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  1. Mao Zedong dies in 1956

    The rotation of leadership doesn't happen until after the death of Mao; Deng Xiaoping tried to create a regular order/system for leader succession, which was an endemic problem and a catalyst for many problems during the late 70s, and the 10 year rotation of Presidents was one of his norms that...

  2. Mao Zedong dies in 1956

    I disagree on the probability of reform, though I do agree the Sino-Soviet split is likely to still occur. Eith Liu Shaoqi's own Soviet leanings and similarities to Khrushchev (there's a reason Mao hated both of them, as bureaucrats), the severity and scale of the split without Mao leading the...

  3. Mao Zedong dies in 1956

    The ROC? I mean, possibly? But I think within period, without the fallout of the Great Leap Forward or the chaos of the Cultural Revolution, Liu Shaoqi would be relatively successful in creating a highly authoritarian, bureaucratized, and highly intrusive system on the Soviet model, and the...

  4. Mao Zedong dies in 1956

    Never becomes a major power player in intra-CCP politics in the first place. His rise through the military was facilitated by Peng Dehuai's purge at the Lushan conference in 1959 led by Mao on very spurious grounds (in an effort to strike at Liu Shaoqi), and Mao's immediate promotion of him...

  5. Mao Zedong dies in 1956

    So let's start off by considering the immediate impact. The death of Mao would specifically mean mean several key policies would change, effectively butterflying the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution (and almost certainly Deng's economic reforms). First, the agricultural reform debate...

  6. Mao Zedong dies in 1956

    Bookmarking this thread for a thorough analysis/speculation of the situation, but long story short, EVERY CHANGES. The economic and political history of China is entirely rewritten, Mao goes down in Chinese history as a brilliant martyr-saint, and there are so many butterflies. Taking my grad...

  7. German victory WW1 - How different from Nazi Germany would it actually be?

    Indeed, but they didn't initially plan to do any of those before the onset of the war. The premeditation (and the treatment of the Belgians) was what made it a particularly good propaganda piece against the Germans. In that sense, they had functionally ceded any sort of moral high ground, if you...

  8. German victory WW1 - How different from Nazi Germany would it actually be?

    How I see it, it's one thing to ask for suggestions of terms to sound out what different parties find reasonable, it's another to provide a list and pass them out to sound out various interest groups in Germany. The second indicates for me that the government would like to have gone for that...

  9. German victory WW1 - How different from Nazi Germany would it actually be?

    On the Septemberprogramm, I am aware it was not official government policy. However, it is a damning look at the goals and aims of the kaiserreich government, and explicitly shows lots German names for WW1 were not defensive, but bent on creating a new European order centered around Germany...

  10. German victory WW1 - How different from Nazi Germany would it actually be?

    Power Transition Theory, and state classification of different states, has nothing to do with how aggressive a country is. Status quo powers can be just as, if not more, aggressive as revisionist powers, as they seek to curtail a challenge/threat to their own positions within the geopolitical...

  11. German victory WW1 - How different from Nazi Germany would it actually be?

    Kaiserreich TLs are quite bad agreed, but I disagree in that France would necessarily be Finlandized. It is a potential outcome, but does not prevent radicalized governments from coming to power in France (the 3rd Republic being a notoriously unstable and increasingly radicalized affair in the...

  12. German victory WW1 - How different from Nazi Germany would it actually be?

    Potentially, but I think unlikely. There are fundamentally different geopolitical and geo-economic realities at play here that make it unlikely for Germany to pursue a "liberal" hegemony, and instead a more traditionally militaristic, coercive one. First, the United States is on another...

  13. German victory WW1 - How different from Nazi Germany would it actually be?

    It's difficult to consider the counterfactual, as I am personally not well-versed in the domestic Germany political forces that may constrain it's geopolitical aims and goals. However, one need only look at the Septemberprogramm, drafted in the early weeks of the war to see the true scope of...

  14. Until Every Drop of Blood Is Paid: A More Radical American Civil War

    Lunacy. France will not get involved without being explicitly aligned with British policy, it requires reversing the foreign policy goals and objectives of the 2nd Empire fundamentally, not to mention the Mexico quagmire. France will support the CSA when Britain does, not a moment earlier, and...

  15. Until Every Drop of Blood Is Paid: A More Radical American Civil War

    ...what does that have anything to do with anything, besides being mildly/moderately racist? Insects? Bruh. They're not a staple anywhere in China besides during lean, starvation times, e.g. the Cultural Revolution. Rice agriculture, found primarily in the South along the Yangtze, is incredibly...

  16. Until Every Drop of Blood Is Paid: A More Radical American Civil War

    Many reasons, but using rice as your carb staple has benefits in terms of total yield vs wheat or maize.

  17. Until Every Drop of Blood Is Paid: A More Radical American Civil War

    Small point of order: the issue isn't the river, the Patapsco is easily fordable if it isn't flooded, moreso the river valley itself which is surprisingly steep on both sides. That's what lends the defensive edge.

  18. Until Every Drop of Blood Is Paid: A More Radical American Civil War

    Where though? The next target for a Union advance is Harper's Ferry, and that's basically another theater away as far as the Confederates in Batltimore are concerned. South of Baltimore, south of the Patuxent, the terrain is quite flat. The Confederate position in MD depends on at least 1...

  19. Until Every Drop of Blood Is Paid: A More Radical American Civil War

    The loss of Baltimore deals a major blow to the Confederacy. It leaves them with very little of strategic value to defend outside of DC, besides using MD as a defensive buffer against an offensive across the Potomac or at DC proper. The Patapsco Valley serves as an excellent defensive position...

  20. Until Every Drop of Blood Is Paid: A More Radical American Civil War

    Ah, I apologize. I thought you meant as a long term strategy. If the immediate goal is repulsing the Union push on Baltimore, that makes sense.
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