • CTDE FLGA • HI • ID • ILIN IA • KS • KY LAMEMDMAMIMNMSMO • MT • NE • NV • NHNJNMNYNC • ND • OHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVA • WA • WV • WIWY
--------------------------------------------------------------​

Governors of Colorado
38. 1975-1987: Dick Lamm (Democratic)
Elections: 1974, 1978, 1982
39. 1987-1999: Duane Snyder (Republican)
Elections: 1986, 1990, 1994
40. 1999-2007: Ben Newell (Democratic)
Elections: 1998, 2002
41. 2007-2011: Jack Wallace (Democratic)
Elections: 2006
42. 2011-2019: Oliver Moseley (Republican)
Elections: 2010, 2014
43. 2019-2027: Lance McKey (Democratic)
Elections: 2018, 2022

Thanks to Colorado not fitting in term limits until 1990, I only needed one new creation (Snyder) to fill out the Centennial State's list of chief executives.

As you can infer, Colorado enacted term limits in 1990 that limits all governors who took office on or after that date to serving only two consecutive terms (Snyder's first term was grandfathered in, hence him being able to run in 1994). So incumbent Lance McKey cannot run again in 2026, but can in 2030 if he so desires.

--------------------------------​

Governors of Hawaii
03. 1974-1986: George Ariyoshi (Democratic)
Elections: 1974, 1978, 1982
04. 1986-1994: Thomas Cruz (Democratic)
Elections: 1986, 1990
05. 1994-1998: Daniel Lago (Republican)
Elections: 1994
06. 1998-2002: Rick Maka'kua (Democratic)
Elections: 1998
07. 2002-2010: Lorraine Larvey (Democratic)
Elections: 2002, 2006
–-. 2010-2011: Shane Burns (Democratic)
08. 2011-2018: Joanne White (Democratic)
Elections: 2010, 2014
09. 2018-2026: Shane Burns (Democratic)
Elections: 2018, 2022

Lago and Cruz are the only new creations here. I figured Hawaii would have at least one Republican governor at some point, so I had Lago winning an upset on Owen Lassiter's coattails during his re-election beatdown on Roland Pierce.

Hawaii accidentally created a bit of a conundrum once I realized that their governors start their terms in December following the election, rather than in the January after. Since Joanne White had been listed as having left the Senate in 2011, not 2010, that meant I had to retcon an explanation. Basically, White decides to wait until her Senate term expires before taking the oath of office as governor, meaning her lieutenant governor (and future successor) Shane Burns takes office as acting governor for the month in between the gubernatorial term starting and the 112th Congress being sworn in.

Luckily for Burns, he was able to serve two terms as governor in his own right, since Hawaii's term limit laws only affect people elected to the office as governor. Unfortunately for him, they prohibit being elected to more that two terms in a row, so he can't run again in 2026.

--------------------------------​

Governors of Nevada
25. 1983-1991: Richard Bryan (Democratic)
Elections: 1982, 1986
26. 1991-1999: Ken Gibson (Democratic)
Elections: 1990, 1994
27. 1999-2007: Jim Sulliven (Republican)
Elections: 1998, 2002
28. 2007-2011: Dan Carrington (Republican)
Elections: 2006
29. 2011-2019: Randy Broughton (Democratic)
Elections: 2010, 2014
30. 2019-2027: Dalton Creel (Democratic)
Elections: 2018, 2022

Gibson and Sulliven are the only new creations for Nevada. OTL governor Richard Bryan serves both of the terms he was elected to *here* (IRL he resigned in 1989 to take up his Senate seat, but obviously didn't ITTL).

Nevada limits its governors to two terms, so Dalton Creel and all other living governors (sans Carrington) are ineligible to run in 2026.

--------------------------------​

Governors of North Dakota
29. 1985-1992: Gus Olson (Democratic-NPL)
Elections: 1984, 1988
30. 1992-2004: Don Tillman (Republican)
Elections: 1992, 1996, 2000
31. 2004-2012: George Simms (Republican)
Elections: 2004, 2008
32. 2012-2019: Jamie Muller (Republican)
Elections: 2012, 2016
33. 2019-2025: Sandra Middleton (Republican)
Elections: 2020

A reminder that North Dakota's Democratic affiliate (like its superior eastern neighbor) has a unique name thanks to merging with a left-wing third party in the mid-20th century.

The first two governors on this list (Olson and Tillman) are the only new creations. There's actually an intra-term vacancy in this set of lists, and it's with Muller resigning to take up his Senate seat, promoting Middleton to the governorship.

North Dakota voters approved a constitutional amendment limiting governors to two elected terms, but does not count any terms served before January 1, 2023 in the calculation. So Middleton is eligible both for re-election this year, and a potential third election (if she wins this year) in 2028. But assuming she wins both contests, she will be the first person barred from serving as governor under the new limits.

--------------------------------​

Governors of West Virginia
29. 1977-1985: Jay Rockefeller (Democratic)
Elections: 1976, 1980
30. 1985-1989: Calvin Hall Jr. (Republican)
Elections: 1984
31. 1989-1997: Tim Johnson (Democratic)
Elections: 1988, 1992
33. 1997-2001: Jane Whittingham (Democratic)
Elections: 1996
34. 2001-2009: Ray Sullivan (Republican)
Elections: 2000, 2004
35. 2009-2017: Stan Hale (Democratic)
Elections: 2008, 2012
36. 2017-2025: Jim McDowell (Republican)
Elections: 2016, 2020

Hall and Johnson are the only new creations for the more occidental of the Virginias.

Oddly, TTL's West Virginia, at least on a gubernatorial level, has been less Democratic than the same period of time IRL- between 1985 & 2024 ITTL, the GOP has only won the West Virginia governorship twice (1994 & 2020), although current governor Jim Justice was first elected as a Democrat then switched back to being a Republican after about eight months, so take that for what you will.

West Virginia doesn't allow governors to serve more than two terms consecutively, so Jim McDowell is ineligible to run for a third term this year.
 
Top