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Old November 29th, 2009, 01:38 PM
Alberto Knox Alberto Knox is offline
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William III lives longer

The OTL encounter by William III of England with the velvet coated gentleman was a supremely unlikely one. If he avoids that accident in 1702, he would have many years ahead of him still. Let's give him his biblical 'three score and ten' putting his death somewhere around 1720.

What are the possible implications of William III living on?
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Old November 29th, 2009, 02:02 PM
DrakeRlugia DrakeRlugia is offline
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If Anne dies in 1714 on on schedule, it once more leaves the succession fairly open, as the closest Protestant is the Electress Sophia and her son. This was never popular by the English, and if William III is alive, he might decide to take another wife to sire an 'English' heir to the throne. The establishment of William on the English Throne allowed him to remarry and those children would be in line for the succession, albeit behind Anne. Indeed, he may marry not long after the death of Anne's only son and the fact she would have no further children.

William have a good claim to the throne as a grandson of Charles I, so it's not too far-fetched. We could easily see the House of Orange continue to reign in England, perhaps in Union with the Netherlands -- I'm not sure how the Dutch would react to the union as it continues longer, and following William's death might seek to elect a distaff branch of the dynasty (Willem Friso IIRC) as Stadholder, rather than his son who has been born and raised English.
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Old November 29th, 2009, 02:11 PM
Hapsburg Hapsburg is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrakeRlugia View Post
If Anne dies in 1714 on on schedule, it once more leaves the succession fairly open, as the closest Protestant is the Electress Sophia and her son.
This assumes, of course, that the Duke of Gloucester dies as well. If we backtrack by a year or two, we could have that he doesn't. That get rid of that whole rigmarole.
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Old November 29th, 2009, 02:13 PM
pompejus pompejus is offline
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Originally Posted by DrakeRlugia View Post
If Anne dies in 1714 on on schedule, it once more leaves the succession fairly open, as the closest Protestant is the Electress Sophia and her son. This was never popular by the English, and if William III is alive, he might decide to take another wife to sire an 'English' heir to the throne. The establishment of William on the English Throne allowed him to remarry and those children would be in line for the succession, albeit behind Anne. Indeed, he may marry not long after the death of Anne's only son and the fact she would have no further children.

William have a good claim to the throne as a grandson of Charles I, so it's not too far-fetched. We could easily see the House of Orange continue to reign in England, perhaps in Union with the Netherlands -- I'm not sure how the Dutch would react to the union as it continues longer, and following William's death might seek to elect a distaff branch of the dynasty (Willem Friso IIRC) as Stadholder, rather than his son who has been born and raised English.
If Anne and her children die, the children of William III will be the legal successor.
About the Dutch, I suspect that with the influence of Willem III they will appoint his son as stadholder (of most of the provinces). Usually only in a powervacuum they succeeded in getting rid of the stadholder (like when Willem II died and his son Willem III wasn't born yet or when Willem III didn't leave any sucessors behind. Although i must admit that the Dutch won't be happy with it and after William's son died they might appoint a stadholder who isn't king of England (possibly the second son or the Frisian stadholder). Noe that i think about it, it might be interesting if Holland (and Zeeland and Utrecht who usually follow Holland's example) would get rid the English stadholders, while Overijssel and Gelderland remain in personal union with England.
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Old November 29th, 2009, 03:05 PM
DrakeRlugia DrakeRlugia is offline
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Originally Posted by Hapsburg View Post
This assumes, of course, that the Duke of Gloucester dies as well. If we backtrack by a year or two, we could have that he doesn't. That get rid of that whole rigmarole.
Yeah, he could quite possibly survive, and Anne could live longer as well. Anne, however I don't see living much longer, if we give William almost two decades more to live. If Gloucester survives, he definately won't remarry. I suspect that's why he didn't remarry IOTL -- Anne was alive and well, as was her son. There was no need to 'secure' the succession so to speak. If Gloucester dies though, we can see William remarry not long after that. So anywhere from 1702 to 1714 William could reasonably remarry. Any good potential spouses? Probably from a minor German state, or even Scandinavia seems a good possibility. Butterflies may keep Charles XII alive and well -- Ulrika Eleonora, Queen of England, France, Scotland, and Ireland anyone?

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If Anne and her children die, the children of William III will be the legal successor.
About the Dutch, I suspect that with the influence of Willem III they will appoint his son as stadholder (of most of the provinces). Usually only in a powervacuum they succeeded in getting rid of the stadholder (like when Willem II died and his son Willem III wasn't born yet or when Willem III didn't leave any sucessors behind. Although i must admit that the Dutch won't be happy with it and after William's son died they might appoint a stadholder who isn't king of England (possibly the second son or the Frisian stadholder). Noe that i think about it, it might be interesting if Holland (and Zeeland and Utrecht who usually follow Holland's example) would get rid the English stadholders, while Overijssel and Gelderland remain in personal union with England.
A continuing Anglo-Dutch union (for a little while, at least) is quite interesting. I agree, it is probably temporary and after two generations, England and the Netherlands go their separate ways, England for one of his grandsons, and the Netherlands for another. I can see them remaining fairly close however, despite this. It may help the Dutch decline of the 18th century if they are close to the British, perhaps maintaining many territories they lost!

Would an Act of Union or something similar still happen in TTL? I'm leaning towards no, as William has Stuart blood in his veins as a grandson of Charles I, and would be a valid successor in Scotland. Especially if he remarries and has children it seems less of an issue.

There's also the interest of the relationship with France... they went into the crapper as William III was a virulent francophobe. How does he handle the rest of War of the Spanish Successions? Do the butterflies of his longer life mean the war could turn out differently (perhaps better or even worse) for the French? William used the patriotism of the English to fund his war against France, but as it drags on I could definately see them tiring of it and eager to pull England out of the conflict, whilst William feels he must stick it out until the end, especially with his Dutch subjects.
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Old November 29th, 2009, 03:27 PM
Alberto Knox Alberto Knox is offline
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There's also the interest of the relationship with France... they went into the crapper as William III was a virulent francophobe. How does he handle the rest of War of the Spanish Successions? Do the butterflies of his longer life mean the war could turn out differently (perhaps better or even worse) for the French? William used the patriotism of the English to fund his war against France, but as it drags on I could definately see them tiring of it and eager to pull England out of the conflict, whilst William feels he must stick it out until the end, especially with his Dutch subjects.
I'd imagine the War of the Spanish Succession would turn out very differently due to the butterflies of William's survival.

ITTL the Duke of Marlborough would never have been in command of the Anglo-Dutch Army. He and William had had a major falling out by this time and he would no doubt be left sitting back in London for the war's duration.

In fact, the most likely commander is probably William himself, he has clear authority over both the English and Dutch generals and has much experience as a commander already. I can't say for certain how he would fare, but given that he had already commanded large armies on many occassions (unlike Marlborough IOTL) greater early success in the Low Countries and Germany is quite possible.
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Old November 29th, 2009, 07:14 PM
DrakeRlugia DrakeRlugia is offline
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Do you imagine a more decisive victory of the Allies over the French in a TTL where William lives longer? The Habsburgs winning Spain seems quite unlikely (although not impossible, especially of Joseph I has son(s) to succeed him). William may be able to inflict enough damage upon the French that would really boost his reputation. He was definately an able commander as you say, and if he inflicts enough defeats upon France, Louis XIV may be amiable to compromise.

This would make a very interesting TL.
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Old November 29th, 2009, 07:26 PM
Alberto Knox Alberto Knox is offline
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Louis XIV was willing to come to a compromise in 1709 IOTL. In fact he was willing to give up everything except Naples to the Habsburgs and fund his grandson's overthrow in Spain! However, Marlborough and the other allied commnaders wanted Louis to directly use the French army for the overthrow and of course he balked at that and decided to keep fighting.

If William were more reasonable than Marlborough and was willing to take Louis' offer, yes I could imagine an early decisive victory for the Allies with Archduke Karl as Charles III of Spain and much of Italy under the Habsburgs. However, due to William's personal francophobia, I am uncertain if he would take the offer.
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Old November 29th, 2009, 07:47 PM
DrakeRlugia DrakeRlugia is offline
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Ah yes, I recall that compromise in 1709. I am surprised Louis XIV was prepared to see his own grandson overthrown in Spain, but only backed out when the Allies insisted he use his own French troops to do so.

William III was very anti-French, yes, but I'm sure even he would agree to such a treaty that would decisively limit French power in Europe. The Archduke Charles would be King of Spain; he may be unpopular amongst the Castilians, the Catalans and Basques favored him because he favored the traditional loose governing structure, rather than the centralizing tendencies introduced by the French. I have no doubts Charles would probably be quick to betray his allies in Barcelona and would keep the institutions introduced by Philip V simply because they gave him greater power over the affairs of the Kingdom.

I assume the Archduke Charles would receive Spain; France would be allowed to maintain Naples, which would probably go to the former Philip V.... or maybe the Duke of Berry? Milan would go to Austria, as would the former Spanish Lowlands. William may hate Louis XIV and his ambitions, but I think this arrangement would suit him. Perhaps he might even endeavor to see the Spanish Lowlands go to the Dutch, rather than Austria, to ensure Louis XIV is surrounded by potentially hostile neighbors (The Habsburgs in the south once again, and the Dutch to the north)
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Old November 29th, 2009, 08:20 PM
Alberto Knox Alberto Knox is offline
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I assume the Archduke Charles would receive Spain
Same. One thing I've been wondering though: would he have to renounce his succession rights in Austria like Philip did in regard to France IOTL?

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France would be allowed to maintain Naples, which would probably go to the former Philip V.... or maybe the Duke of Berry?
Sounds likely. If Louis actually backs Philip's overthrow he's going to want to try and make amends to him. Giving him Naples seems adequate compensatiom and I can't imagine the Allies overly objecting to it.

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Milan would go to Austria, as would the former Spanish Lowlands. William may hate Louis XIV and his ambitions, but I think this arrangement would suit him. Perhaps he might even endeavor to see the Spanish Lowlands go to the Dutch, rather than Austria, to ensure Louis XIV is surrounded by potentially hostile neighbors (The Habsburgs in the south once again, and the Dutch to the north).
I don't think William would want the whole of the Spanish Netherlands (too many Catholics, its a rebellion waiting to happen). He may take a few choice bits but leave most of it to Austria or (if Austria doesn't want it) one of the German states who fought for the Allies. Hanover perhaps?
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Old November 29th, 2009, 08:45 PM
DrakeRlugia DrakeRlugia is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alberto Knox View Post
Same. One thing I've been wondering though: would have to renounce his succession rights in Austria like Philip did in regard to France IOTL?
Yes, he probably would.

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Sounds likely. If Louis actually backs Philip's overthrow he's going to want to try and make amends to him. Giving him Naples seems adequate compensatiom and I can't imagine the Allies overly objecting to it.
Yeah, that sounds about right. Although Philip V may be hostile to Louis XIV after being dethroned by him. He may want to keep him close and let Berry take Naples.

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I don't think William would want the whole of the Spanish Netherlands (too many Catholics, its a rebellion waiting to happen). He may take a few choice bits but leave most of it to Austria or (if Austria doesn't want it) one of the German states who fought for the Allies. Hanover perhaps?
Hannover really isn't close to the Lowlands -- after William takes what he wants, if the Austrians don't get the rump remains the Palatinate may be the best choice. They're ruled by a Catholic dynasty by this time anyways, were ravaged by the French in the 1680s and 1690s (I believe Mannheim was razed completely?) so it'd be suitable compensation.
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Old November 30th, 2009, 10:01 AM
Alberto Knox Alberto Knox is offline
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Regarding William's potential second marriage, I've been looking around and here are a few candidates:

As suggessted-Ulrika Eleonora of Sweden (Good Protestant stock, not much indication for her fertility however.)

Sophia Dorothea of Hanover (Protestant, intelligent, clearly fertile and strengthens the claim of any children to the English throne).

Princess Louise Dorothea of Prussia
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Old November 30th, 2009, 04:08 PM
DrakeRlugia DrakeRlugia is offline
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Those seem all like good candidates, the first and second are more likely than the Swedish bride, probably, although IMO she'd be the coolest... Simply because Sweden was considered a French satrap throughout the early modern period. French money bankrolled Swedish ambitions, and as late as the reign of Louis XVI French funds supported a coup that allowed the Swedish King to implement an Absolute monarchy.

The Hannoverian match seems the best to strengthen a hold on the English throne and likely to give living children.
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Old November 30th, 2009, 08:49 PM
Parma Parma is offline
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Some teritorial thoughts infavor of the Dutch when William III maries
Sophia of Hannover. Territorial gains for the Netherlands even if it is personal property of william III.
Lingen stays his own domain, a nd will be passed to his, son? the count of Bentheim will need a loan from the Hous of Orange instead of the House of Hannover, with the County as morgage.
As the war of the Spanish succsesion end in favour of William III, Parts of Guelders could go to the dutch Republic in stead of Prusia. The Spanish Netherlands would be partitioned by the Dutch Republic and Austria. Most likely Brabant will be united and Flandres , including the French part will go to the Dutch republic. The rest of the Spanish Netherlands will be refuesed by the Dutch rulers, to open river Scheld for the city of Antwerp is probably already too much to handle for the Regents of Amsterdam.
How ever the line of forts and fortified cities in the North of France is a nice price and a good barrier angainst France.
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Old November 30th, 2009, 09:07 PM
Alex Richards Alex Richards is offline
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Those seem all like good candidates, the first and second are more likely than the Swedish bride, probably, although IMO she'd be the coolest... Simply because Sweden was considered a French satrap throughout the early modern period. French money bankrolled Swedish ambitions, and as late as the reign of Louis XVI French funds supported a coup that allowed the Swedish King to implement an Absolute monarchy.

The Hannoverian match seems the best to strengthen a hold on the English throne and likely to give living children.
Interesting. How does William IV of England, Orange, Holland, Zeeland, Utrecht, Guelders and Overjissel, III of Scotland, II of Ireland and I of Brunswick-Lüneburg sound?
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Old November 30th, 2009, 10:36 PM
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France would be allowed to maintain Naples, which would probably go to the former Philip V.... or maybe the Duke of Berry?
The real problem with this is that it would be very unacceptable to many parties - the English Parliament especially, I'd say, and I suspect the Austrians would have qualms except they were getting something big out of it. It's not for no reason that the anti-French parties generally rejected any offer which involved France gaining any land...at all...I'm not exaggerating...

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Noe that i think about it, it might be interesting if Holland (and Zeeland and Utrecht who usually follow Holland's example) would get rid the English stadholders, while Overijssel and Gelderland remain in personal union with England.
A most intriguing prospect, to be sure.

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Interesting. How does William IV of England, Orange, Holland, Zeeland, Utrecht, Guelders and Overjissel, III of Scotland, II of Ireland and I of Brunswick-Lüneburg sound?
Incorrect Brunswick-Luneberg had had 5 Williams by this point.
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Old December 1st, 2009, 05:48 PM
pompejus pompejus is offline
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Some teritorial thoughts infavor of the Dutch when William III maries
Sophia of Hannover. Territorial gains for the Netherlands even if it is personal property of william III.
Lingen stays his own domain, a nd will be passed to his, son? the count of Bentheim will need a loan from the Hous of Orange instead of the House of Hannover, with the County as morgage.
As the war of the Spanish succsesion end in favour of William III, Parts of Guelders could go to the dutch Republic in stead of Prusia. The Spanish Netherlands would be partitioned by the Dutch Republic and Austria. Most likely Brabant will be united and Flandres , including the French part will go to the Dutch republic. The rest of the Spanish Netherlands will be refuesed by the Dutch rulers, to open river Scheld for the city of Antwerp is probably already too much to handle for the Regents of Amsterdam.
How ever the line of forts and fortified cities in the North of France is a nice price and a good barrier angainst France.
I agree that with a Dutch king on the English trone, the Netherlands will probably get a better deal during the war of Spanish succession, but I suspect that not all of Flanders and Brabant will go to the Netherlands. The Spanish parts of Gueldres and Limburg are likely (with something else to the Prussians) at least to better connect Maastricht to the rest of the Netherlands. I also suspect an increase of Zeelandish Flanders and a land connection to the Netherands so it can be better defended and possibly a Dutch Antwerp (it is far easier to close the ports of Antwerp if you control Antwerp). The rest of the southern Netherlands will go to Austria. Without the Flemish coast and Brabandic backland, the southern Netherlands isn't worth much (at least not before the industrial revolution).

I agree that Lingen will remain connected to the Netherlands. Even if the Dutch provinces decide to appoint a second son as stadholder, instead of the English king, I suspect that Lingen goes to that second son instead of remaining in union with Britain. Bentheim will probably be extremely close to the Netherlands, but that was the situation of most independent German states at the Dutch border, it was even the case for Brandenburgian Cleves. Will they ever become part of the Netherlands? Doubtfull, although you never know how the butterflies claps its wings.

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A most intriguing prospect, to be sure.
I personally like the idea of three different stadholders in the Netherlands: the Frisian stadholders for Friesland, Groningen en Drenthe, the English king for Overrijssel and Gelderland and a relative of the king for Holland, Utrecht and Zeeland.
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Old December 1st, 2009, 06:06 PM
Alberto Knox Alberto Knox is offline
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I personally like the idea of three different stadholders in the Netherlands: the Frisian stadholders for Friesland, Groningen en Drenthe, the English king for Overrijssel and Gelderland and a relative of the king for Holland, Utrecht and Zeeland.
Interesting...yes. Stable?...no.

Sooner or later one of these stadtholders are going to get a little overly ambitious and then...BAM!...we have a Dutch Civil War on our hands!
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Old December 1st, 2009, 08:01 PM
Alex Richards Alex Richards is offline
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Incorrect Brunswick-Luneberg had had 5 Williams by this point.
I was referring to the Electorate of Brunswick-Luneburg actually.
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Old December 1st, 2009, 08:40 PM
pompejus pompejus is offline
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Interesting...yes. Stable?...no.

Sooner or later one of these stadtholders are going to get a little overly ambitious and then...BAM!...we have a Dutch Civil War on our hands!
I don't know about that. The stadholder didn't have that much power. He wasn't a king (although they often tried to be one). The political power in the Netherlands was at the rich merchants in Holland. They had the power and controlled the Netherlands. Ok, as I said the stadholders often tried to gain the power of a king, (Dutch political history of the 17th and 18th century bascly is the strugle of stadholders against the merchants) but in the end they always lost (which is why there were two stadholderless ages).

In this scenario the stadholders have even less power, certainly considering Willem IV and V, who were stadholder over all provinces. The stadholders would not fight amongst themselves. First of all Gelderland, Overijsel, Groningen, Friesland and even Zeeland and Utrecht weren't important. The power in the Netherlands lied in the province of Holland. The merchants of Holland ruled the Netherlands. The stadholder of Holland was the most (perhaps even the only) important. That is why for more than a century there were two stadholders in the Netherlands, the Frisian ones and the stadholder of the other provinces. They never came into conflict, because only the stadholder of Holland was important. That will be the same in this scenario with three stadholders.

Actually I think this system is far more stable than one stadholder for the provinces. Because the stadholder of Holland will have far less influence in the other provinces, so he won't be able to challenge the merchants as effectively, so they remain in power, creating a far more stable situation than the constant power struggle.
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