The eagle's left head

[Asasyn13]

A few questions/comments/suggestions regarding the new chapter:

1. Does Alexandros have any siblings? I was wondering, because his parents have a good marriage, and it's the Middle Ages, so shouldn't there be other Lascarids?
2. Will the increasingly frequent visits of Cuman mercenaries to southern Italy somehow influence the political or ethnic situation of the region? Because in my opinion there is a real chance of an episode related to this and that would be quite interesting.
3. In my opinion, Despotate is, after all, a bit too good at fighting a two-front war. Although their opponents are in the same, if not worse, situation, Syracuse, apart from the growing debt, does not seem to be in much danger.
4. If known, the case of embezzlement of the donation for the renovation of Hagia Sophia should be publicized and properly used by Theodore to emphasize the importance of the church union with Rome. Not that anything, but you have to remember - Syracuse was never treated properly by the popes and their representatives. So among Sicilians, and especially some of the clergy, there are certainly voices in favor of being Orthodox rather than Greek Catholic. Something that probably does not fit the political and dynastic plans of the Lascarids.
5. Do the Serbs have a naval fleet? Because I can see how, at the instigation of Venice, Dusan would try to take Corfu. After all, the archipelago is like Thessaloniki - a convenient bridgehead for attacking the flank of his tsardom.
6. The capture of Taranto and Thessaloniki virtually guarantees that the Despotate will soon take over their entire regions. And this, in turn, means that Sicily will become the first (if not the dominant) power in the eastern Mediterranean.
7. Joanna should now either murder her husband and try to reach an agreement with Louis of Hungary, or flee north to the Papal States. The Pope is favorable to her, so she should find shelter in Rome. It would be much easier to temporarily withdraw from the war, hoping to regroup and strengthen forces while the two rivals most likely threw themselves into combat with each other, than to continue to fight honestly helplessly.
8. I am surprised at this decision of the Republic of St. Mark. I expected them to join the war against Sicily as an ally of Naples or even the Serbs. Access to the Black Sea is certainly important to their economy, but the possibility of some other country controlling the Strait of Otranto is much more important. Not to mention that the current domination by the Despotate of the Aegean and its refusal to grant Venetian merchants any privileges should raise a few alarm bells for the Doge.
9. As for the third war between Venice and Genoa itself, I think it should have significant butterflies. Namely, this will be the last in a series of conflicts between the two merchant republics. I imagine its course as follows: either Venice will quickly win and Genoa's possessions will be partitioned (Corsica to Aragon, the rest to Byzantium, the city itself is subordinated to Milan, in return Venice receives new trade privileges), or Genoa drags it out and Sicily and Hungary enter the game and then a similar situation with Venice (they are obviously redistributing the territory + maybe Sardinia for Genoa?).

Finally, thank you for the update and I hope for another one soon

 

[Quinkana]

Wait, a daughter of Anna Hohenstauffen? Or a daughter of Alexandros I and Maria Tarchaneiotes?

So Michael Philanthropenos (The Current Katepano) is married to a daughter of the line of Vatatzes? I must have missed that when I last skimmed the Timeline for this, is there a reference to certain decade where I can go look to see if a name was mentioned? Thanks!!

I don't remember that, but it would make sense if that's the case, and further strengthen my guess on the Philantropenos being the ones that would take over if the main line dies.

I just hope that Blanche and Alexandros II have a bunch of children so we get a few cadet branches.

Syracuse, December 25th, 1349

Between the ongoing war and fear of further outbreaks of the plague, and perhaps a bit of the by now famed Vatatzes thriftiness, back a century ago Ioannis III had managed to buy his wife a crown just from the proceeds of the eggs produced in the royal estates, the marriage ceremony between Alexandros and Blanche of Navarre in the cathedral of Syracuse had been relatively subdued. Blanche had first been baptized Agnes, a common occurrence for Latin princesses married in the east, although notably Agnes was almost a direct transliteration of her name in Greek. But the young couple appeared to be taking to each other well. Blanche, now Agnes, had spent the years of her betrothal to learn Greek and Sicilian, and was taking the court and commoners of Sicily by storm between beauty and good manners and this for certain was including her husband. But happily this appeared to be mutual, after all Alexandros had inherited his father's charm and his mother's good character.

Blanche (now Agnes) and Alexandros II finally marrying is a good thing, as it does strengthen the Despotate's standing in the European kingdoms. After all, it's going to come down to Alexandros II and Blanche to continue the Lascarid line, and the burden of ruling will also fall on them eventually. Blanche/Agnes seems to be good in otl, so let's hope she'd do well ittl too!

Constantinople, April 1350

Workers were busy at work making extensive repairs on Hagia Sophia, financed by a donation of Grand duke Symeon of Muskovy. Not all of Symeon's money had gone to their intended task as Ioannis VI had helped himself to part to finance hiring Turkish mercenaries to fight the Serbs instead. It had not been the only move of the emperor against Dusan, as on his instigation patriarch Callistus would excommunicate him upon rising to the patriarchate in June.

I do wonder where would Ioannis VI would send these Turkish mercenaries ittl. Since Theodore and Dusan is there I doubt Kantakozenos would send his mercenaries there ittl, so would he send the turks to just attack Serbia from the east?

Him using the funds given to him to repair the Hagia Sophia to recruit mercenaries is a bad look tho, since the funds are supposed to be used for the Hagia Sophia, especially when the money is used in vain when Dusan eventually gives up on fighting the Lascarids.

Thessaloniki, June 1350

The great city was in a bad way threatened by the Serbs, shunned by the empire as it refused to accept either Ioannis VI or Hesychasm, and ravaged by the plague. Things had been bad enough that one of the two archons of the city Andreas Palaiologos, perhaps bribed by Dusan even tried to deliver the city to the Serbs. But this was immediately opposed by the other archon Alexios Lascaris Metochites and the citizenry rose up in revolt against surrender to the Serbs. Ioannis VI was quick to show up and try to take advantage of the situation to reclaim the city. But he was not the only one to do so as Alexandros Doukas Lascaris upon receiving news the city was about to surrender to Dusan would show up as well at the head of a dozen galleys to try to prevent this. Between the two the people and boule of Thessaloniki would proclaim for Alexandros and his father.

Thessaloniki proclaiming for Alexandros II is defo a very important thing for history ittl. It shows that the despotate is basically a lot stronger than the empire, considering how the actions of Kantakozenos means nothing compared to Alexandros II's show of strength. I'd think that Kantakozenos would be regretting his choice to make Alexandros II despot as Alexandros II is actively tearing his empire away from him.

Also, the despotate gaining the second city of the Empire is huge. They control one of the most important cities in the Aegean Sea, and a lot of trade would go through them, especially as Despotate rule would attract traders not affiliated with Venice or the enemies of the Lascarids.

Aversa, July 1350

Much to the frustration of Louis of Hungary the garrison, under Giacomo Pignataro had held up for months despite nearly the entire Hungarian army besieging it. But finally Pignataro had been forced to surrender allowing Louis to advance against his namesake in Naples. There Joanna had entertained though of escaping to her French holdings but Louis of Taranto had dissuaded her from doing so. The Sicilians were already reprising Roger de Lauria two generations earlier and after sizing Ischia were using it to blockade Naples. With Sicilian galleys patrolling outside Joanna had been forced to go by the plan of her husband. The regno would be defended against both the Greeks and the Hungarians if for no other reason because Joanna could not hope to safely make her escape.

tbf with the only way out for Joanna being to be smuggled out I think she's prob going to be stuck in Naples for good and for ill. After all leaving by sea probably means fighting the Lascarid navy, and the Lascarid navy just ripped the Angevin navy to shreds.

Joanna's prob going to be brought to Hungary alongside Louis if they're not killed on Louis' orders ittl.

If Joanna and co are captured in Hungary, I'd think it'd make resistance a lot harder for the ppl in Naples since they have no unified leader if Louis of Hungary didn't release them from prison. While I think Louis of Hungary would eventually give up on Naples, I think he could still imprison Joanna and her husband in Hungary, and result in a much more brutal post-robertian anarchy as no king would be present for some time in the regno.

Venice, August 1350

It was a troubling year for the Serenissima. The Lascarids had captured Corfu and had now invaded Terre Di Otranto, were Taranto had already thrown its gates open to Theodore the previous month and his army and navy were quickly gainting ground, Venetian spies wrote the entire province was likely to fall before the end of the year. While despots of Sicily had maintained correct relations with the republic for the past two generations and had even found common ground in battling piracy, relations were jut that correct. Alexandros and after him Ioannis and Theodore had kept brisk trade going and their ports open to Venetian merchants they had steadfastly refused to give either to Venice or Genoa any of the trading exceptions so common in the east. On the contrary they had placed somewhat lower dues on their own merchants compared to foreign ones and actively encouraged them, particularly traders from Messina and Monemvasia. If one coupled this with the destruction of the Latin statelets in the Cyclades and Theodore helping out the Hungarians the previous year letting the Sicilians get securely established on both sides of the straits of Otranto was a threat. But the republic also had to deal with a much more immediate threat as Genoa had tried to place a stranglehold on the lucrative Black sea trade by blockading the Bosporus and the Kerch straits. Dealing with Theodore would have to wait for now as Venice declared war on Genoa. By the end of the year it would be joined in its war by Peter IV of Aragon and Ioannis VI.

As per usual here hmm...

It's only the Lascarids that's not present bc they're fighting two wars at the same time.

I see Peter IV of Aragon and Venice dragging the Lascarid navy into the conflict eventually, since they both have different reasons for wanting to bringing the Despotate down, but I think the navy of the Lascarids and Genoa should be able to stave them off.

Lascarid gains in the regno like Taranto and in other regions such as Thessaloniki and Corfu is really good for the Lascarids, and as they move to take Aquila I think Venice will feel really pressured by the movements of the Lascarids...

Thessaly, October 1350

The campaign season was nearing to its close. No great battle had taken place. The Serbs had gained some more ground securing Trikala. But the Sicilian army was also intact still in the field and not particularly smaller than the Serb one. Alexandros and Michael Philanthropenos had 15,000 men under arms. Dusan had 20,000. Till the Sicilian army got decisively defeated Dusan would still need to have the better part of his army tied down in Thessaly...

I'm not surprised that the Lascarid army managed to hold on, and I'd think that Dusan would have the pressure to defeat the lascarid army in detail as he needs the breakthrough so that his vassals would continue the war.

A few questions/comments/suggestions regarding the new chapter:
Does Alexandros have any siblings? I was wondering, because his parents have a good marriage, and it's the Middle Ages, so shouldn't there be other Lascarids?

No, Adrienne having a child is half a miracle bc she got raped by millutin when she was five... the birth was hard on her too.

Will the increasingly frequent visits of Cuman mercenaries to southern Italy somehow influence the political or ethnic situation of the region? Because in my opinion there is a real chance of an episode related to this and that would be quite interesting.

it'd be cool if that happened, having a cuman conquerer who's allied to the lascarids that would serve the lascarids well. A more permanent solution for the Lascarids' northern neighbour would serve them well...

If known, the case of embezzlement of the donation for the renovation of Hagia Sophia should be publicized and properly used by Theodore to emphasize the importance of the church union with Rome. Not that anything, but you have to remember - Syracuse was never treated properly by the popes and their representatives. So among Sicilians, and especially some of the clergy, there are certainly voices in favor of being Orthodox rather than Greek Catholic. Something that probably does not fit the political and dynastic plans of the Lascarids.

I think the lascarids won't do this, as it'd piss off the orthodox greeks in Greece and moving to mend ties with the pope wouldn't help them with their problems, since the lascarids would rather take the money than give it to the church.

If anything I see them just being autocephalous orthodox until they get to Constantinople/mount althos.

Do the Serbs have a naval fleet? Because I can see how, at the instigation of Venice, Dusan would try to take Corfu. After all, the archipelago is like Thessaloniki - a convenient bridgehead for attacking the flank of his tsardom.

I don't think Dusan would have a navy at all same to otl. If Dusan gets a navy it'd be due to the Venetians giving them a navy, which is the same as announcing the intent of Venice to attack the despotate.

The capture of Taranto and Thessaloniki virtually guarantees that the Despotate will soon take over their entire regions. And this, in turn, means that Sicily will become the first (if not the dominant) power in the eastern Mediterranean.

I think the Despotate would basically be shown to be the rising power of the region after they defeat Dusan and Venice on land and sea, they literally have a free cheque to conquer the former balkans territory of the Empire, and the Regno is basically a shell of its former self.

Post 1370s would be the 'expansionary' phase for the Despotate. It's more about 'how much' the Despotate would conquer during this phase, and I see them crossing over to Anatolia after the death of Timur.

As for the third war between Venice and Genoa itself, I think it should have significant butterflies. Namely, this will be the last in a series of conflicts between the two merchant republics. I imagine its course as follows: either Venice will quickly win and Genoa's possessions will be partitioned (Corsica to Aragon, the rest to Byzantium, the city itself is subordinated to Milan, in return Venice receives new trade privileges), or Genoa drags it out and Sicily and Hungary enter the game and then a similar situation with Venice (they are obviously redistributing the territory + maybe Sardinia for Genoa?)

tbf I think the end of the Venetian-genoan war would be that both sides lose. Both get really damaged from the war, and Aragon and the Lascarids move into opportunities where it once would be controlled by Venice and Genoa.

And Corfu was a mighty stronghold, one of the strongest castles in Greece. Angelokastro was also impregnable, a true eyrie. It will difficult to lose such castles to anything other than a lengthy siege.

It could be bc the defenders know that their masters won't be able to save them, lose heart, and surrender so that they could leave for Naples. After all, sieges are more about how much are you willing to go through.

 

[Whiteshore]

- The Despotate: I left the border at Thessaly for ease of mapmaking, likewise for Sicily. More detailed maps will come in the GIF format, but for ease of map making I left it as is for Mainland Italy.

On that note, that island they have is temptingly close to The City itself.

 

[X Oristos]

It could be bc the defenders know that their masters won't be able to save them, lose heart, and surrender so that they could leave for Naples. After all, sieges are more about how much are you willing to go through.

Well I meant that now that Theodore holds these castles, it will be difficult to lose them. In order for the angevin garrison to give up, a lengthy siege took place and they had to watch the last angevin fleet getting smashed in front of them. As you said, at that point they knew there would be no relief.

 

[Project98]

I think the end of the Venetian-genoan war would be that both sides lose. Both get really damaged from the war, and Aragon and the Lascarids move into opportunities where it once would be controlled by Venice and Genoa

Yea but either ones have huge consequences for north Italy , and probably south France , and Switzerland, and south Germany .
Both port cities are not really important by themselves , Venice literally is the OG of perfidious diplomacy , without them literally the est Padania plain Will consolidated early .

 

[Quinkana]

Well I meant that now that Theodore holds these castles, it will be difficult to lose them. In order for the angevin garrison to give up, a lengthy siege took place and they had to watch the last angevin fleet getting smashed in front of them. As you said, at that point they knew there would be no relief.

Yeah, I think the Despotate would have a much easier time keeping corfu, after all, smuggling from the mainland is now a possibility for the Lascarids, which would relieve the besieged and keep them alive for long periods of time.

Yea but either ones have huge consequences for north Italy , and probably south France , and Switzerland, and south Germany .
Both port cities are not really important by themselves , Venice literally is the OG of perfidious diplomacy , without them literally the est Padania plain Will consolidated early .

I think perfidious diplomacy would be done by someone else, it's just not going to be the Venetians. Maybe it's the Genoese who do it, or Navarre, Burgundy, or England. Its more that Europe is fractured into a system where playing your enemies against each other is a lot more doable than in other places where empires are predominant and the balance of power is very unbalanced.

 

[Project98]

Yeah, I think the Despotate would have a much easier time keeping corfu, after all, smuggling from the mainland is now a possibility for the Lascarids, which would relieve the besieged and keep them alive for long periods of time.

I think perfidious diplomacy would be done by someone else, it's just not going to be the Venetians. Maybe it's the Genoese who do it, or Navarre, Burgundy, or England. Its more that Europe is fractured into a system where playing your enemies against each other is a lot more doable than in other places where empires are predominant and the balance of power is very unbalanced.

Yes in part it is true but you have to consider that when other powers do a volte face,it is one time off or there internal or dynastic consequences to be had .
For example if genoa change his alliance it probably carries instability because the political consequences would see a little civil war.
Venice never had this problem in its internal factions.

 

[Quinkana]

Yes in part it is true but you have to consider that when other powers do a volte face,it is one time off or there internal or dynastic consequences to be had .
For example if genoa change his alliance it probably carries instability because the political consequences would see a little civil war.
Venice never had this problem in its internal factions.

I'm justing Genoa as an example of a city state, but it defo could be any of the smaller nations that needs to pull on other nations to get big. Burgundy would be a cool place where this started if they manage to play France against the HRE.

tbf the pope is already weakened from otl. their inability to get the despotate to acquiesce to their demands would make other ppl move against papal interests in Italy, and I see the Visconti being important allies to the Lascarids as they tried to conquer a lot of Italy during this period against papal interests. The loss of papal influence would happen much earlier than otl as a result...

 

[Lascaris]

That doesn't bode well for the Hungarians. Lackfi managed to alienate a lot of neapolitan lords. He also faced challenges controlling some of his German mercenaries. The other problem is that Louis has raised the population of Naples against the Hungarians. If Naples falls, which is likely considering the sea blockade, it is plausible to be sacked, something that will give Lajos a dark reputation in the Regno. And a sack on top of the plague will be disastrous.

Just as importantly Louis has likely got the barons mobilized. Their collective posteriors being now on the line between these evul peasant stealing centralized Sicilians and the only somewhat better Hungarians is likely doing wonders in that direction. Which is good news for Louis, not as good news for Theodore and Stephen.

On the other hand, there is a good possibility that Louis defeats Lackfi. The voivode was a loyal follower of Lajos. If he is defeated, he can always retreat to Basilicata and use the lascarid strongholds there as bases for raids. While the German mercenaries had a fickle loyalty, the Hungarians and Cumans constitute a sizeable loyal army.

The Cumans, having been pastoralists in Hungary, will love Basilicata. Speaking of which, the albanian clans in the Despotate might also love Basilicata, The terrain is very suitable for their style of pastoralism.

First annex the place then look if you are going to introduce additional settlers...

John VI has an opportunity to reclaim Drama and Christopolis, possibly even Serres. The Thessaloniki militia can also attempt to capture Pydna/ Kitros and establish communications with the castle of Platamon. Or try to capture Veria as John VI did in OTL.

Dusan still has the numbers to deal with all that. The reason he has only 20,000 men in Thessaly is that he has several thousand dealing successfully with exactly that kind of thing in Macedonia.

Without Basilicata and Terra Di Otranto, the ATL Regno (Calabria is excluded) loses 21,46% of its pre-plague population.

But only about 15% of its post-plague population. Overall the post plague TTL regno would have ~844,000 people. The despotate's Italian holdings ~609,000. If you remove Basilicata and Otranto from the regno, it becomes 719,000 to 734,000. If Bari also goes to the despotate you get to 671,000 to 782,000. Either way it means the Italian half of the despotate is a match on its own population wise to the kingdom of Naples.

At this point, the Despotate has the upper hand in any war with Naples. The Angevins do not pose the same threat any more. I expect Theodore or Alexandros at a later time to try to capture all of Apulia. Terra di Bari is needed to protect Terra di Otranto and Basilicata. The rest of Apulia (Terra di Bari & Capitanata) is also a very strategic region: one of the few net grain exporters located close to the sea in the whole Mediterranean. Dalmatia and Naples are fed with apulian (and sicilian) wheat. Naples can import sardinian wheat but Dalmatia has few choices and the best of them is greek wheat - mostly controlled by the Despotate as well. Venice is also fed with apulian wheat- oops.

Well Venice can always... pragmatically stay at peace with the despot and happily continue to trade. Of course if the despotate wins this one in Italy the question remains is the despot either Theodore or the next one is also willing to happily stay at peace or starts getting ideas of his own... Alexandros imperial pedigree or not start life at the mercy of Michael VIII and with all of a quartet of galleys. Theodore and Ioannis were raised in a realm that was growing but was still fighting for its life. The younger Alexandros now? He got born and raised when the despotate was an established power and was beating the house of Barcelona's attempt to bring it down with a 10 foot club. In all likehood he is way more confident or even arrogant than his dad and granddad.

And then you have Bari, the capital of Byzantine Italy for centuries. Its loss was lamented as the expulsion of the Romans from Italy.

Bari is useful on purely strategic grounds as well...

And Corfu was a mighty stronghold, one of the strongest castles in Greece. Angelokastro was also impregnable, a true eyrie. It will difficult to lose such castles to anything other than a lengthy siege.

It took Gryphon and Buas 7-8 months to starve out the Angevin garrison one notes with a friendly island population and complete naval superiority...

 

[X Oristos]

Yea but either ones have huge consequences for north Italy , and probably south France , and Switzerland, and south Germany .
Both port cities are not really important by themselves , Venice literally is the OG of perfidious diplomacy , without them literally the est Padania plain Will consolidated early .

To be the devil's advocate, even if Venice is reduced in power there are a lot of powers that won't like to see a Milan-dominated Padania. Florence, the Pope, the Emperor, France and the Swiss. Having said that, it will be difficult for the HRE and France to focus on Padania for a protacted period of time, at least not until the HYW is over. With the coming schism, the Papacy's influence will be much reduced. Florence cannot easily reach the OTL venetian levels of power and the Swiss won't be a peer power. I see Ticino being milanese. Moreover, I think that if Venice loses part of her Stato da Màr, it will lead to a greater involvement in Veneto and Lombardy and an earlier clash with the Visconti. Venice will still be rich and the main port of the north italian trade due to geography. I suspect that a loss of the overseas empire will lead to an earlier focus on industry (as in OTL) and banking (as was the case of Genoa). So, Venice will still be powerful, much stronger than Pisa or Ancona but less strong than OTL. I suspect Venice will be similar in power to Florence.

I agree with @Quinkana that Milan can be a natural ally of the Despotate. Lombardy also will be an important trade partner, importing raw cotton and silk and exporting armor and textiles.

There have been several mentions on the Despotate's elevated debt. I think it makes sense that the War of the Straits can provide a splendid opportunity to reduce the debt. With the Genoese and Venetians embarking upon a brutal trade war, the Despotate can continue its trade with the Mamluks, especially since there is a reduced naval commitment. After all, the squadron at the Bay of Naples can mostly pay itself by raiding Campania - the de Lauria recipe. I expect the Sicilians and Monemvasiots to increase their market share in the lucrative levantine market.

The most important export items that the Despotate has to offer to the Mamluks are state monopolies: bullion silver and mastic. So, the state has a lot of leverage over its merchants. Then, the Despotate has abundance of another item the Egyptians sought: olive oil. In OTL, the Venetians shipped large quantities of apulian olive oil to Egypt, with a gross profit of 50-100%. Apulian oil basically means Terra d'Otranto oil, since Capitanata and Terra di Bari specialized in grain production. At this point, the Despotate is perhaps the biggest producer of good quality olive oil in the Mediterranean. Then, there is the iron trade, strictly forbidden by the Pope, but the Despotate is already under a papal interdict. The gross profit of iron in Alexandria reached 300%! Lastly, there is lead that produced a 100% net profit in Alexandria. It happens that in Lavrio, close to Athens there are heaps of lead, by-product of the ancient mines.

But what does silver, mastic, olive oil, lead and iron buy ? Spices and cotton!
- The net profit of pepper was 40-60%.
- The net profit of the high quality levantine cotton was 40-60%.
- The net profit of cloves was around 50%, with nutmeg higher than that
- Rhubarb and camphor had much higher margins.

It is worth mentioning that the spice prices didn't collapse after the plague but held up nicely.

Overall, there is a great deal of wealth in the levantine trade that can help reduce the debt significantly and relatively fast. The source for the figures is Ashtor (1975) "Profits from Trade with the Levant in the Fifteenth Century".

Then, I notice that most of the debt is with genoese bankers. While the Genoese are fighting for trade supremacy, the catalan involvement makes sardinian grain rather difficult to obtain. Genoa absolutely depends on sicilian grain. I am sure the Genoese will be amenable to slightly reduce Theodore's debt if he can ensure a steady grain supply.

Just as importantly Louis has likely got the barons mobilized. Their collective posteriors being now on the line between these evul peasant stealing centralized Sicilians and the only somewhat better Hungarians is likely doing wonders in that direction. Which is good news for Louis, not as good news for Theodore and Stephen.

Not all of them though, since the lords of Abruzzo have declared for Lajos. Camponeschi specifically, submitted - reluctantly, to Louis only after Lajos had officially given up in 1352. He had continued to defy Naples without even Hungarian troops in the Regno. If his ATL treatment by Lajos is similar to OTL, then he has become the most important noble in Abruzzo, effectively controlling it and has gained new fiefs in Campania. Now even if the Hungarians retreat from the Regno, he can have the support of Theodore to become effectively the ruler of Abruzzo. Peasant-snapping Sicilians are not so evil when they snap your rivals' peasants. If anything, the man didn't lack ambition to rise beyond his station. The man showed his opportunistic and independent streak even when Robert was alive and all-powerful. Now Naples is at its lowest and has been bled white.

So while the lords have rallied around Louis, they are restricted to a part of Campania, Molise, Capitanata and Bari. Their ability to raise large armies will be restricted, especially since Campania is a battlefield and the hungarian army has been living off its countryside for two years now. They might defeat Istvan with the help of unrully mercenaries. But to go toe-to-toe with an intact sicilian army? That's another thing altogether.

 

[galileo-034]

Then, I notice that most of the debt is with genoese bankers. While the Genoese are fighting for trade supremacy, the catalan involvement makes sardinian grain rather difficult to obtain. Genoa absolutely depends on sicilian grain. I am sure the Genoese will be amenable to slightly reduce Theodore's debt if he can ensure a steady grain supply.

If I tracked it right, Lascarid 'foreign debt' is quite recent, unlike that of the Neapolitan Angevins, and before that had a longstanding conservative fiscal policy.
Counting on their seizure of Rhodes, Angevin Greece, Corfu, and the Val di Mazara, plus their control of the sea, and one should think they should not have too much trouble serviving on that debt.

Now, Genoa being at war offers a good opportunity to repay that debt early.

There is indeed the grain for exports to Genoa itself, and taxes on Sicilian grain exports should help servicing the debt. The problem remains though about how this grain is going to end up in Genoa. Are Genoses merchants going themselves to Palermo and Messina to load it? Or would it be Messinese crews making the trip to Genoa to unload their merchandise? There is to consider the security of that trade against Aragonese raids, and the willingness of Theodore to walk the tightrope between supporting Genoa and avoiding being dragged into this new war.

This same question applies to use of Lascarid ports for Genoese warships. Unlike Venice, Genoa's position in the Straits and the Black Sea has become reliant on the use of Lascarid ports for stopovers and resupply. Even without a formal alliance, Genoa is too useful an ally and a trade partner to be let down, especially given their decisive support of Lascarids under Vignoso's command. Letting Genoese galleys use Lascarid ports is only going to increase the ire of Venice and Aragon at them, and with the war still ongoing in the Regno and against Serbia, one might wonder how far Peter IV or Venitian commanders might be willing to accomodate Lascarid 'neutrality' and not raid 'by accident' Genoese ships into Lascarid waters, even into Lascarid ports, if they think they go away with it.
That also means the Lascarids can ask for a 'premium' from Genoa for the use of their ports; it would be practical if the 'rent' of Lascarid port for Genoese warships was to match the debt repayments owed by the Despotate.

 

[Lascaris]

Yea Venice is screwed indefinitely worse than otl , there is no long arduous decline no continuing ottoman trade to sustain themselves on , there is not even a century of peace to drastically stay in the lagoon .
This venice will become Ravenna and Pisa a landlocked city.
Even if they win the war to Genoa , there is no winning literally because they still lose their empire .
In this universe Milan and Florence will gobble up much more without difficulties .
There will probably no huge counter alliance to a rising power .
Literally there will no been concept of balance of powers.
Without that there is no ossicization of the mercenaries system.
It means a only German swiss state .
It means literally that the pope is even less relevant that otl .
Probably Venice will not survive the 1500s.

Venice is screwed indefinitely worse if it goes at war with the despots of Sicily, or the despots of Sicily go to war with it and decisively losses said war. Otherwise it continues happily trading with them and milking her colonies. Now both sides have reasons that could lead them to go to war but I must not both have avoided it for the past 70 years despite said reasons.

 

[pls don't ban me]

So the 1350's Map is attached below. Some notes:
- North Africa has been added!
- The Northern Balkans / slightly better North Italy as well!
- Anatolian Beyliks: Really sticking to coastal beyliks right now, as those are the ones that most impact the story. Sadly Dark Green Ottomans have consolidated Northwestern Asia Minor by this point :/ I did leave that bit of land by Lesbos (Aren't there some mines there mentioned some parts ago?) and a bit of land right across from Konstantinople as those are most likely still controlled or influenced by John VI at this point in time?
- The Despotate: I left the border at Thessaly for ease of mapmaking, likewise for Sicily. More detailed maps will come in the GIF format, but for ease of map making I left it as is for Mainland Italy.
- Bulgaria: It was noted Phillipopolis and some surrounding forts were transferred to them from Rhomania, but no mention was made of Messembria so I've left that to the ERE.
- The ERE: No formal border was established with Serbia as they are continuously at war, but it was mentioned Ioannis VI was besieging Serres, and I would assume he is not mad enough to go too far from his zone of control, so I've set the border there roughly until a more formal border is mentioned.

View attachment 890390

P.S. Sorry about the border gore for Hungary/Serbia in N. Balkans, but the lack of a Danube river is really not helping me here...

if want you can edit it and add the genoese holdings int he black sea: Caffa and Matrega

 

[Project98]

Venice is screwed indefinitely worse if it goes at war with the despots of Sicily, or the despots of Sicily go to war with it and decisively losses said war. Otherwise it continues happily trading with them and milking her colonies. Now both sides have reasons that could lead them to go to war but I must not both have avoided it for the past 70 years despite said reasons.

Yea but it was before the ere collapsing and the Serb invading , now the despotate is the probable heir to it .
The status quo can't be maintained indefinitely.

 

[galileo-034]

Thessaly, October 1350

The campaign season was nearing to its close. No great battle had taken place. The Serbs had gained some more ground securing Trikala. But the Sicilian army was also intact still in the field and not particularly smaller than the Serb one. Alexandros and Michael Philanthropenos had 15,000 men under arms. Dusan had 20,000. Till the Sicilian army got decisively defeated Dusan would still need to have the better part of his army tied down in Thessaly...

How much cavalery and infantry on each side?

Dusan still has the numbers to deal with all that. The reason he has only 20,000 men in Thessaly is that he has several thousand dealing successfully with exactly that kind of thing in Macedonia.

How many?
I'm thinking that since the Lascarids have showed time and time again their willingness to shift manpower and other resources at theater level, between Greece, Sicily and Calabria, then a similar maneuver at smaller, regional scale might be attempted, depending on the quality of forces at disposal, or rather, their speed.

My idea of it would be like taking half their forces from Thessaly to Thessaloniki, with some dose of age old Greek style ruse to conceal the move (and make the Lascarid force in Thessaly bigger than it is, so they don't expect a threat elsewhere for example), concentrate fast against and destroy the Serbian force surrounding Thessaloniki and then Veria with local numerical superiority, and rush through the mountain passes along the Haliakmon river and cut Serb lines from Thessaly to Skopje, before the main Serbian force can race back from the plains of Thessaly, and seizing a highly defensive ground where they can force battle on favorable terms against the main Serb army, perhaps a river crossing somewhere north of Servia where Cuman archers could do a wonder of shooting down the many Serbs trying to force the passage. If that's realistic and feasible.

 

[X Oristos]

That also means the Lascarids can ask for a 'premium' from Genoa for the use of their ports; it would be practical if the 'rent' of Lascarid port for Genoese warships was to match the debt repayments owed by the Despotate.

That's another tool for debt reduction that I hadn't thought of!

Theodore and Ioannis were raised in a realm that was growing but was still fighting for its life. The younger Alexandros now? He got born and raised when the despotate was an established power and was beating the house of Barcelona's attempt to bring it down with a 10 foot club. In all likehood he is way more confident or even arrogant than his dad and granddad.

That's a very good profiling. There is another aspect of it as well: Alexandros is the scion of the three imperial Houses: Hohenstaufen, Lascarids, Palaiologoi. His wife is of the the royal House of Capet and of Navarre. Yet he doesn't have a royal title, he is a mere Despot of Sicily and Duke of Calabria. Others claim royal and imperial titles and yet their realms are weaker than his own.

At the same time comes from a long line of conquerors who have built empires: great-grandpa Ioannis Vatatzes, grandpa Alexandros, uncle and father. Especially his nameshake will have been lionized: the true heir of the Hohenstaufen, reaching Sicily's shores from across the sea when he learns that his grandfather's subjects had revolted against the wicked usurper. Then, he embarked on reclaiming what was his and rebuilding the realm.

Ioannis and Theodore grew up being tutored by their reserved father. Alexandros and uncle Alexios provided the example to be emulated. As you mention, Alexandros grows up in a different environment.

Overall, I think it would be plausible that Alexandros aspires for a royal title and to be seen as equal to his father and grandfather. Even if he doesn't assume such title due to any political realities, I believe he will be an ambitious ruler.

 

[Asasyn13]

Overall, I think it would be plausible that Alexandros aspires for a royal title and to be seen as equal to his father and grandfather. Even if he doesn't assume such title due to any political realities, I believe he will be an ambitious ruler.

I think that Alexandros II will seek to have his title of Despot of Sicily recognized as equivalent to European royal titles.

 

[Lascaris]

Not all of them though, since the lords of Abruzzo have declared for Lajos. Camponeschi specifically, submitted - reluctantly, to Louis only after Lajos had officially given up in 1352. He had continued to defy Naples without even Hungarian troops in the Regno.

Ah Lalle I? He would not be in control of all of Abruzzo. But post Imera he's likely openly flaunting any royal orders not to attack his rivals within Abruzzo. Post the Hungarian invasion he likely sides with them... and continues his take over of Abruzzo while the Hungarians, Sicilians and Angevins conveniently continue killing each others.

Ioannis and Theodore grew up being tutored by their reserved father. Alexandros and uncle Alexios provided the example to be emulated. As you mention, Alexandros grows up in a different environment.

Alexios was still around, probably he has been the closest thing to a grandfather figure, the younger Alexandros had since the elder Alexandros died before he was born and Andronikos II was happily away.

Overall, I think it would be plausible that Alexandros aspires for a royal title and to be seen as equal to his father and grandfather. Even if he doesn't assume such title due to any political realities, I believe he will be an ambitious ruler.

Ok lets agree the younger Alexandros will want a royal title. How does he get one? Self proclaiming himself king of Sicily is not in the cards. Western royal titles eventually are granted either by the pope, or the Holy Roman Emperor. And in the case of the latter you usually need a title that in some form existed already. Visconti was trying to get the title of king of Italy, descending from the Lombard king. Charles the Bold in the same fashion was trying to get again a royal title from the Holy Roman emperor.

So what options does Alexandros or for that matter Theodore have? No chance the pope proclaims either king of Sicily, that would mean stripping the Angevins of the title and alienating the king of Hungary. I don't see the pope doing so. King of Trinacria like the late and not so lamented Frederick III? I short of doubt a Lascarid would take that one seriously. Bribe the Holy Roman emperor to grant you a royal title? What that one would be? And one notes the emperor is Charles IV who is allied to the papacy. Not very good.

Now if you want to be creative there is a solution to this particular problem...

 

[Vince]

I thought Crusader Kings taught us you just need 3 ducal titles to declare yourself king?

 

[galileo-034]

Now if you want to be creative there is a solution to this particular problem...

Remind me, do they still have the imperial crown jewels Anna of Savoy pawned to them?
And how did those guys in Trebizond called themselves again?